Predicting potential geographical distributions and patterns of the relic plant Gymnocarpos przewalskii using Maximum Entropy and Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction

doi:10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2010.11.010

Abstract

Abstract:

Aims Understanding the geographical distribution and patterns of endemic species is critical to biodiversity conservation and biogeographical history reconstruction of the area occupied by the species. The ecological niche models (ENMs) are useful techniques to explore the links between the species distribution and the environmental data. The displayed potential habitats for the species, in turn can enable the examination of the predictive abilities of various ENMs. We attempt to determine the potential geographic distributions of the Tertiary relic plant Gymnocarpos przewalskii based on the model of maximum entropy (MAXENT) and genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction (GARP).
Methods Based on sixteen sampled localities and seven environmental layers (isothermality, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration ratio (PER), altitude and soil types), we conducted predictions of G. przewalskii using MAXENT and GARP models. The spatial distribution maps of G. przewalskii with the different environmental suitable values (MAXENT) or overlap index (GARP) displayed the distribution patterns clearly.
Important findings The potential distributions of G. przewalskii with the highest environment suitability are predicted at first in the middle of Hexi corridor and the western Yumen of Gansu Province, the north of Ningxia-Hui Autonomous Region, and the part of the Wulate banner of Inner Mongolia in China. The others are mainly in northwestern Tarim Basin and small isolated areas in northwestern Qaidam Basin. Both MAXENT and GARP produced good predictions for G. przewalskii. However, GARP predicted larger and more continuous suitable habitats around the species’ locations and some isolated and fragmented spatial predictions where the species has never been found or collected before. MAXENT predicted a distribution that is a logical proportion of the study area and removed most of the unlikely isolated habitats.

Key words: Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP), Gymnocarpos przewalskii, leave one out, Maximum Entropy (MAXENT), potential geographic distribution

MA Song-Mei, ZHANG Ming-Li, ZHANG Hong-Xiang, MENG Hong-Hu, CHEN Xi. Predicting potential geographical distributions and patterns of the relic plant Gymnocarpos przewalskii using Maximum Entropy and Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction[J]. Chin J Plant Ecol, 2010, 34(11): 1327-1335.

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URL: https://www.plant-ecology.com/EN/10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2010.11.010

https://www.plant-ecology.com/EN/Y2010/V34/I11/1327

Figures/Tables 5

References 40

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地区 Region	居群地点 Location of population	经度 Longitude	纬度 Latitude	海拔 Altitude (m)	生境 Habitat
甘肃 Gansu	肃南县白银乡公路旁 Beside highway, Baiyin Township, Sunan County	99°34′ E	38°52′ N	2 513	砾石山坡 Gravel slopes
	金塔县鼎新镇黑河 Heihe River, Dingxin Town, Jinta County	99°30′ E	40°18′ N	1 180	山前洪积扇 Piedmont diluvial
	玉门市昌马乡水峡村后 Behind Shuixia Village, Changma Township, Yumen City	96°42′ E	39°48′ N	2 312	干河床 Dry wash
	肃北县水电站后 Behind hydropower station, Subei County	94°53′ E	39°29′ N	2 213	干河床 Dry wash
	阿克塞县公路旁 Beside highway, Akesai County	94°16′ E	38°28′ N	2 636	砾石干河滩 Gravel dry beach
	柳园县车站附近 Nearby the Liuyuan County station	95°24′ E	39°6′ N	1 789	砾石洪积扇 Gravel diluvial
宁夏 Ningxia	中卫市沙坡头 Shapotou, Zhongwei City	105°11′ E	37°31′ N	1 128	干河床砾石堆 Gravel pile of the dry riverbed
内蒙古 Inner Mongolia	阿拉善左旗公路旁 Beside highway, Alashan Zuoqi	105°42′ E	38°48′ N	1 625	山坡砾石 Hillside gravel
新疆 Xinjiang	哈密市庙尔沟公路旁 Beside highway, Miao’ergou, Hami City	93°35′ E	43°5′ N	1 173	砾石干河滩 Gravel dry beach
	奇台县北塔山牧场 Pasture of Beita Mountain, Qitai County	90°28′ E	44°59′ N	1 134	石质残丘 Rocky remnant dunes
	轮台县塔尔拉克乡北5 km 5 km to north Taerlake Township, Luntai County	84°15′ E	41°46′ N	979	砾石戈壁 Gravel gobi
	库车县克孜尔乡千佛洞 Qianfo Caves, Kezier Township, Kuche County	82°24′ E	41°48′ N	1 179	河滩砾石堆 Gravel pile of the beach
	拜城县北10 km 10 km to north Baicheng County	81°50′ E	41°49′ N	1 260	砾石堆 Gravel pile
	柯坪县县城北10 km公路旁 Beside highway, 10 km to north Keping County	79°4′ E	40°33′ N	1 175	水坝旁山坡 Slopes beside the Dam
	疏附县乌帕乡东10 km公路旁 Beside highway, 10 km to east Wupa Township, Shufu County	75°50′ E	39°25′ N	1 359	山前洪积扇 Piedmont diluvial
	乌恰县康苏镇东5 km公路旁 Beside highway, 5 km to east Kangsu Town, Wuqia County	75°06′ E	39°42′ N	2 198	砾石戈壁 Gravel gobi

地区 Region	居群地点 Location of population	经度 Longitude	纬度 Latitude	海拔 Altitude (m)	生境 Habitat
甘肃 Gansu	肃南县白银乡公路旁 Beside highway, Baiyin Township, Sunan County	99°34′ E	38°52′ N	2 513	砾石山坡 Gravel slopes
	金塔县鼎新镇黑河 Heihe River, Dingxin Town, Jinta County	99°30′ E	40°18′ N	1 180	山前洪积扇 Piedmont diluvial
	玉门市昌马乡水峡村后 Behind Shuixia Village, Changma Township, Yumen City	96°42′ E	39°48′ N	2 312	干河床 Dry wash
	肃北县水电站后 Behind hydropower station, Subei County	94°53′ E	39°29′ N	2 213	干河床 Dry wash
	阿克塞县公路旁 Beside highway, Akesai County	94°16′ E	38°28′ N	2 636	砾石干河滩 Gravel dry beach
	柳园县车站附近 Nearby the Liuyuan County station	95°24′ E	39°6′ N	1 789	砾石洪积扇 Gravel diluvial
宁夏 Ningxia	中卫市沙坡头 Shapotou, Zhongwei City	105°11′ E	37°31′ N	1 128	干河床砾石堆 Gravel pile of the dry riverbed
内蒙古 Inner Mongolia	阿拉善左旗公路旁 Beside highway, Alashan Zuoqi	105°42′ E	38°48′ N	1 625	山坡砾石 Hillside gravel
新疆 Xinjiang	哈密市庙尔沟公路旁 Beside highway, Miao’ergou, Hami City	93°35′ E	43°5′ N	1 173	砾石干河滩 Gravel dry beach
	奇台县北塔山牧场 Pasture of Beita Mountain, Qitai County	90°28′ E	44°59′ N	1 134	石质残丘 Rocky remnant dunes
	轮台县塔尔拉克乡北5 km 5 km to north Taerlake Township, Luntai County	84°15′ E	41°46′ N	979	砾石戈壁 Gravel gobi
	库车县克孜尔乡千佛洞 Qianfo Caves, Kezier Township, Kuche County	82°24′ E	41°48′ N	1 179	河滩砾石堆 Gravel pile of the beach
	拜城县北10 km 10 km to north Baicheng County	81°50′ E	41°49′ N	1 260	砾石堆 Gravel pile
	柯坪县县城北10 km公路旁 Beside highway, 10 km to north Keping County	79°4′ E	40°33′ N	1 175	水坝旁山坡 Slopes beside the Dam
	疏附县乌帕乡东10 km公路旁 Beside highway, 10 km to east Wupa Township, Shufu County	75°50′ E	39°25′ N	1 359	山前洪积扇 Piedmont diluvial
	乌恰县康苏镇东5 km公路旁 Beside highway, 5 km to east Kangsu Town, Wuqia County	75°06′ E	39°42′ N	2 198	砾石戈壁 Gravel gobi

模型 Model	最小存在阈值 Lowest predicted value threshold	预测成功的个数 No. of successes predicted	平均预测的面积比例 Mean fractional area predicted	p
MAXENT	18	16	0.159 4	0.011 2
GARP	9	16	0.226 6	0.020 8

模型 Model	最小存在阈值 Lowest predicted value threshold	预测成功的个数 No. of successes predicted	平均预测的面积比例 Mean fractional area predicted	p
MAXENT	18	16	0.159 4	0.011 2
GARP	9	16	0.226 6	0.020 8