Chin J Plan Ecolo ›› 2006, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (6): 1040-1053.DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2006.0133

• Research Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

REVIEW OF MODELLING THE DISTRIBUTION OF PLANT SPECIES

WANG Juan1,2; NI Jian1*   

  1. 1 Laboratory of Quantitative Vegetation Ecology, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093, China; 2 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Online:2006-11-30 Published:2006-11-30
  • Contact: NI Jian

Abstract:

Vegetation-climate relationship at the species level has always been a popular research topic in ecology. This review paper summarizes early research and recent research advances on plant species-climate relationship in China and in the world. Especially since the 1980s, when global change study started and rapidly developed, research has focused on relationship between plant species’ geographical distribution and climate. During the past two decades, predictive models on species’ potential geographical distributions have been well developed. These include statistical models (e.g., correlative models including bioclimatic envelope or climatic envelope models, regression models including generalized linear and generalized additive models, rule-based models including classification and regression tree analysis and artificial neural network, as well as ecological niche models and climatic response models) and mechanistic models (e.g., the STASH model on the basis of BIOME1 biogeographical model, FORSKA forest gap model, the process-based phenology model PHENOFIT, and a model based on water balance, temperature and plant phenology). We compare the advantages and disadvantages of different models, synthesize predictions on the future distribution of plant species in different regions and introduce China’s studies about the potential and future distributions of selected plant species. This review provides back ground knowledge in order to more precisely model and predict the future change of plant species under global change.