气候变暖背景下青藏高原草本植物物候变化空间换时间预测

李雪莹, 朱文泉, 李培先, 谢志英, 赵涔良

Predicting phenology shifts of herbaceous plants on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under climate warming with the space-for-time method

LI Xue-Ying, ZHU Wen-Quan, LI Pei-Xian, XIE Zhi-Ying, ZHAO Cen-Liang

表3 青藏高原车前和蒲公英各物候事件和地理因子回归分析建模结果

Table 3 Regression modeling results between each phenological event of Plantago asiatica and Taraxacum mongolicum and geographic factors across the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

年份 Year	车前展叶始期 FLD of P. asiatica								蒲公英展叶始期 FLD of T. mongolicum
年份 Year	R²	a (d·°^-1)	b (d·°^-1)		c (d·m^-1)		d		R²	a (d·°^-1)		b (d·°^-1)		c (d·m^-1)		d
2002	0.95^*	1.1	6.3^*		0.033 8^*		-342.3		0.95^*	1.2		6.2^*		0.043 8^*		-382.8
2003	0.98^*	0.7	6.8^*		0.036 2^*		-318.3		1.00^*	0.9^*		6.3^*		0.045 2^*		-362.8
2004	0.95^*	1.0	6.9^*		0.036 7^*		-355.0		0.92^*	1.3		6.1^*		0.041 2^*		-383.3
2005	0.90^*	1.0	5.9^*		0.032 9^*		-320.1		0.92^*	1.7		6.1^*		0.043 2^*		-428.5
2006	0.96^*	1.5^*	6.7^*		0.037 3^*		-404.9		0.92^*	2.0^*		6.6^*		0.044 2^*		-470.6
2007	0.91^*	1.6	5.9^*		0.040 0^*		-398.6		0.93^*	1.9^*		5.7^*		0.047 8^*		-448.9
2008	0.85^*	1.5	5.0^*		0.032 7^*		-327.8		0.99^*	1.4^*		5.7^*		0.045 0^*		-380.9
2009	0.93^*	1.6^*	5.0^*		0.032 9^*		-340.4		0.91^*	2.0^*		4.3^*		0.039 4^*		-385.8
2010	0.83^*	0.6	4.5^*		0.030 5^*		-212.2		0.85^*	0.9		4.3^*		0.041 5^*		-274.2
2011	0.67	0.7	4.5^*		0.025 1		-199.5		0.70^*	0.9		4.3		0.037 3^*		-254.7
年份 Year	车前开花始期 FFD of P. asiatica								蒲公英开花始期 FFD of T. mongolicum
年份 Year	R²	a (d·°^-1)		b (d·°^-1)		c (d·m^-1)		d	R²		a (d·°^-1)		b (d·°^-1)		c (d·m^-1)		d
2002	0.76^*	-0.1		3.9^*		0.023 2^*		-45.1	0.88^*		0.5		6.9^*		0.047 9^*		-306.5
2003	0.96^*	0.9		5.3^*		0.032 2^*		-226.1	0.89^*		0.9		6.5^*		0.048 8^*		-334.9
2004	0.95^*	0.8		5.1^*		0.029 8^*		-198.4	0.88^*		2.0		6.5^*		-0.059 6^*		-480.5
2005	0.92^*	1.4^*		3.9^*		0.030 8^*		-215.4	0.91^*		1.7		6.2^*		0.051 7^*		-418.4
2006	0.95^*	1.5^*		4.7^*		0.030 2^*		-248.2	0.89^*		2.3		5.7^*		0.046 7^*		-439.9
2007	0.96^*	2.8^*		2.8^*		0.034 7^*		-330.0	0.91^*		2.1^*		5.5^*		0.054 8^*		-440.4
2008	0.93^*	2.2^*		6.7^*		0.054 7^*		-475.7	0.98^*		3.0^*		4.9^*		0.058 8^*		-523.0
2009	0.83^*	1.9		5.5^*		0.044 6^*		-367.8	0.94^*		2.9^*		3.7^*		0.057 5^*		-470.9
2010	0.73^*	2.7		4.0		0.040 2^*		-378.8	0.89^*		1.6		4.8^*		0.040 2^*		-313.3
2011	0.77^*	2.0		4.8^*		0.037 5^*		-328.6	0.83^*		1.2		6.5^*		0.049 6^*		-360.7
年份 Year	车前黄枯普遍期 LCD of P. asiatica								蒲公英黄枯普遍期 LCD of T. mongolicum
年份 Year	R²	a (d·°^-1)		b (d·°^-1)		c (d·m^-1)		d	R²		a (d·°^-1)		b (d·°^-1)		c (d·m^-1)		d
2002	0.82^*	-2.7^*		-4.0^*		-0.035 8^*		803.2	0.80^*		-2.3		-4.7^*		-0.048 1^*		825.3
2003	0.55	-1.7		-2.9		-0.028 4		646.4	0.74^*		-3.2		-2.9		-0.041 7^*		847.7
2004	0.79^*	-1.3		-3.1^*		-0.020 5^*		593.3	0.71^*		-2.7		-3.2		-0.035 3^*		781.8
2005	0.87^*	-1.2		-4.4^*		-0.031 6^*		666.8	0.86^*		-1.9^*		-4.4^*		-0.042 9^*		769.7
2006	0.84^*	-1.0		-3.8^*		-0.026 6^*		596.2	0.91^*		-2.0^*		-3.9^*		-0.043 6^*		762.4
2007	0.90^*	-1.9^*		-4.1^*		-0.034 8^*		729.8	0.89^*		-2.4^*		-4.4^*		-0.048 7^*		836.1
2008	0.79^*	-2.5^*		-1.8		-0.029 5^*		693.2	0.78^*		-3.0^*		-1.7		-0.039 6^*		775.7
2009	0.96^*	-2.7^*		-3.1^*		-0.031 2^*		763.4	0.90^*		-2.6^*		-4.2^*		-0.044 4^*		831.6
2010	0.91^*	-3.6^*		-2.6		-0.040 3^*		874.7	0.93^*		-3.8^*		-3.0^*		-0.048 3^*		935.5
2011	0.91^*	-2.5^*		-4.0^*		-0.038 6^*		801.5	0.95^*		-3.4^*		-5.2^*		-0.047 4^*		961.1