石灰岩特有植物海南凤仙花潜在适宜生境分布模拟
收稿日期: 2018-03-28
修回日期: 2018-09-11
网络出版日期: 2018-09-26
基金资助
海南省创新研究团队项目(2018CXTD334);国家自然科学基金(31560229)
Modeling the potential suitable habitat of Impatiens hainanensis, a limestone-endemic plant
Received date: 2018-03-28
Revised date: 2018-09-11
Online published: 2018-09-26
Supported by
Supported by the Hainan Provincial Innovative Research Team Program.(2018CXTD334);the National Natural Science Foundation of China.(31560229)
模拟物种的潜在分布区是保护管理受威胁物种的重要手段。该研究对海南岛石灰岩特有种、濒危植物——海南凤仙花(Impatiens hainanensis)的潜在适宜生境分布进行预测, 旨在为海南凤仙花的有效保护及重引入工作提供基础的科学依据。研究基于海南凤仙花8个种群分布点和12个环境变量, 利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和GIS技术构建海南凤仙花适宜生境预测模型, 模拟了当前时期海南凤仙花在海南岛的潜在分布区; 同时基于5个实际分布数据和5个不存在数据, 采用受试者工作特征曲线下的面积(AUC)、Kappa系数、真实技巧统计值(TSS)及总体精度4个评估指标综合评价模型的预测精度。研究结果表明: 4个评估指标值均在0.9以上, 说明MaxEnt模型能够很好地预测海南凤仙花潜在适宜生境的分布。限制其分布的主要环境因子为坡度、最干季降水量、降水量季节性变异系数。当前, 海南凤仙花的最适宜生境占海南岛总面积的1.8%, 主要分布于白沙西部与南部、昌江中部和南部、东方东部、乐东东北部。海南凤仙花潜在适宜生境分布狭窄, 且破碎化严重, 迫切需要保护。因此建议: 收集海南凤仙花各种群种子, 建立种质资源库; 将东方天安乡、江边乡及乐东东北部(佳西保护区)等可能存在最适宜生境的地区, 作为今后野外深入调查的首选区域和重引入的重点区域。
宁瑶, 雷金睿, 宋希强, 韩淑梅, 钟云芳 . 石灰岩特有植物海南凤仙花潜在适宜生境分布模拟[J]. 植物生态学报, 2018 , 42(9) : 946 -954 . DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2018.0066
Aims Modelling potential distribution ranges of threatened species is of great significance for their conservation. In this paper, the distribution of potential suitable habitat of Impatiens hainanensis,a limestone-endemic and endangered plant in Hainan Island, was studied to provide scientific basis for their effective in situ conservation and re-introduction of I. hainanensis.
Methods Based on eight occurrence sites and 12 environmental variables, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm and GIS technology were used to create a model linking the distribution ranges of I. hainanensis with environments. With data on five actual distribution sites and five non-occurrence sites, four model evaluation metrics (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), kappa coefficient, true skill statistic (TSS), overall accuracy) were used to evaluate the predictive performance and accuracy of this model.
Important findings The results indicated that the indicative value of all four evaluation metrics were above 0.9, indicating that the MaxEnt model can effectively predict the potential suitable habitats of I. hainanensis.Slope, precipitation of the driest quarter and coefficients of precipitation variation were the three main environmental factors influencing the distribution of I. hainanensis. At present, the most suitable habitat includes western and southern parts of Baisha County, the central and southern parts of Changjiang County, the eastern part of the Dongfang City and northeastern Ledong County, accounting for 1.8% of land area on Hainan Island. Since the potential suitable habitat of I. hainanensis is rare and severely fragmented, the protection of this species is urgent. We suggest to collect the seeds of various geographic populations of I. hainanensis to establish a germplasm resource bank. The most suitable habitat of the species, including Tian’an Village and Jiangbian Village in Dongfang City, northeast of Ledong County (Jiaxi Reserve), should be selected as the priority places for future extensive field surveys and re-introduction.
Key words： local adaption; habitat suitability; Maximum Entropy; GIS; Hainan; endemic plant
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