Chin J Plant Ecol ›› 2020, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (1): 44-55.DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2018.0258

• Research Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Changes in potential geographical distribution of Tsoongiodendron odorum since the Last Glacial Maximum

HU Wan1,*(),ZHANG Zhi-Yong1,CHEN Lu-Dan1,PENG Yan-Song1,WANG Xu2   

  1. 1Lushan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Provincial Key Laboratory of Plant ex Situ Conservation and Utilization, Jiujiang, Jiangxi 332900, China
    2Forestry Industry Development Administration of Jiangxi Province, Nanchang 330006, China
  • Received:2018-10-17 Revised:2019-01-17 Online:2020-01-20 Published:2020-03-26
  • Contact: HU Wan
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(41961009);Scientific Infrastructure and Capacity Building of Jiangxi Province(2017ZDD01002);Science and Technology Service Network Initiative(KFJ-3W-No1)


Aims Tsoongiodendron odorum is an ancient relic species belonging to the family Magnoliaceae, but it is labelled endangered plant with extremely small populations and facing serious threats to its wild survival now. Using Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) to hindcast historical changes in its distribution during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), this study aims to explore the impact of climate change on the distribution of T. odorum, and to evaluate the relationship between species distribution and environmental variables. The results of this study could contribute to the conservation of T. odorum in the context of global warming.
Methods Based on 96 modern geographical distribution records and 8 bioclimatic variables, we simulated the potential distribution of T. odorum during the LGM, Mid-Holocene, present and future (period of 2061-2080 in the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario) with MaxEnt model. The changes in species distribution through time were analyzed by SDM toolbox, while the importance of bioclimatic variables was evaluated by percent contribution, permutation importance and Jackknife test.
Important findings (1) The highly suitable region for T. odorum was Nanling region, and this area might be the refuge where T. odorum survived in situ during the LGM because only slightly southward retreat in distribution was detected in this region during the LGM. (2) In the two warming climate scenarios (Mid-Holocene and future), the area of the suitable region was reduced, and the decrease of future distribution is greater than that during the Mid-Holocene, which suggests that warming climate might have a negative impact on the distribution of T. odorum. (3) Overall the stability of distribution range of T. odorum in each period indicates the climate adaptation of this species. Human activity or self-breeding problem was likely the significant cause leading to endangered condition. Guangdong and Guangxi should be regarded as priority conservation areas as shown by our results.

Key words: Tsoongiodendron odorum, ecological niche modelling, geographical distribution, Last Glacial Maximum, climate change