Historical distribution patterns and environmental drivers of relict shrub Amygdalus pedunculata

doi:10.17521/cjpe.2021.0406

Abstract

Abstract:

Aims Amygdalus pedunculata is a relict shrub plant, distributed in arid and semi-arid deserts and mountainous areas of northwest China. In order to understand its distribution and evolution under the historical climate change, we performed an analysis on 60 natural distribution points and 8 environmental factors, using GIS spatial analysis and maximum entropy model MaxEnt 3.4.1. We then analyzed the changes in geographical distributions and their environmental drivers of A. pedunculata during the Last Inter Glacial (LIG), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present period.

Methods Based on the simulated distribution data of A. pedunculata in different periods and chloroplast gene data of the natural populations, we simulated the possible diffusion path of A. pedunculata since the LIG period by the least cost path method. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to analyze the historical environmental variables in the suitable areas of A. pedunculata in different periods by “ggbiplot” package of R language. By doing so, we then determined the key climatic factors affecting the historical distribution pattern of A. pedunculata.

Important findings The historical distribution of A. pedunculata has experienced significant contraction since the LIG period but significant expansion after the LGM. From the LIG to the LGM period, the suitable distribution areas of A. pedunculata significantly contracted in the eastern Hobq Desert, the northern Mau Us Desert, the northern Shaanxi Province, the northern Yinshan Mountain, the southern Ulan Qab Plateau, and the Onqin Daga Desert. In contrast, since the LGM, A. pedunculata has undergone significant expansion in the eastern Hobq Desert, the central Mau Us Desert, east Yinshan Mountain, and the western Onqin Daga Desert. There were highly suitable distribution areas of A. pedunculata in the middle and western parts of Nei Mongol Plateau in three periods, including the northern edge of Mau Us Desert, the eastern edge of Hobq Desert and Daqing Mountain. It is possible that these areas may be the ice age shelter of A. pedunculata. The Yin Shan Mountain in the north and the edge of Mau Us Desert was the important diffusion corridor. From the LIG to the LGM, the temperature, including the min temperature of the coldest month, the annual mean diurnal range and the max temperature of the warmest month, all fluctuantly decreased over time. The distribution of A. pedunculata during the ice age was limited by the cold and dry climate, and the suitable area contracted significantly. The precipitation in wettest month and the precipitation seasonality have increased significantly since the LGM period. Amygdalus pedunculata has expanded significantly in the eastern Hobq Desert, the central part of Mau Us Desert, Yinshan Mountain and the western Part of Onqin Daga Desert. Precipitation was also a key limiting factor affecting the current suitable distribution.

Key words: Amygdalus pedunculata, historical distribution pattern, diffusion path, the Last Inter Glacial, the Last Glacial Maximum

YAN Han, MA Song-Mei, WEI Bo, ZHANG Hong-Xiang, ZHANG Dan. Historical distribution patterns and environmental drivers of relict shrub Amygdalus pedunculata[J]. Chin J Plant Ecol, 2022, 46(7): 766-774.

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URL: https://www.plant-ecology.com/EN/10.17521/cjpe.2021.0406

https://www.plant-ecology.com/EN/Y2022/V46/I7/766

Figures/Tables 8

Fig. 1 Simulation accuracy of Amygdalus pedunculata distribution model in different periods (mean ± SE). AUC, area under the curve of receiver operator characteristic curve; LGM, the Last Glacial Maximum; LIG, the Last Inter Glacial.

Fig. 2 Historical distribution changes (A, B) and centroid migration paths (C) of Amygdalus pedunculata since the Last Inter Glacial (LIG). Dots with different colors indicate the centroid of suitable areas in different periods, and arrows indicate the migration direction of centroid in different periods. LGM, the Last Glacial Maximum.

Table 1 Suitable area of Amygdalus pedunculata in northwest China in different periods

适生等级 Suitable grade	模拟时期 Simulation periods
适生等级 Suitable grade	末次间冰期 LIG	末次盛冰期 LGM	当前 Present
高度适生区面积(×10 000 km²) Highly suitable distribution areas	3.55	1.19	6.42
适生区面积(×10 000 km²) Suitable distribution areas	6.33	2.31	14.85

Fig. 3 Dispersal routes of Amygdalus pedunculata in different periods. LGM, the Last Glacial Maximum; LIG, the Last Inter Glacial.

Fig. 4 Climatic fluctuation of the known distribution points of Amygdalus pedunculata in different periods. LGM, the Last Glacial Maximum; LIG, the Last Inter Glacial.

Fig. 5 Pricipal component analysis (PCA) of eight key climatic variables affecting the distribution of Amygdalus pedunculata in different periods. Bio2, annual mean diurnal range; Bio3, isothermality; Bio5, max temperature of warmest month; Bio6, min temperature of coldest month; Bio7, annual temperature range; Bio13, precipitation of wettest month; Bio14, precipitation of driest month; Bio15, precipitation seasonality. LGM, the Last Glacial Maximum; LIG, the Last Inter Glacial.

Table 2 Characteristic values of principal components that affecting the climate fluctuation at distribution points of Amygdalus pedunculata in different periods

气候因子 Climatic factor	LIG-LGM					LGM-Present
气候因子 Climatic factor	PC1	PC2	PC3	PC4	PC5	PC1	PC2	PC3	PC4	PC5
Bio2	0.093	0.460	0.730	0.428	0.052	0.521	0.138	0.086	0.122	0.090
Bio3	0.404	0.362	-0.066	0.061	0.122	0.108	0.452	0.093	-0.638	-0.452
Bio5	-0.436	0.171	0.136	-0.120	-0.075	0.448	0.161	0.048	0.131	0.081
Bio6	-0.187	0.695	-0.181	-0.479	0.086	-0.456	-0.042	-0.130	-0.111	-0.126
Bio7	-0.410	-0.237	0.280	0.160	-0.146	0.456	0.095	0.095	0.121	0.108
Bio13	-0.284	0.194	-0.537	0.709	0.278	-0.293	0.605	0.066	-0.089	0.786
Bio14	0.416	0.128	-0.200	0.196	-0.725	-0.255	0.151	0.846	0.381	-0.226
Bio15	-0.425	0.188	-0.069	0.050	-0.588	-0.129	0.533	-0.486	0.617	-0.293

Table 3 Contribution rate and suitable range of each climate factor to distribution of Amygdalus pedunculata under present climate

气候因子 Climate factor	贡献率百分比 Contribution percentage (%)	适宜区间 Suitable range
最湿月降水量 Precipitation of wettest month (Bio13) (mm)	38.5	3-199
平均气温年较差 Annual temperature range (Bio7) (℃)	16.9	27-63
降水量季节性 Precipitation seasonality (Bio15)	14.8	23-138
最冷月最低气温 Min temperature of coldest month (Bio6) (℃)	11.8	-38- -1
最干月降水量 Precipitation of driest month (Bio14) (mm)	6.8	0-20
等温性 Isothermality (Bio3)	5.5	13-42
最热月最高气温 Max temperature of warmest month (Bio5) (℃)	3.4	-6-39
平均气温日较差 Annual mean diurnal range (Bio2) (℃)	2.2	4-20

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