TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEM PRODUCTIVITY AND CARRYING CAPACITY IN NORTHEAST CHINA

doi:10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2008.01.007

Abstract

Abstract:

Aims Rapidly growing population and environmental issues have been key problems for the living and sustainable development of humans. In order to provide policy-makers with a theoretical reference, it is urgent to know how terrestrial ecosystem productivity and its carrying capacity in Northeast China will respond to future climatic change. My objective was to simulate net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystems in Northeast China and their carrying capacities, as well as their responses to climatic change.
Methods Values of NPP of the different terrestrial ecosystems were simulated by a natural vegetation NPP model (Zhou & Zhang, 1995) and an agricultural NPP model (Zheng et al., 1997), in terms of land use (forest, agriculture, grassland and wetland) data with a spatial resolution of 10 km×10 km and daily meteorological data from 1980 to 2002 as well as the projected climatic scenarios for 2020, 2050, 2070 and 2100. Ecosystem carrying capacities were given by the carrying capacity model (Cao, 1993) and NPP of agricultural, grassland and wetland ecosystems.
Important findings Mean annual temperature increased, and annual precipitation decreased in Northeast China from 1980 to 2002. Total mean annual terrestrial ecosystem productivity during these 23 years was 3.52×10 ¹¹ kg DM·a^-1. Total mean annual terrestrial ecosystem productivities for forest, agriculture, grassland and wetland ecosystems were 1.53×10¹¹, 4.55×10¹⁰, 1.07×10¹¹ and 4.63×10¹⁰ kg DM·a^-1, respectively. Mean annual terrestrial ecosystem productivities for forest, agriculture, grassland and wetland ecosystems were 5.73×10³, 1.84×10³, 5.64×10³ and 5.55×10³ kg DM·hm^-2·a^-1. Total mean annual carrying capacities from 1980 to 2002 were 2.61×10⁸, 2.15×10⁸ and 1.77×10⁸ for well-off, comparatively well-off and surplus consumption levels, respectively. When 350×10⁸ kg commercial grain export from Northeast China was considered, total mean annual carrying capacities from 1980 to 2002 were 1.70×10⁸, 1.40×10⁸ and 1.15×10⁸ for the above three consumption levels, respectively. The population of Northeast China is about 1.07×10⁸ at present. It implied that the population in Northeast China should be controlled in the future, in order to ensure the surplus consumption level and 350×10⁸ kg commercial grain export. Simulated total mean annual carrying capacities of Northeast China in 2020, 2050, 2070 and 2100 were 2.73×10⁸, 2.25×10⁸ and 1.85×10⁸;2.88×10⁸, 2.38×10⁸ and 1.95×10⁸; 3.03×10⁸, 2.49×10⁸ and 2.05×10⁸; and 3.09×10⁸, 2.55×10⁸ and 2.09×10⁸ for the three consumption levels, respectively, in terms of the climatic scenarios for the future. This study provides fundamental information for land resources and social sustainable development.

Key words: terrestrial ecosystem productivity, agricultural productivity, carrying capacity, Northeast China, old northeast industrial base

ZHOU Guang-Sheng, YUAN Wen-Ping, ZHOU Li, ZHENG Yuan-Run. TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEM PRODUCTIVITY AND CARRYING CAPACITY IN NORTHEAST CHINA[J]. Chin J Plant Ecol, 2008, 32(1): 65-72.

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URL: https://www.plant-ecology.com/EN/10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2008.01.007

https://www.plant-ecology.com/EN/Y2008/V32/I1/65

Figures/Tables 10

Table 1 Criterion of nutrition and food distribution proportion for different consumption levels

类型 Types	营养标准(人) Criterion of different nutrition				粮食分配比例 Distribution proportion (%)
类型 Types	热量Heat (kJ·d^-1)	蛋白质Protein (g·d^-1)	脂肪Fat (g·d^-1)		口粮 Grain ration	饲料粮 Feed stuff	工业及其它用粮 Others
宽裕型 Well-off 小康型 Comparatively well-off 富裕型 Surplus consumption	11 297 11 715 11 924	75 85 90	25 36 42		53.8 43.8 34.2	25.0 31.3 39.4	21.2 24.9 29.4

Table 2 Climatic change scenarios over Northeast China in 2020, 2050, 2070, and 2100

年代 Year	2020				2050				2070				2100
年代 Year	春¹⁾	夏²⁾	秋³⁾	冬⁴⁾	春¹⁾	夏²⁾	秋³⁾	冬⁴⁾	春¹⁾	夏²⁾	秋³⁾	冬⁴⁾	春¹⁾	夏²⁾	秋³⁾	冬⁴⁾
温度 Temperature (℃)	2.3	1.8	1.6	1.7	3.7	2.9	3.0	3.2	5.2	4.1	3.8	4.8	5.7	4.4	4.3	5.2
降水 Precipitation (%)	4	3	1	3	8	5	-2	12	13	7	2	17	17	10	2	21

Fig.1 Net primary productivities (NPP) of different vegetations in Northeast China

Fig.2 Annual mean temperatures for regions of different vegetations in Northeast China

Fig.3 Annual mean precipitations for regions of different vegetations in Northeast China

Fig.4 Population carrying capacities in Northeast China for different consumption levels

Fig.5 Net primary productivities (NPP) of different vegetations in Northeast China under climatic change scenarios in 2020, 2050, 2070, and 2100

Fig.6 Temperature dynamics for regions of different vegetationsin Northeast China in the future

Fig.7 Precipitation dynamics for regions of different vegetations in Northeast China in the future

Fig.8 Population carrying capacities in Northeast China for different consumption levels under climatic change scenarios in 2020, 2050, 2070, and 2100

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