Chin J Plant Ecol ›› 2014, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (3): 262-269.DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1258.2014.00023
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MA Song-Mei1,*(), NIE Ying-Bin2, GENG Qing-Long3, WANG Rong-Xue4
Received:
2013-09-10
Accepted:
2013-11-29
Online:
2014-09-10
Published:
2014-02-27
Contact:
MA Song-Mei
MA Song-Mei, NIE Ying-Bin, GENG Qing-Long, WANG Rong-Xue. Impact of climate change on suitable distribution range and spatial pattern in Amygdalus mongolica [J]. Chin J Plant Ecol, 2014, 38(3): 262-269.
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URL: https://www.plant-ecology.com/EN/10.3724/SP.J.1258.2014.00023
地区 Region | 居群编号及地点 Number and location of populations | 纬度 Latitude | 经度 Longitude | 海拔 Altitude (m) | 生境 Habitat |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
内蒙古 Nei Mongol | 1 阿拉善左旗特莫乌拉嘎查 Temowula Gazha of Alxa Zuoqi | 37°49′ N | 104°56′ E | 1 465 | 沙丘 Sand dune |
2 阿拉善左旗贺兰山 Helan Mountain of Alxa Zuoqi | 38°51′ N | 105°50′ E | 2 102 | 砾石戈壁 Gravel gobi | |
3 阿拉善左旗苏力图嘎查 Su Litu Gazha of Alxa Zuoqi | 39°55′ N | 105°13′ E | 1 421 | 沙丘或砾石沙丘 Sand dunes or gravel dune | |
4 阿拉善左旗图克木嘎查 Tukemu Gazha of Alxa Zuoqi | 40°24′ N | 105°43′ E | 1 388 | 沙丘或砾石沙丘 Sand dunes or gravel dune | |
5 乌素图苏海图 Suhaitu, Wusu Tu | 39°32′ N | 106°35′ E | 1 280 | 小砾石山坡 Small gravel slope | |
6 乌素图大麦力沟 Damaili Furrow, Wusu Tu | 39°23′ N | 106°38′ E | 1 382 | 大砾石山坡 Large gravel slope | |
7 乌拉特前旗乌拉山 Ul Mountain, Urad Qianqi | 40°44′ N | 109°20′ E | 1 610 | 大砾石山坡 Large gravel slope | |
8 乌拉特中旗乌加禾镇 Wujiahe Town, Urad Zhongqi | 41°18′ N | 107°35′ E | 1 107 | 大砾石山坡 Large gravel slope | |
9 乌拉特后旗大坝口 Dam Mouth, Urad Houqi | 41°04′ N | 107°01′ E | 1 067 | 大砾石山坡 Large gravel slope | |
10 包头市大青山 Daqing Mountain, Baotou | 40°43′ N | 109°54′ E | 1 195 | 小砾石山坡 Small gravel slope | |
甘肃 Gansu | 11 祁连山国家级自然保护区 Qilianshan National Nature Reserve | 38°09′ N | 101°50′ E | 2 498 | 大砾石山坡 Large gravel slope |
12 张掖市龙首山 Longshou Mountain, Zhangye | 38°47′ N | 101°11′ E | 2 203 | 大砾石山坡 Large gravel slope |
Table 1 Basic information for the 12 Amygdalus mongolica populations investigated in the field
地区 Region | 居群编号及地点 Number and location of populations | 纬度 Latitude | 经度 Longitude | 海拔 Altitude (m) | 生境 Habitat |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
内蒙古 Nei Mongol | 1 阿拉善左旗特莫乌拉嘎查 Temowula Gazha of Alxa Zuoqi | 37°49′ N | 104°56′ E | 1 465 | 沙丘 Sand dune |
2 阿拉善左旗贺兰山 Helan Mountain of Alxa Zuoqi | 38°51′ N | 105°50′ E | 2 102 | 砾石戈壁 Gravel gobi | |
3 阿拉善左旗苏力图嘎查 Su Litu Gazha of Alxa Zuoqi | 39°55′ N | 105°13′ E | 1 421 | 沙丘或砾石沙丘 Sand dunes or gravel dune | |
4 阿拉善左旗图克木嘎查 Tukemu Gazha of Alxa Zuoqi | 40°24′ N | 105°43′ E | 1 388 | 沙丘或砾石沙丘 Sand dunes or gravel dune | |
5 乌素图苏海图 Suhaitu, Wusu Tu | 39°32′ N | 106°35′ E | 1 280 | 小砾石山坡 Small gravel slope | |
6 乌素图大麦力沟 Damaili Furrow, Wusu Tu | 39°23′ N | 106°38′ E | 1 382 | 大砾石山坡 Large gravel slope | |
7 乌拉特前旗乌拉山 Ul Mountain, Urad Qianqi | 40°44′ N | 109°20′ E | 1 610 | 大砾石山坡 Large gravel slope | |
8 乌拉特中旗乌加禾镇 Wujiahe Town, Urad Zhongqi | 41°18′ N | 107°35′ E | 1 107 | 大砾石山坡 Large gravel slope | |
9 乌拉特后旗大坝口 Dam Mouth, Urad Houqi | 41°04′ N | 107°01′ E | 1 067 | 大砾石山坡 Large gravel slope | |
10 包头市大青山 Daqing Mountain, Baotou | 40°43′ N | 109°54′ E | 1 195 | 小砾石山坡 Small gravel slope | |
甘肃 Gansu | 11 祁连山国家级自然保护区 Qilianshan National Nature Reserve | 38°09′ N | 101°50′ E | 2 498 | 大砾石山坡 Large gravel slope |
12 张掖市龙首山 Longshou Mountain, Zhangye | 38°47′ N | 101°11′ E | 2 203 | 大砾石山坡 Large gravel slope |
Fig. 1 Probability of average occurrence and standard deviation of Amygdalus mongolica during the Last Glacial Maximum and under historical (1961-1990) and future climatic conditions. The white dots in C show the field locations for investigation of A. mongolica populations. Population numbers refer to Table 1. A, B, the Last Glacial Maximum based on Community Climate System Model. C, D, historical (1961-1990) climate. E, F, in 2020. G, H, in 2050. I, J, in 2080.
气候情景 Climate scenario | 最小存在阈值 Lowest predicted threshold value | 预测成功的点个数 No. of points with successful predictions | p值 p-value |
---|---|---|---|
最大冰期(CCSM模型) The Last Glacial Maximum (CCSM model) | 4 | 17 | 0.011 2 |
最大冰期(MIROC模型) The Last Glacial Maximum (MIROC model) | 4 | 17 | 0.394 1 |
1961-1990年平均气候 Average climate during 1961-1990 | 8 | 18 | 0.011 2 |
2020年A2A情景 A2A scenario in 2020 | 9 | 18 | 0.020 8 |
2050年A2A情景 A2A scenario in 2050 | 3 | 18 | 0.077 2 |
2080年A2A情景 A2A scenario in 2080 | 3 | 18 | 0.040 9 |
Table 2 Predictions with Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) by using the leave one out
气候情景 Climate scenario | 最小存在阈值 Lowest predicted threshold value | 预测成功的点个数 No. of points with successful predictions | p值 p-value |
---|---|---|---|
最大冰期(CCSM模型) The Last Glacial Maximum (CCSM model) | 4 | 17 | 0.011 2 |
最大冰期(MIROC模型) The Last Glacial Maximum (MIROC model) | 4 | 17 | 0.394 1 |
1961-1990年平均气候 Average climate during 1961-1990 | 8 | 18 | 0.011 2 |
2020年A2A情景 A2A scenario in 2020 | 9 | 18 | 0.020 8 |
2050年A2A情景 A2A scenario in 2050 | 3 | 18 | 0.077 2 |
2080年A2A情景 A2A scenario in 2080 | 3 | 18 | 0.040 9 |
气候情景 Climate scenario | 百分比 Percentage (%) |
---|---|
最大冰期(CCSM模型)与历史气候对比 The Last Glacial Maximum (CCSM model) vs. historical climate | 51.93 |
最大冰期(MIROC模型)与历史气候对比 The Last Glacial Maximum (MIROC model) vs. historical climate | 29.41 |
2020 (A2A)与历史气候对比 2020 (A2A) vs. historical climate | 176.00 |
2050 (A2A)与历史气候对比 2050 (A2A) vs. historical climate | 137.00 |
2080 (A2A)与历史气候对比 2080 (A2A) vs. historical climate | 142.00 |
Table 3 Percentage of area maintained as compared to the historical (1961-1990) potential distribution of Amygdalus mongolica according to modelled distribution ranges based on the Last Glacial Maximum and future climatic conditions
气候情景 Climate scenario | 百分比 Percentage (%) |
---|---|
最大冰期(CCSM模型)与历史气候对比 The Last Glacial Maximum (CCSM model) vs. historical climate | 51.93 |
最大冰期(MIROC模型)与历史气候对比 The Last Glacial Maximum (MIROC model) vs. historical climate | 29.41 |
2020 (A2A)与历史气候对比 2020 (A2A) vs. historical climate | 176.00 |
2050 (A2A)与历史气候对比 2050 (A2A) vs. historical climate | 137.00 |
2080 (A2A)与历史气候对比 2080 (A2A) vs. historical climate | 142.00 |
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