中国草地和欧洲木本植物返青期对气温和降水变化的响应: 基于生存分析的研究

周彤,曹入尹,王少鹏,陈晋,唐艳鸿

Responses of green-up dates of grasslands in China and woody plants in Europe to air temperature and precipitation: Empirical evidences based on survival analysis

ZHOU Tong,CAO Ru-Yin,WANG Shao-Peng,CHEN Jin,TANG Yan-Hong

表2 升温1 、2 和3 ℃下内蒙古、青藏高原和欧洲地区返青期提前天数的平均值(从3月1日起每天比2009年升温1、2和3 ℃)

Table 2 The mean advanced days of green-up date for the two grasslands in Nei Mongol and the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, and woody plants in Europe under three warming scenarios: elevated spring temperature at +1, +2 and +3 °C for each day as compared with the days from March 1st, 2009.

升温情景 Warming scenarios (℃) 内蒙古 Nei Mongol 青藏高原 Qinghai-Xizang Plateau 欧洲 Europe 生存分析法 Survival analysis 线性回归法 Linear analysis p 生存分析法 Survival analysis 线性回归法 Linear analysis p 生存分析法 Survival analysis 线性回归法 Linear analysis p + 1 0.92 0.13 0.04 3.56 1.87 < 0.001 5.66 4.47 < 0.001 + 2 2.33 0.26 0.01 7.29 3.74 < 0.001 10.5 8.94 < 0.001 + 3 4.17 0.39 < 0.01 10.88 5.61 < 0.001 14.06 13.41 < 0.001