Abstract: Aims In recent years, persistent water level decline and frequent extreme drought events in Poyang Lake have led to severe degradation of wetland ecosystems, exacerbated biodiversity loss risks, and posed threats to ecological security in the middle-lower Yangtze River basin. Previous studies predominantly employed spatial statistical methods to preliminarily analyze direct impacts of multiple factors on wetland patterns, while neglecting the cascading (direct and indirect) driving mechanisms of climate-topography-soil-human activity interactions and ecological vulnerability assessments. Methods Focusing on the Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone, this study systematically investigates the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics, driving mechanisms, and socio-ecological vulnerability of wetland ecosystems using 30m-resolution wetland datasets (2001-2022) and multi-source environmental/socio-economic data, integrated with geographical detector and partial least squares structural equation modeling. Important findings Results showed that: (1) wetland area experienced drastic reduction (2001-2008) followed by gradual recovery, with permanent water bodies showing most significant shrinkage (decreased from 60% to 40%), and wetland area kept stable after 2016; (2) soil properties (particularly carbon content and bulk density) and meteorological factors dominate wetland distribution, exhibiting significant synergistic enhancement effects among driving factors; (3) ecological vulnerability demonstrates a "low-north, high-south" spatial pattern, showing initial increase then decrease during 2001-2022, while socio-ecological vulnerability displays "high-central, low-peripheral" differentiation characteristics. (4) This study further proposes response strategies for the wetland vulnerability pattern, suggesting improvements in regional ecological resilience through zoning control, graded ecological compensation, and social adaptation, to achieve a coordinated balance between ecological protection and livelihood development. By constructing a socio-ecological system vulnerability assessment framework, this study elucidates multidimensional driving mechanisms of wetland evolution, providing scientific basis for regional wetland management, ecological restoration, and biodiversity conservation.

Key words: Poyang Lake Wetlands, Spatiotemporal Evolution, Driving Forces Analysis, Ecological Vulnerability