Chin J Plan Ecolo ›› 2008, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (1): 65-72.doi: 10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2008.01.007
• Research Articles •
ZHOU Guang-Sheng1,2; YUAN Wen-Ping2; ZHOU Li2; ZHENG Yuan-Run2
Aims Rapidly growing population and environmental issues have been key problems for the living and sustainable development of humans. In order to provide policy-makers with a theoretical reference, it is urgent to know how terrestrial ecosystem productivity and its carrying capacity in Northeast China will respond to future climatic change. My objective was to simulate net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystems in Northeast China and their carrying capacities, as well as their responses to climatic change. Methods Values of NPP of the different terrestrial ecosystems were simulated by a natural vegetation NPP model (Zhou & Zhang, 1995) and an agricultural NPP model (Zheng et al., 1997), in terms of land use (forest, agriculture, grassland and wetland) data with a spatial resolution of 10 km×10 km and daily meteorological data from 1980 to 2002 as well as the projected climatic scenarios for 2020, 2050, 2070 and 2100. Ecosystem carrying capacities were given by the carrying capacity model (Cao, 1993) and NPP of agricultural, grassland and wetland ecosystems. Important findings Mean annual temperature increased, and annual precipitation decreased in Northeast China from 1980 to 2002. Total mean annual terrestrial ecosystem productivity during these 23 years was 3.52×1011 kg DM8226;a－1. Total mean annual terrestrial ecosystem productivities for forest, agriculture, grassland and wetland ecosystems were 1.53×1011, 4.55×1010, 1.07×1011 and 4.63×1010 kg DM8226;a－1 , respectively. Mean annual terrestrial ecosystem productivities for forest, agriculture, grassland and wetland ecosystems were 5.73×103, 1.84×103, 5.64×103 and 5.55×103 kg DM8226;hm-28226;a－1. Total mean annual carrying capacities from 1980 to 2002 were 2.61×108, 2.15×108 and 1.77×108 for well-off, comparatively well-off and surplus consumption levels, respectively. When 350×108 kg commercial grain export from Northeast China was considered, total mean annual carrying capacities from 1980 to 2002 were 1.70×108, 1.40×108 and 1.15×108 for the above three consumption levels, respectively. The population of Northeast China is about 1.07×108 at present. It implied that the population in Northeast China should be controlled in the future, in order to ensure the surplus consumption level and 350× 108 kg commercial grain export. Simulated total mean annual carrying capacities of Northeast China in 2020, 2050, 2070 and 2100 were 2.73×108, 2.25×108 and 1.85×108；2. 88×108, 2.38×108 and 1.95×108; 3.03×108, 2.49×108 and 2.05×108; and 3.09×108 , 2.55×108 and 2. 09×108 for the three consumption levels, respectively, in terms of the climatic scenarios for the future. This study provides fundamental information for land resources and social sustainable development.
ZHOU Guang-Sheng, YUAN Wen-Ping, ZHOU Li, ZHENG Yuan-Run. TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEM PRODUCTIVITY AND CARRYING CAPACITY IN NORTHEAST CHINA[J].Chin J Plan Ecolo, 2008, 32(1): 65-72.
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