CARBON CYCLE MODELING OF A BROAD-LEAVED KOREAN PINE FOREST IN CHANGBAI MOUNTAIN OF CHINA USING THE MODEL-DATA FUSION APPROACH

doi:10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2009.06.004

Abstract

Abstract:

Aims Our objective was to use multiple terrestrial carbon observations to improve existing terrestrial ecosystem models.
Methods We conducted a Bayesian probabilistic inversion to estimate the key parameter (i.e., carbon residence time) of a terrestrial ecosystem model (TECO) by using biometric and eddy covariance flux data measured at a temperate broad-leaved Korean pine forest in Changbai Mountain (CBS) of China from 2003 to 2005. We then estimated carbon stocks, carbon fluxes and uncertainties with posterior estimates of parameters. Biometric measurements consisted of foliage biomass, fine root biomass, woody biomass, litterfall, soil organic matter (SOM) and soil respiration.
Important findings Residence times of carbon for most pools can be constrained by eddy covariance flux and biometric measurements, except for the passive soil organic matter pool. Estimated residence times of C ranged from 2 to 6 months for litter and microbial biomass pools, 1 to 2 years for foliage and fine root biomass, 8 to 16 years for slow SOM pool and 77-109 and 409-1 879 years for woody biomass and passive SOM pools, respectively. Model results showed that the prediction uncertainties of carbon stocks and accumulated carbon fluxes increased with time. When air temperature increased 10% and 20%, annual gross primary productivity (GPP) increased 6.5% and 9.9%, but annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP) changed with soil temperature. If soil temperature is constant, annual NEP increased 11.4%-21.9% and 17.6%-33.1%, while if soil temperature increased 10% and 20%, annual NEP decreased to a level that was lower than that under ambient temperature. Given the same climate condition and seasonal variation for leaf area index during 2003-2005, annual NEP and soil respiration in 2020 would be 163±12 and 721±14 g C·m^-2·a^-1. Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is an effective way to estimate model parameters and to evaluate model prediction uncertainties. However, more studies are needed on a) estimation of residence time of C for passive soil organic matter, b) uncertainty analysis of input data and model structure and c) model-data fusion methods so as to improve the prediction accuracy of terrestrial ecosystem models.

Key words: Key words Bayesian estimation, uncertainty analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, model-data fusion, carbon residence time

ZHANG Li, YU Gui-Rui, LUO Yiqi, HE Hong-Lin, ZHANG Lei-Ming. CARBON CYCLE MODELING OF A BROAD-LEAVED KOREAN PINE FOREST IN CHANGBAI MOUNTAIN OF CHINA USING THE MODEL-DATA FUSION APPROACH[J]. Chin J Plant Ecol, 2009, 33(6): 1044-1055.

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Figures/Tables 9

References 34

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参数 Parameter	定义 Definition	值域 Range (a)
参数 Parameter	定义 Definition	最小值 Lower limit	最大值 Upper limit
τ₁	碳在“叶生物量”库的滞留时间 Residence time of C in pool “foliage biomass” (X₁)	1.27	47.35
τ₂	碳在“细根生物量”库的滞留时间 Residence time of C in pool “fine root biomass” (X₂)	0.93	15.57
τ₃	碳这“木质生物量”库的滞留时间 Residence time of C in pool “woody biomass” (X₃)	10.00	110.47
τ₄	碳在“代谢凋落物”库的滞留时间 Residence time of C in pool “metabolic litter” (X₄)	0.10	0.50
τ₅	碳这“结构凋落物”库的滞留时间 Residence time of C in pool “structural litter” (X₅)	0.10	5.00
τ₆	碳在“微生物”到库的滞留时间 Residence time of C in pool “microbes” (X₆)	0.04	1.00
τ₇	碳在“慢性土壤有机质”库的滞留时间 Residence time of C in pool “slow SOM” (X₇)	6.43	120.16
τ₈	碳在“惰性土壤有机质”库的滞留时间 Residence time of C in pool “passive SOM” (X₈)	300.08	1 999.80

参数 Parameter	定义 Definition	值域 Range (a)
参数 Parameter	定义 Definition	最小值 Lower limit	最大值 Upper limit
τ₁	碳在“叶生物量”库的滞留时间 Residence time of C in pool “foliage biomass” (X₁)	1.27	47.35
τ₂	碳在“细根生物量”库的滞留时间 Residence time of C in pool “fine root biomass” (X₂)	0.93	15.57
τ₃	碳这“木质生物量”库的滞留时间 Residence time of C in pool “woody biomass” (X₃)	10.00	110.47
τ₄	碳在“代谢凋落物”库的滞留时间 Residence time of C in pool “metabolic litter” (X₄)	0.10	0.50
τ₅	碳这“结构凋落物”库的滞留时间 Residence time of C in pool “structural litter” (X₅)	0.10	5.00
τ₆	碳在“微生物”到库的滞留时间 Residence time of C in pool “microbes” (X₆)	0.04	1.00
τ₇	碳在“慢性土壤有机质”库的滞留时间 Residence time of C in pool “slow SOM” (X₇)	6.43	120.16
τ₈	碳在“惰性土壤有机质”库的滞留时间 Residence time of C in pool “passive SOM” (X₈)	300.08	1 999.80

参数 Parameter	众数 Mode	平均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation	90%置信区间 90% confidence interval
τ₁	1.78	1.79	0.15	(1.55, 2.05)
τ₂	1.23	1.25	0.10	(1.09, 1.42)
τ₃	105.63	95.86	9.81	(77.31, 108.96)
τ₄	0.16	0.21	0.07	(0.11, 0.36)
τ₅	0.27	0.30	0.11	(0.16, 0.49)
τ₆	0.26	0.30	0.09	(0.17, 0.47)
τ₇	10.73	11.48	2.50	(8.17, 16.17)
τ₈	-	1 133.30	462.15	(408.53, 1 878.80)

参数 Parameter	众数 Mode	平均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation	90%置信区间 90% confidence interval
τ₁	1.78	1.79	0.15	(1.55, 2.05)
τ₂	1.23	1.25	0.10	(1.09, 1.42)
τ₃	105.63	95.86	9.81	(77.31, 108.96)
τ₄	0.16	0.21	0.07	(0.11, 0.36)
τ₅	0.27	0.30	0.11	(0.16, 0.49)
τ₆	0.26	0.30	0.09	(0.17, 0.47)
τ₇	10.73	11.48	2.50	(8.17, 16.17)
τ₈	-	1 133.30	462.15	(408.53, 1 878.80)

模拟量 Variable	平均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation	众数 Mode	90%置信区间 90% confidence interval
NEP年总量Annual NEP (g C·m^-2·a^-1)	163	12	162	(142, 183)
土壤呼吸年总量 Annual soil respiration (g C·m^-2·a^-1)	721	14	718	(699, 747)
植物碳Vegetation carbon (g C·m^-2)	21 292	215.69	21 564	(20 878, 21 563)
土壤有机碳Soil organic carbon (g C·m^-2)	7 240	305	7 244	(6 756, 7 749)