EFFECTS OF SAMPLE SIZE AND SPECIES TRAITS ON PERFORMANCE OF BIOCLIM IN PREDICTING GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF TREE SPECIES—A CASE STUDY WITH 12 DECIDUOUS QUERCUS SPECIES INDIGENOUS TO CHINA

doi:10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2009.05.005

Abstract

Abstract:

Aims Our objective was to evaluate the performance of BIOCLIM in predicting geographical distributions of tree species in China and to determine the impacts of sample size and species traits on predictive accuracy.
Methods BIOCLIM model was used to predict the geographical distribution of 12 deciduous Quercus species differing in ecological traits and sample sizes. We used data from museum or herbarium collections and 18 layers of grid-data of meteorological variables at 6′×6′ resolution to run the model. We evaluated the quality of model predictions with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Kappa statistic.
Important findings Model performance was improved and the variability in predictive accuracy was reduced with increasing sample size. Reasonable predictions to county-level resolution can be achieved with a sample size of 25 data points. On average, 75-100 observations were found to be sufficient to obtain maximal accuracy. Furthermore, we found that accuracy of BIOCLIM was greater for species with narrower geographical range and limited environmental tolerance than those with broader range and greater tolerance.

Key words: prediction of species distribution, deciduous oak, BIOCLIM model, predictive accuracy, sample size, species traits

SHAO Hui, TIAN Jia-Qian, GUO Ke, Osbert Jianxin Sun. EFFECTS OF SAMPLE SIZE AND SPECIES TRAITS ON PERFORMANCE OF BIOCLIM IN PREDICTING GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF TREE SPECIES—A CASE STUDY WITH 12 DECIDUOUS QUERCUS SPECIES INDIGENOUS TO CHINA[J]. Chin J Plant Ecol, 2009, 33(5): 870-877.

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URL: https://www.plant-ecology.com/EN/10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2009.05.005

https://www.plant-ecology.com/EN/Y2009/V33/I5/870

Figures/Tables 6

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分布类型 Types of distribution	物种 Species	样本大小 Sample size
广布型 Broad-ranged	枹栎 Quercus serrata	138
	槲栎 Q. aliena	176
	槲树 Q. dentata	149
	麻栎 Q. acutissima	308
	锐齿槲栎 Q. aliena var. acutiserrata	209
	栓皮栎 Q. variabilis	294
	白栎 Q. fabri	268
	小叶栎 Q. chenii	59
狭域型 Narrow-ranged	辽东栎 Q. wutaishanica	137
	蒙古栎 Q. mongolica	89
	北京槲栎 Q. aliena var. pekingensis	47
	大叶栎 Q. griffithii	70

分布类型 Types of distribution	物种 Species	样本大小 Sample size
广布型 Broad-ranged	枹栎 Quercus serrata	138
	槲栎 Q. aliena	176
	槲树 Q. dentata	149
	麻栎 Q. acutissima	308
	锐齿槲栎 Q. aliena var. acutiserrata	209
	栓皮栎 Q. variabilis	294
	白栎 Q. fabri	268
	小叶栎 Q. chenii	59
狭域型 Narrow-ranged	辽东栎 Q. wutaishanica	137
	蒙古栎 Q. mongolica	89
	北京槲栎 Q. aliena var. pekingensis	47
	大叶栎 Q. griffithii	70

准确度 Accuracy	AUC	Kappa
较差 Poor	0.5 ~ 0.6	0 ~ 0.2
一般 Fair	0.6 ~ 0.7	0.2 ~ 0.4
较准确 Good	0.7 ~ 0.8	0.4 ~ 0.6
很准确 Very good	0.8 ~ 0.9	0.6 ~ 0.8
极准确 Excellent	0.9 ~ 1.0	0.8 ~ 1.0

准确度 Accuracy	AUC	Kappa
较差 Poor	0.5 ~ 0.6	0 ~ 0.2
一般 Fair	0.6 ~ 0.7	0.2 ~ 0.4
较准确 Good	0.7 ~ 0.8	0.4 ~ 0.6
很准确 Very good	0.8 ~ 0.9	0.6 ~ 0.8
极准确 Excellent	0.9 ~ 1.0	0.8 ~ 1.0

物种 Species	AUC		Kappa
物种 Species	F	p	F	p
麻栎 Q. acutissima	2.139	0.173	0.275	0.842
栓皮栎 Q. variabilis	3.511	0.069	1.121	0.396
白栎 Q. fabri	2.674^*	0.148	1.395	0.313