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植物生态学报 >

2024 , Vol. 48 >Issue 10: 1243 - 1255

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17521/cjpe.2023.0139

研究论文

云南省生态系统碳汇及其对碳中和的贡献

  • 黄玫 ,
  • 石岳 ,
  • 孙文娟 ,
  • 赵霞 ,
  • 常锦峰 ,
  • 方精云
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  • 1中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所生态系统网络观测与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101
    2中国科学院植物研究所植被与环境变化国家重点实验室, 北京 100093
    3浙江大学环境与资源学院, 杭州 310058
    4北京大学城市与环境学院, 北京大学生态研究中心, 地表过程分析与模拟教育部重点实验室, 北京 100871
    5云南大学生态与环境学院, 昆明 650500
*方精云(jyfang@urban.pku.edu.cn)

收稿日期: 2023-05-18

  录用日期: 2023-08-03

  网络出版日期: 2023-08-11

基金资助

云南省科技计划项目(202303AC100009);云南省基础研究专项重大项目(202101BC070002)

收起

Terrestrial carbon sink in Yunnan Province and its contribution to carbon neutrality

  • HUANG Mei ,
  • SHI Yue ,
  • SUN Wen-Juan ,
  • ZHAO Xia ,
  • CHANG Jin-Feng ,
  • FANG Jing-Yun
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  • 1Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093, China
    3College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
    4Institute of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
    5School of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China

Received date: 2023-05-18

  Accepted date: 2023-08-03

  Online published: 2023-08-11

Supported by

Science and Technology Program of Yunnan Province(202303AC100009);Yunnan Fundamental Research Project(202101BC070002)

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摘要

研究区域生态系统碳汇特征对指导地方政府实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。该研究基于云南省生态系统的实测数据和各类统计数据, 全面评估了云南省1981-2020年陆地生态系统碳汇、碳排放以及碳汇对碳中和的贡献, 并研究了清洁能源生产和未来气候变化对云南省碳源汇的影响。评估结果显示, 云南省过去40年陆地生态系统碳汇在12.41-31.22 Tg C·a-1之间变化, 平均为19.41 Tg C·a-1。1981-2020年期间, 云南省生态系统碳汇贡献指数(生态系统碳汇与碳排放之比的百分数)最大值(247%)出现在1981-1985年, 此后持续下降, 2006-2010年至最小值后回升, 2016-2020年该指数为54%。2010年以来, 云南省清洁能源生产规模加大、森林面积增加以及能源强度降低对碳汇贡献指数的回升起到了重要作用。云南省清洁能源的大规模生产在一定程度上满足了经济发展对能源的需求, 使得其经济发展对CO2排放依赖程度有所下降。模型估算结果显示, 在未来RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下, 云南省2020s-2030s的净生态系统生产力可能低于2016-2020年间的水平; 但在2040s-2050s时段可能有所上升。该研究建议, 云南省未来应当进一步发展清洁能源并继续推行节能增效减排, 同时进一步增强生态系统碳汇功能, 以推动“双碳”目标和区域高质量发展的实现。

关键词： 碳中和; 生态系统碳汇; 碳排放; 清洁能源; 云南

本文引用格式

黄玫 , 石岳 , 孙文娟 , 赵霞 , 常锦峰 , 方精云 . 云南省生态系统碳汇及其对碳中和的贡献[J]. 植物生态学报, 2024 , 48(10) : 1243 -1255 . DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2023.0139

Abstract

Aims Exploring the characteristics of carbon source-sink has significant implications for guiding local governments in achieving its “dual carbon” goal. This study comprehensively assessed the dynamics of carbon emissions, terrestrial carbon sinks, the contribution of terrestrial carbon sinks in offsetting carbon emissions, and the impacts of clean energy production on the carbon emissions in Yunnan Province from 1981 to 2020, and further investigated the terrestrial carbon balance in the next four decades projected by coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) earth system models under two climate scenarios.

Methods Two independent methods were used to estimate historical ecosystem carbon sinks in Yunnan Province. One was based on field observation data combined with empirical models, and the other was based on four terrestrial ecosystem models. The projections of future carbon balance in Yunnan Province were derived from five earth system models of CMIP5 under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Carbon emissions were estimated using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, and China’s Provincial Guidelines for Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory.

Important findings The results show that the terrestrial carbon sink in Yunnan Province varied between 12.41 and 31.22 Tg C·a-1 over the past 40 years, with an average sink of 19.41 Tg C·a-1. The highest ratio (247%) of ecosystem carbon sinks to carbon emissions (sink emission ratio) in Yunnan Province occurred during the period from 1981 to 1985, while the ratio has declined since then and reached its lowest value during the period of 2006-2010 followed by a slight increase after that. The ratio was 54% during the period of 2016-2020. The rise of the sink emission ratio in the past decade can be mainly attributed to the promotion of clean energy production, the increase in forest area, and the decrease in energy intensity. Large-scale deployment of clean energy in Yunnan Province has in general satisfied the energy needs of economic development, reducing the reliance of its economy on CO2 emissions. Model projections indicated that under future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in Yunnan Province during the 2020s and the 2030s may be lower than that during 2016-2020, while carbon sink may increase in the 2040s to 2050s. This study suggests that in the future, Yunnan Province should further develop clean energy programs, increase energy efficiency, and enhance ecosystem carbon sink to support both the achievement of carbon neutrality and regional high-quality development.

Key words： carbon neutrality; ecosystem carbon sink; carbon emission; clean energy; Yunnan

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