Chin J Plant Ecol ›› 2020, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (2): 0-0.doi: 10.17521/cjpe.2018.0258

   

Changes of potential geographical distribution for Tsoongiodendron odorum since Last Glacial Maximum

  

  • Received:2018-10-17 Revised:2019-03-13 Online:2020-03-26 Published:2020-02-20
  • Contact: Wan HU E-mail:hwan603@163.com

Abstract: Aims Tsoongiodendron odorum Chun is an ancient relic belonging to the family Magnoliaceae, but it is labelled endangered plant with extremely small populations and facing a serious threat of wild survival now. Using Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) to project historical changes of species distribution pattern histories following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), this study aims to explore the impact of climate change on the distribution of T. odorum, and to evaluate the relationship between species distribution and determinant variables, so as to provide a framework for the conservation in the context of global warming. Methods Based on 96 modern geographical distribution records and 8 bioclimatic variables, we simulated the potential distribution of T. odorum during the LGM, Mid-Holocene, present and future (Period of 2061-2080 in the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario) with MaxEnt model. The changes in distribution pattern were analyzed by SDM toolbox, while the importance of bioclimatic variables was evaluated by percent contribution, permutation importance and Jackknife test. Important findings (1) The highly suitable region of T. odorum was at Nanling region, and this area might be the glacial refugia that T. odorum survived in situ during the LGM because only slightly southward retreat was detected in LGM scenario. (2) In the two warming climate scenarios (Mid-Holocene and future), the area of the suitable region was reduced, while the decrease of future distribution is greater, which suggest that the warming climate might have a negative impact on the growth of T. odorum. (3) Overall the stability of geographical distribution range of T. odorum in each period indicates a certain extent climate adaptation. Human activity or self-breeding problem was likely the significant cause leading to endangered condition. Guangdong and Guangxi should be regarded as priority conservation areas by our results.

Key words: Tsoongiodendron odorum, ecological niche modelling, geographical distribution, Last Glacial Maximum, climate change

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