石灰岩特有植物海南凤仙花潜在适宜生境分布模拟

doi:10.17521/cjpe.2018.0066

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

模拟物种的潜在分布区是保护管理受威胁物种的重要手段。该研究对海南岛石灰岩特有种、濒危植物——海南凤仙花(Impatiens hainanensis)的潜在适宜生境分布进行预测, 旨在为海南凤仙花的有效保护及重引入工作提供基础的科学依据。研究基于海南凤仙花8个种群分布点和12个环境变量, 利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和GIS技术构建海南凤仙花适宜生境预测模型, 模拟了当前时期海南凤仙花在海南岛的潜在分布区; 同时基于5个实际分布数据和5个不存在数据, 采用受试者工作特征曲线下的面积(AUC)、Kappa系数、真实技巧统计值(TSS)及总体精度4个评估指标综合评价模型的预测精度。研究结果表明: 4个评估指标值均在0.9以上, 说明MaxEnt模型能够很好地预测海南凤仙花潜在适宜生境的分布。限制其分布的主要环境因子为坡度、最干季降水量、降水量季节性变异系数。当前, 海南凤仙花的最适宜生境占海南岛总面积的1.8%, 主要分布于白沙西部与南部、昌江中部和南部、东方东部、乐东东北部。海南凤仙花潜在适宜生境分布狭窄, 且破碎化严重, 迫切需要保护。因此建议: 收集海南凤仙花各种群种子, 建立种质资源库; 将东方天安乡、江边乡及乐东东北部(佳西保护区)等可能存在最适宜生境的地区, 作为今后野外深入调查的首选区域和重引入的重点区域。

关键词: 局部适应, 生境适宜性, 最大熵模型, 地理信息系统, 海南, 特有植物

Abstract:

Aims Modelling potential distribution ranges of threatened species is of great significance for their conservation. In this paper, the distribution of potential suitable habitat of Impatiens hainanensis,a limestone-endemic and endangered plant in Hainan Island, was studied to provide scientific basis for their effective in situ conservation and re-introduction of I. hainanensis.

Methods Based on eight occurrence sites and 12 environmental variables, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm and GIS technology were used to create a model linking the distribution ranges of I. hainanensis with environments. With data on five actual distribution sites and five non-occurrence sites, four model evaluation metrics (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), kappa coefficient, true skill statistic (TSS), overall accuracy) were used to evaluate the predictive performance and accuracy of this model.

Important findings The results indicated that the indicative value of all four evaluation metrics were above 0.9, indicating that the MaxEnt model can effectively predict the potential suitable habitats of I. hainanensis.Slope, precipitation of the driest quarter and coefficients of precipitation variation were the three main environmental factors influencing the distribution of I. hainanensis. At present, the most suitable habitat includes western and southern parts of Baisha County, the central and southern parts of Changjiang County, the eastern part of the Dongfang City and northeastern Ledong County, accounting for 1.8% of land area on Hainan Island. Since the potential suitable habitat of I. hainanensis is rare and severely fragmented, the protection of this species is urgent. We suggest to collect the seeds of various geographic populations of I. hainanensis to establish a germplasm resource bank. The most suitable habitat of the species, including Tian’an Village and Jiangbian Village in Dongfang City, northeast of Ledong County (Jiaxi Reserve), should be selected as the priority places for future extensive field surveys and re-introduction.

Key words: local adaption, habitat suitability, Maximum Entropy, GIS, Hainan, endemic plant

宁瑶, 雷金睿, 宋希强, 韩淑梅, 钟云芳. 石灰岩特有植物海南凤仙花潜在适宜生境分布模拟. 植物生态学报, 2018, 42(9): 946-954. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2018.0066

NING Yao, LEI Jin-Rui, SONG Xi-Qiang, HAN Shu-Mei, ZHONG Yun-Fang. Modeling the potential suitable habitat of Impatiens hainanensis, a limestone-endemic plant. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2018, 42(9): 946-954. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2018.0066

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链接本文: https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/10.17521/cjpe.2018.0066

https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/Y2018/V42/I9/946

图/表 6

参考文献 33

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地点 Sites	种群编码 Populations code	经度 Longitude	纬度 Latitude	海拔 Altitude (m)
俄贤岭 Exian Moutain	Pop1	109.094° E	19.013° N	945
	Pop 2	109.098° E	19.010° N	890
	Pop 3	109.097° E	19.007° N	1 000
	Pop 4	109.109° E	19.104° N	490
	Pop 5	109.112° E	19.013° N	1 050
王下乡 Wangxia Village	Pop6	109.117° E	19.024° N	450
	Pop7	109.109° E	19.019° N	590
	Pop8	109.128° E	19.018° N	350
	Pop9	109.129° E	19.019° N	460
皇帝洞 Huangdidong	Pop10	109.137° E	18.960° N	250
猕猴岭保护区 Mihouling Reserve	Pop11	109.065° E	18.929° N	480
	Pop12	109.065° E	18.928° N	400
	Pop13	109.063° E	18.927° N	340

地点 Sites	种群编码 Populations code	经度 Longitude	纬度 Latitude	海拔 Altitude (m)
俄贤岭 Exian Moutain	Pop1	109.094° E	19.013° N	945
	Pop 2	109.098° E	19.010° N	890
	Pop 3	109.097° E	19.007° N	1 000
	Pop 4	109.109° E	19.104° N	490
	Pop 5	109.112° E	19.013° N	1 050
王下乡 Wangxia Village	Pop6	109.117° E	19.024° N	450
	Pop7	109.109° E	19.019° N	590
	Pop8	109.128° E	19.018° N	350
	Pop9	109.129° E	19.019° N	460
皇帝洞 Huangdidong	Pop10	109.137° E	18.960° N	250
猕猴岭保护区 Mihouling Reserve	Pop11	109.065° E	18.929° N	480
	Pop12	109.065° E	18.928° N	400
	Pop13	109.063° E	18.927° N	340

变量及数据 Variable and data	代码 Code	来源 Source	原始坐标系 Original coordinate system
昼夜温差月平均值 Mean diurnal range (Mean of monthly (max temperature - min temperature))	bio2	世界气候数据库 Worldclim	WGS84
等温性 Isothermality	bio3
气温季节性变化标准偏差 Standard deviation of air temperature seasonality	bio4
气温年较差 Air temperature annual range	bio7
最冷季平均气温 Mean air temperature of coldest quarter	bio11
年降水量 Annual precipitation	bio12
降水量季节性变异系数 Coefficient of variation of precipitation seasonality	bio15
最湿季降水量 Precipitation of wettest quarter	bio16
最干季降水量 Precipitation of driest quarter	bio17
海拔 Elevation	ele	地理空间数据云 Geospatial data cloud (Computer network information center of Chinese academy of sciences)	WGS84
坡度 Slope	slo
坡向 Aspect	asp
海南凤仙花分布点 Distribution points of Impatiens hainanensis	-	实地调查 Field survey	WGS84
海南岛土地覆被类型图 Land cover type map of Hainan Island	-	海南省林业厅 Forestry department of Hainan	WGS84

变量及数据 Variable and data	代码 Code	来源 Source	原始坐标系 Original coordinate system
昼夜温差月平均值 Mean diurnal range (Mean of monthly (max temperature - min temperature))	bio2	世界气候数据库 Worldclim	WGS84
等温性 Isothermality	bio3
气温季节性变化标准偏差 Standard deviation of air temperature seasonality	bio4
气温年较差 Air temperature annual range	bio7
最冷季平均气温 Mean air temperature of coldest quarter	bio11
年降水量 Annual precipitation	bio12
降水量季节性变异系数 Coefficient of variation of precipitation seasonality	bio15
最湿季降水量 Precipitation of wettest quarter	bio16
最干季降水量 Precipitation of driest quarter	bio17
海拔 Elevation	ele	地理空间数据云 Geospatial data cloud (Computer network information center of Chinese academy of sciences)	WGS84
坡度 Slope	slo
坡向 Aspect	asp
海南凤仙花分布点 Distribution points of Impatiens hainanensis	-	实地调查 Field survey	WGS84
海南岛土地覆被类型图 Land cover type map of Hainan Island	-	海南省林业厅 Forestry department of Hainan	WGS84

评估指标 Evaluate index	失败 Fail	很差 Very poor	一般 Common	较准确 Good	优秀 Excellent	本实验结果值(平均值±标准偏差) Result value of this experiment (mean ± SD)
AUC	0.50-0.60	0.60-0.70	0.70-0.80	0.80-0.90	0.90-1.00	0.98 ± 0.02
Kappa	0-0.40	0.40-0.55	0.55-0.70	0.70-0.85	0.85-1.00	0.96 ± 0.08
TSS	0-0.40	0.40-0.55	0.55-0.70	0.70-0.85	0.85-1.00	0.96 ± 0.08
Overall accuracy	0-0.40	0-0.55	0.55-0.70	0.70-0.85	0.85-1.00	0.98 ± 0.04