Chin J Plant Ecol ›› 2019, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (9): 774-782.DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2018.0249

• Research Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Response of abundance distribution of five species of Quercus to climate change in northern China

ZHANG Xue-Jiao1,GAO Xian-Ming2,JI Cheng-Jun1,KANG Mu-Yi3,4,WANG Ren-Qing5,YUE Ming6,ZHANG Feng7,TANG Zhi-Yao1,*()   

  1. 1Institute of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
    2State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093, China
    3State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    4College of Resources Science & Technology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    5School of Life Sciences, Shandong University, Jinan 250100, China
    6Key Laboratory of Resource Biology and Biotechnology in Western China, Ministry of Education, Northwest University, Xi’an 710069, China
    7Institute of Loess Plateau, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China
  • Received:2018-10-11 Accepted:2019-01-30 Online:2019-09-20 Published:2020-01-03
  • Contact: TANG Zhi-Yao ORCID:0000-0003-0154-6403
  • Supported by:
    Supported by the National Basic Work of Science and Technology of China(2011FY110300);Supported by the National Basic Work of Science and Technology of China(2015FY210200)

Abstract:

Aims To develop a statistically appropriate species distribution model for the abundance of five species from Quercus in the northern China, and to predict the change of abundance under climate change.
Methods We surveyed abundance data of five Quercus species from 1 045 plots in the northern China, and then fit the abundance with climatic variables using random forest model (RF). We then predict the abundance of these five Quercus species in 2050 and 2070 under Representation Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5.
Important findings The change magnitudes of abundance for all 5 species under RCP 8.5 were larger than under RCP 2.6. Except for Quercus variabilis, abundances of other four species declined under climate change to 2050 and 2070 in more than half of the current distribution areas. Moreover, the northeastern part of Nei Mongol and the northern part of Heilongjiang will be the hotspots of decrease of abundance. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring and species protection in the areas mentioned above with the increasing threaten of climate change.

Key words: generalized linear model, generalized additive model, random forest model, species distribution model