云南省生态系统碳汇及其对碳中和的贡献

doi:10.17521/cjpe.2023.0139

植物生态学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (10): 1243-1255.DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2023.0139 cstr: 32100.14.cjpe.2023.0139

所属专题：碳循环

• 研究论文 • 下一篇

云南省生态系统碳汇及其对碳中和的贡献

黄玫¹, 石岳², 孙文娟², 赵霞², 常锦峰³, 方精云⁴^,⁵^,^*()

¹中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所生态系统网络观测与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101
²中国科学院植物研究所植被与环境变化国家重点实验室, 北京 100093
³浙江大学环境与资源学院, 杭州 310058
⁴北京大学城市与环境学院, 北京大学生态研究中心, 地表过程分析与模拟教育部重点实验室, 北京 100871
⁵云南大学生态与环境学院, 昆明 650500

收稿日期:2023-05-18 接受日期:2023-08-03 出版日期:2024-10-20 发布日期:2024-12-03
通讯作者: 方精云
基金资助:
云南省科技计划项目(202303AC100009);云南省基础研究专项重大项目(202101BC070002)

Terrestrial carbon sink in Yunnan Province and its contribution to carbon neutrality

HUANG Mei¹, SHI Yue², SUN Wen-Juan², ZHAO Xia², CHANG Jin-Feng³, FANG Jing-Yun⁴^,⁵^,^*()

¹Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
²State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093, China
³College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
⁴Institute of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
⁵School of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China

Received:2023-05-18 Accepted:2023-08-03 Online:2024-10-20 Published:2024-12-03
Contact: FANG Jing-Yun
Supported by:
Science and Technology Program of Yunnan Province(202303AC100009);Yunnan Fundamental Research Project(202101BC070002)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

研究区域生态系统碳汇特征对指导地方政府实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。该研究基于云南省生态系统的实测数据和各类统计数据, 全面评估了云南省1981-2020年陆地生态系统碳汇、碳排放以及碳汇对碳中和的贡献, 并研究了清洁能源生产和未来气候变化对云南省碳源汇的影响。评估结果显示, 云南省过去40年陆地生态系统碳汇在12.41-31.22 Tg C·a^-1之间变化, 平均为19.41 Tg C·a^-1。1981-2020年期间, 云南省生态系统碳汇贡献指数(生态系统碳汇与碳排放之比的百分数)最大值(247%)出现在1981-1985年, 此后持续下降, 2006-2010年至最小值后回升, 2016-2020年该指数为54%。2010年以来, 云南省清洁能源生产规模加大、森林面积增加以及能源强度降低对碳汇贡献指数的回升起到了重要作用。云南省清洁能源的大规模生产在一定程度上满足了经济发展对能源的需求, 使得其经济发展对CO₂排放依赖程度有所下降。模型估算结果显示, 在未来RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下, 云南省2020s-2030s的净生态系统生产力可能低于2016-2020年间的水平; 但在2040s-2050s时段可能有所上升。该研究建议, 云南省未来应当进一步发展清洁能源并继续推行节能增效减排, 同时进一步增强生态系统碳汇功能, 以推动“双碳”目标和区域高质量发展的实现。

关键词: 碳中和, 生态系统碳汇, 碳排放, 清洁能源, 云南

Abstract:

Aims Exploring the characteristics of carbon source-sink has significant implications for guiding local governments in achieving its “dual carbon” goal. This study comprehensively assessed the dynamics of carbon emissions, terrestrial carbon sinks, the contribution of terrestrial carbon sinks in offsetting carbon emissions, and the impacts of clean energy production on the carbon emissions in Yunnan Province from 1981 to 2020, and further investigated the terrestrial carbon balance in the next four decades projected by coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) earth system models under two climate scenarios.

Methods Two independent methods were used to estimate historical ecosystem carbon sinks in Yunnan Province. One was based on field observation data combined with empirical models, and the other was based on four terrestrial ecosystem models. The projections of future carbon balance in Yunnan Province were derived from five earth system models of CMIP5 under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Carbon emissions were estimated using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, and China’s Provincial Guidelines for Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory.

Important findings The results show that the terrestrial carbon sink in Yunnan Province varied between 12.41 and 31.22 Tg C·a^-1 over the past 40 years, with an average sink of 19.41 Tg C·a^-1. The highest ratio (247%) of ecosystem carbon sinks to carbon emissions (sink emission ratio) in Yunnan Province occurred during the period from 1981 to 1985, while the ratio has declined since then and reached its lowest value during the period of 2006-2010 followed by a slight increase after that. The ratio was 54% during the period of 2016-2020. The rise of the sink emission ratio in the past decade can be mainly attributed to the promotion of clean energy production, the increase in forest area, and the decrease in energy intensity. Large-scale deployment of clean energy in Yunnan Province has in general satisfied the energy needs of economic development, reducing the reliance of its economy on CO₂ emissions. Model projections indicated that under future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in Yunnan Province during the 2020s and the 2030s may be lower than that during 2016-2020, while carbon sink may increase in the 2040s to 2050s. This study suggests that in the future, Yunnan Province should further develop clean energy programs, increase energy efficiency, and enhance ecosystem carbon sink to support both the achievement of carbon neutrality and regional high-quality development.

Key words: carbon neutrality, ecosystem carbon sink, carbon emission, clean energy, Yunnan

黄玫, 石岳, 孙文娟, 赵霞, 常锦峰, 方精云. 云南省生态系统碳汇及其对碳中和的贡献. 植物生态学报, 2024, 48(10): 1243-1255. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2023.0139

HUANG Mei, SHI Yue, SUN Wen-Juan, ZHAO Xia, CHANG Jin-Feng, FANG Jing-Yun. Terrestrial carbon sink in Yunnan Province and its contribution to carbon neutrality. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2024, 48(10): 1243-1255. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2023.0139

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链接本文: https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/10.17521/cjpe.2023.0139

https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/Y2024/V48/I10/1243

图/表 7

表1 碳排放计算的主要参数

Table 1 Key parameters for carbon emission calculation

参数 Parameter	数值 Value	来源 Source
排放系数 Emissions coefficient
煤炭 Coal	0.094 6 kg CO₂·MJ^-1	Eggelston (2006)
石油 Petroleum	0.073 3 kg CO₂·MJ^-1	Eggelston (2006)
天然气 Natural gas	0.0561 kg CO₂·MJ^-1	Eggelston (2006)
水泥 Cement	0.538 kg CO₂·kg^-1 clinker	国家发改委 NDRC (2011)
氧化系数 Oxidation coefficient
煤炭 Coal	0.94	国家发改委 NDRC (2011)
石油 Petroleum¹⁾	0.98	国家发改委 NDRC (2011)
天然气 Gas	0.99	国家发改委 NDRC (2011)
水泥熟料比例 Cement clinker proportion	59%-63%	《中国水泥年鉴(2015)》 China Cement Almanac (2015)

表2 1980s-2010s云南各生态系统及土地覆盖类型面积(106 hm2)

Table 2 Area (106 hm2) of various ecosystems and land cover types in Yunnan during the 1980s-2010s

类型 Type	年代 Time period
类型 Type	1980s	1990s	2000s	2010s
森林 Forest	10.73	11.45	14.15	16.12
其他林地 Other forested land
果树林 Orchard	0.09	0.23	0.49	0.84
其他经济林 Other commercial forests	0.50	0.59	1.02	1.45
竹林 Bamboo forest	0.14	0.12	0.09	0.11
灌丛 Shrubland	6.87	5.44	5.04	4.77
草地 Grassland	8.37	8.08	4.93	1.97
农田 Farmland	6.31	6.38	6.19	6.07
湿地 Wetland	0.31	0.29	0.30	0.29
建设用地 Built-up area	0.68	0.77	0.91	1.61
其他类型 Other categories	4.27	4.92	5.15	5.04
总计 Total	38.27	38.27	38.27	38.27

表3 1980s-2010s云南不同生态系统类型碳汇(Tg C·a-1)

Table 3 Carbon sink (Tg C·a-1) of various ecosystem types in Yunnan during the 1980s-2010s

类型 Type	年份 Time period
类型 Type	1980s	1990s	2000s	2010s	1980s-2010s
森林 Forest	8.40	14.52	13.75	29.29	16.49
灌丛 Shrubland	0.41	0.30	0.60	-0.26	0.26
草地 Grassland	0.25	0.11	0.04	-0.19	0.05
湿地 Wetland	1.16	1.11	1.15	1.12	1.14
农田 Farmland	2.19	1.59	0.82	1.26	1.47
合计 Total	12.41	17.63	16.35	31.22	19.41

图1 基于地面观测资料估算的云南省生态系统碳汇和多模型预测的净生态系统生产力(NEP)总量。

Fig. 1 Total ecosystem carbon sink estimated based on field measurements and multi-model predictions of total net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in Yunnan Province.

图2 1980-2020年云南省碳排放及其构成。

Fig. 2 Carbon emissions and its composition in Yunnan Province from 1980 to 2020.

图3 1981-2020年期间云南省生态碳汇贡献指数变化。CI, 区域碳汇贡献指数; CIe, 生态系统碳汇贡献指数。

Fig. 3 Changes in ecosystem carbon sink contribution index in Yunnan Province during the period of 1981-2020. CI, regional carbon sink contribution index; CIe, ecosystem carbon sink contribution index.

图4 云南省CO2排放量与GDP的关系、清洁能源减排及能源强度。A, 不同时段GDP与CO2排放量的关系, 此处GDP以1980年不变价格计量, 由定基GDP指数计算得到。B, 1980-2020年期间清洁能源CO2减排量、CO2排放量以及CO2排放量与清洁能源CO2减排量之和的变化。C, 1980-2020年期间能源强度的变化。

Fig. 4 Relationship between CO2 emission and GDP, clean energy emission reduction and energy intensity in Yunnan Province. A, Relationship between GDP and CO2 emissions in different time periods. GDP here is the GDP at the constant price of 1980. B, Variation of reduction in CO2 emissions through clean energy production, CO2 emissions, and the sum of CO2 emissions and reduction in CO2 emissions through clean energy production during 1980-2020. C, Changes of energy intensity during 1980-2020.

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云南省生态系统碳汇及其对碳中和的贡献

Terrestrial carbon sink in Yunnan Province and its contribution to carbon neutrality

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