Chin J Plant Ecol ›› 2017, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (7): 770-778.DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2016.0380

• Research Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Predicting the global areas for potential distribution of Gastrodia elata based on ecological niche models

Qin ZHANG1, Dong-Fang ZHANG1,2, Ming-Li WU3, Jie GUO1,4, Cheng-Zhong SUN5, Cai-Xiang XIE1,*()   

  1. 1Institute of Medicinal Plant Development, Peking Union Medical College, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100193, China

    2School of Geographical Surveying and Urban and Rural Planning, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou, Jiangsu 221116, China

    3Pharmacy Faculty, Hubei University of Chinese Medicine, Wuhan 430065, China

    4School of Chemistry, Chemical Engineering and Life Sciences, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
    and
    5Chinese Academy of Surveying & Mapping, Beijing 100039, China
  • Received:2016-12-12 Accepted:2017-05-31 Online:2017-07-10 Published:2017-08-21
  • Contact: Cai-Xiang XIE
  • About author:KANG Jing-yao(1991-), E-mail: kangjingyao_nj@163.com

Abstract:

Aims Previous studies on the globally suitable areas for growing the medicinal plant Gastrodia elata is lacking. This study aims to predict the global areas for potential distribution of this plant based on multiple ecological niche models. Methods A total of 220 global distribution points of G. elata and 19 ecological variables were compiled and eight environmental variables were selected for the model training. Three ecological niche models, including BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, and MAXENT, were used to predict the global areas for potential distribution of G. elata. The resulting data of different models were analyzed and compared with two statistical criteria: the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Kappa value. Important findings The predictions of the three models are basically identical, showing that the global areas for potential distribution of G. elata are predominantly in the range of 20° N to 50° N in Asia, mainly in China, South Korea and Japan. A small proportion of the suitable areas occur in India, Nepal and the European countries near Mediterranean. The most suitable areas distribute in provinces close to the Sichuan Basin and the central East China, the mid-eastern parts of South Korea such as Chungcheongbuk-do, Gyeongsangbuk-do and Gyeongsangnam- do, and the Kyushu region and the Shikoku region on Japan’s main island. Therefore, these three countries can be used as the main production areas of G. elata for its commercial development. The AUC average values of the three models are all above 0.9 and the Kappa average values all above 0.65, justifying their applications for predicting the potential areas of G. elata. Among them, the MAXENT model appears to perform the best, followed by DOMAIN and BIOCLIM.

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Key words: Gastrodia elata, ecological niche models, potential suitable distribution area, model evaluation