Chin J Plant Ecol ›› 2014, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (6): 585-598.DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1258.2014.00054
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XU Ge-Xi1,LUO Shui-Xing2,*(),GUO Quan-Shui1,PEI Shun-Xiang3,SHI Zuo-Min1,ZHU Li4,ZHU Ni-Ni1
Received:
2013-12-03
Accepted:
2014-02-05
Online:
2014-12-03
Published:
2014-06-10
Contact:
LUO Shui-Xing
XU Ge-Xi,LUO Shui-Xing,GUO Quan-Shui,PEI Shun-Xiang,SHI Zuo-Min,ZHU Li,ZHU Ni-Ni. Responses of leaf unfolding and flowering to climate change in 12 tropical evergreen broadleaf tree species in Jianfengling, Hainan Island[J]. Chin J Plant Ecol, 2014, 38(6): 585-598.
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URL: https://www.plant-ecology.com/EN/10.3724/SP.J.1258.2014.00054
种名 Species name | 物种代码 Species code | 科名 Family name | 物种来源 Species origin |
---|---|---|---|
海南紫荆木 Madhuca hainanensis | MAHA | 山榄科 Sapotaceae | 本地种 Native species |
蝴蝶树 Heritiera parvifolia | HEPA | 梧桐科 Sterculiaceae | 本地种 Native species |
破布叶 Microcos paniculata | MIPA | 椴树科 Tiliaceae | 本地种 Native species |
海南大风子 Hydnocarpus hainanensis | HYHA | 大风子科 Flacourtiaceae | 本地种 Native species |
海南苹婆 Sterculia hainanensis | STHA | 梧桐科 Sterculiaceae | 本地种 Native species |
细基丸 Polyalthia cerasoides | POCE | 番荔枝科 Annonaceae | 本地种 Native species |
囊瓣木 Saccopetalum prolificum | SAPR | 番荔枝科 Annonaceae | 本地种 Native species |
海杧果 Cerbera manghas | CEMA | 夹竹桃科 Apocynaceae | 本地种 Native species |
酸豆 Tamarindus indica | TAIN | 苏木科 Caesalpiniaceae | 引入种 Introduced species |
大叶桃花心木 Swietenia macrophylla | SWMA | 楝科 Meliaceae | 引入种 Introduced species |
非洲楝 Khaya senegalensis | KHSE | 楝科 Meliaceae | 引入种 Introduced species |
蝴蝶果 Cleidiocarpon cavaleriei | CLCA | 大戟科 Euphorbiaceae | 引入种 Introduced species |
Table 1 Taxonomic information of 12 tropical evergreen broadleaf tree species in Jianfengling, Hainan Island
种名 Species name | 物种代码 Species code | 科名 Family name | 物种来源 Species origin |
---|---|---|---|
海南紫荆木 Madhuca hainanensis | MAHA | 山榄科 Sapotaceae | 本地种 Native species |
蝴蝶树 Heritiera parvifolia | HEPA | 梧桐科 Sterculiaceae | 本地种 Native species |
破布叶 Microcos paniculata | MIPA | 椴树科 Tiliaceae | 本地种 Native species |
海南大风子 Hydnocarpus hainanensis | HYHA | 大风子科 Flacourtiaceae | 本地种 Native species |
海南苹婆 Sterculia hainanensis | STHA | 梧桐科 Sterculiaceae | 本地种 Native species |
细基丸 Polyalthia cerasoides | POCE | 番荔枝科 Annonaceae | 本地种 Native species |
囊瓣木 Saccopetalum prolificum | SAPR | 番荔枝科 Annonaceae | 本地种 Native species |
海杧果 Cerbera manghas | CEMA | 夹竹桃科 Apocynaceae | 本地种 Native species |
酸豆 Tamarindus indica | TAIN | 苏木科 Caesalpiniaceae | 引入种 Introduced species |
大叶桃花心木 Swietenia macrophylla | SWMA | 楝科 Meliaceae | 引入种 Introduced species |
非洲楝 Khaya senegalensis | KHSE | 楝科 Meliaceae | 引入种 Introduced species |
蝴蝶果 Cleidiocarpon cavaleriei | CLCA | 大戟科 Euphorbiaceae | 引入种 Introduced species |
Fig. 1 Basic information for the onset of leaf unfolding and the onset of first flowering in 12 tropical evergreen broadleaf tree species in Jianfengling, Hainan Island (mean ± SE). Species codes are the same as in Table 1.
Fig. 2 The influences of a 0.1 °C rise in mean air temperature and a 10 mm increase in precipitation in each of the preceding month on the onset of leaf unfolding in 12 tree species. Species codes are the same as in Table 1.
Fig. 3 The influences of a 0.1 °C rise in mean air temperature and a 10 mm increase in precipitation in each of the preceding month on the onset of first flowering in 12 tree species. Species codes are the same as in Table 1.
树种 Tree species | 物候期 Phenophase | 物候预测模型 Model of phenological prediction | df | R2 | p |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
海南紫荆木 MAHA | 展叶始期 OLU | $y=-2.38228{{T}_{0}}-0.63656{{T}_{4}}-0.00135{{P}_{5}}+917.67182$ | 3, 1 | >0.99 | 0.014 |
开花始期奋OFL | $y=-\text{0}\text{.00879}{{T}_{3}}-0.01756{{P}_{0}}+0.00081{{P}_{2}}-0.00011{{P}_{4}}+184.08273$ | 4, 1 | >0.99 | 0.002 | |
蝴蝶树 HEPA | 展叶始期 OLU | $y=-1.61897{{T}_{0}}+0.05895{{T}_{4}}+0.00801{{P}_{1}}+0.00048{{P}_{2}}-0.00314{{P}_{4}}+648.65012$ | 5, 1 | >0.99 | 0.017 |
开花始期 OFL | $y=-0.30489{{T}_{1}}+0.32204{{T}_{2}}-0.02228{{P}_{0}}-0.00108{{P}_{1}}+0.00109{{P}_{2}}-25.57393$ | 5, 3 | >0.99 | <0.001 | |
破布叶 MIPA | 展叶始期 OLU | $y=-0.29822{{T}_{2}}+0.34796{{T}_{4}}-0.00219{{P}_{2}}+200.64790$ | 3, 4 | 0.951 | 0.006 |
开花始期 OFL | $y=0.07539{{T}_{5}}-0.07119{{P}_{0}}-0.00750{{P}_{1}}+0.00221{{P}_{3}}+0.00174{{P}_{4}}+294.71511$ | 5, 2 | >0.99 | 0.002 | |
海南大风子 HYHA | 展叶始期 OLU | $y=-0.29424{{T}_{0}}+0.07539{{T}_{2}}-0.09409{{P}_{0}}+0.00139{{P}_{4}}+337.34806$ | 4, 1 | >0.99 | 0.013 |
开花始期 OFL | $y=-0.07740{{T}_{3}}+224.64306$ | 1, 3 | 0.978 | 0.002 | |
海南苹婆 STHA | 展叶始期 OLU | $y=0.74999{{T}_{1}}+0.58373{{T}_{3}}-0.15748{{T}_{4}}-0.01991{{T}_{5}}-0.01532{{P}_{1}}+0.00059{{P}_{3}}+0.00034{{P}_{5}}-3.92288$ | 7, 1 | >0.99 | 0.004 |
开花始期 OFL | $y=0.26684{{T}_{0}}-0.03156{{T}_{2}}-0.14139{{T}_{4}}+0.05450{{T}_{5}}-0.00179{{P}_{1}}-30.75027$ | 5, 1 | >0.99 | 0.002 | |
细基丸 POCE | 展叶始期 OLU | $y=0.14537{{T}_{3}}-0.13648{{T}_{4}}+0.02903{{P}_{0}}-0.00071{{P}_{4}}+15.75967$ | 4, 3 | 0.976 | 0.007 |
开花始期 OFL | $y=-0.56060{{T}_{1}}-0.03974{{T}_{3}}+0.02169{{T}_{5}}+0.00164{{P}_{2}}+0.00347{{P}_{3}}-4.71946$ | 5, 1 | >0.99 | 0.012 | |
囊瓣木 SAPR | 展叶始期 OLU | $y=-11.03330{{T}_{0}}+0.81146{{T}_{1}}-0.60157{{T}_{3}}+0.02282{{P}_{1}}\text{+3741}\text{.54475}$ | 4, 1 | >0.99 | 0.075 |
开花始期 OFL | $y=-11.93835{{T}_{0}}-0.81942{{T}_{1}}-0.14417{{P}_{0}}-0.00540{{P}_{5}}+3724.18480$ | 4, 1 | 0.943 | 0.221 | |
海杧果 CEMA | 展叶始期 OLU | $y=\text{0}\text{.92868}{{T}_{1}}-0.15218{{T}_{3}}-0.00026{{T}_{4}}+0.00271{{P}_{5}}+116.50025$ | 4, 1 | >0.99 | 0.023 |
开花始期 OFL | $y=-0.02314{{T}_{2}}-0.13206{{T}_{4}}+0.03085{{T}_{5}}+0.00185{{P}_{3}}+0.00083{{P}_{5}}+67.07923$ | 5, 1 | >0.99 | 0.022 | |
酸豆 TAIN | 展叶始期 OLU | $y=-0.33273{{T}_{1}}-0.16320{{T}_{2}}+0.03014{{T}_{4}}+0.00214{{P}_{0}}+0.00022{{P}_{2}}+0.00172{{P}_{3}}+0.00005{{P}_{4}}+113.40775$ | 4, 2 | >0.99 | 0.003 |
开花始期 OFL | $y=2.06823{{T}_{0}}-0.25660{{T}_{4}}+0.08053{{P}_{0}}-0.00481{{P}_{3}}+0.00759{{P}_{5}}-550.00567$ | 5, 1 | >0.99 | 0.020 | |
大叶桃花心木 SWMA | 展叶始期 OLU | $y=-2.89018{{T}_{0}}-0.06850{{T}_{2}}+0.01177{{T}_{3}}-0.11516{{T}_{4}}+0.00383{{T}_{5}}-0.00133{{P}_{3}}-0.00131{{P}_{5}}+900.06504$ | 7, 1 | >0.99 | 0.003 |
开花始期 OFL | $y=4.22220{{T}_{0}}-1.20205{{T}_{1}}-0.31324{{T}_{3}}-0.01633{{T}_{4}}-0.05578{{T}_{5}}-0.00106{{P}_{4}}-1286.86831$ | 6, 1 | >0.99 | 0.011 | |
非洲楝 KHSE | 展叶始期 OLU | $y=-2.59746{{T}_{0}}-0.11448{{T}_{2}}-0.00390{{P}_{3}}-0.00091{{P}_{5}}+808.78470$ | 4, 1 | >0.99 | 0.003 |
开花始期 OFL | $y=-0.08557{{T}_{2}}+0.00276{{P}_{4}}+90.17318$ | 2, 3 | 0.972 | 0.006 | |
蝴蝶果 CLCA | 展叶始期 OLU | $y=-1.76916{{T}_{0}}-0.00544{{T}_{2}}+0.01952{{P}_{1}}+0.00028{{P}_{5}}+655.81729$ | 4, 1 | >0.99 | 0.005 |
开花始期 OFL | $y=0.08547{{T}_{2}}-0.04329{{T}_{5}}+0.02425{{P}_{1}}+211.96571$ | 3, 1 | >0.99 | 0.025 |
Table 2 Integrate air temperature and precipitation regression models for predicting the onset of leaf unfolding and the onset of first flowering in 12 evergreen broadleaf tree species
树种 Tree species | 物候期 Phenophase | 物候预测模型 Model of phenological prediction | df | R2 | p |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
海南紫荆木 MAHA | 展叶始期 OLU | $y=-2.38228{{T}_{0}}-0.63656{{T}_{4}}-0.00135{{P}_{5}}+917.67182$ | 3, 1 | >0.99 | 0.014 |
开花始期奋OFL | $y=-\text{0}\text{.00879}{{T}_{3}}-0.01756{{P}_{0}}+0.00081{{P}_{2}}-0.00011{{P}_{4}}+184.08273$ | 4, 1 | >0.99 | 0.002 | |
蝴蝶树 HEPA | 展叶始期 OLU | $y=-1.61897{{T}_{0}}+0.05895{{T}_{4}}+0.00801{{P}_{1}}+0.00048{{P}_{2}}-0.00314{{P}_{4}}+648.65012$ | 5, 1 | >0.99 | 0.017 |
开花始期 OFL | $y=-0.30489{{T}_{1}}+0.32204{{T}_{2}}-0.02228{{P}_{0}}-0.00108{{P}_{1}}+0.00109{{P}_{2}}-25.57393$ | 5, 3 | >0.99 | <0.001 | |
破布叶 MIPA | 展叶始期 OLU | $y=-0.29822{{T}_{2}}+0.34796{{T}_{4}}-0.00219{{P}_{2}}+200.64790$ | 3, 4 | 0.951 | 0.006 |
开花始期 OFL | $y=0.07539{{T}_{5}}-0.07119{{P}_{0}}-0.00750{{P}_{1}}+0.00221{{P}_{3}}+0.00174{{P}_{4}}+294.71511$ | 5, 2 | >0.99 | 0.002 | |
海南大风子 HYHA | 展叶始期 OLU | $y=-0.29424{{T}_{0}}+0.07539{{T}_{2}}-0.09409{{P}_{0}}+0.00139{{P}_{4}}+337.34806$ | 4, 1 | >0.99 | 0.013 |
开花始期 OFL | $y=-0.07740{{T}_{3}}+224.64306$ | 1, 3 | 0.978 | 0.002 | |
海南苹婆 STHA | 展叶始期 OLU | $y=0.74999{{T}_{1}}+0.58373{{T}_{3}}-0.15748{{T}_{4}}-0.01991{{T}_{5}}-0.01532{{P}_{1}}+0.00059{{P}_{3}}+0.00034{{P}_{5}}-3.92288$ | 7, 1 | >0.99 | 0.004 |
开花始期 OFL | $y=0.26684{{T}_{0}}-0.03156{{T}_{2}}-0.14139{{T}_{4}}+0.05450{{T}_{5}}-0.00179{{P}_{1}}-30.75027$ | 5, 1 | >0.99 | 0.002 | |
细基丸 POCE | 展叶始期 OLU | $y=0.14537{{T}_{3}}-0.13648{{T}_{4}}+0.02903{{P}_{0}}-0.00071{{P}_{4}}+15.75967$ | 4, 3 | 0.976 | 0.007 |
开花始期 OFL | $y=-0.56060{{T}_{1}}-0.03974{{T}_{3}}+0.02169{{T}_{5}}+0.00164{{P}_{2}}+0.00347{{P}_{3}}-4.71946$ | 5, 1 | >0.99 | 0.012 | |
囊瓣木 SAPR | 展叶始期 OLU | $y=-11.03330{{T}_{0}}+0.81146{{T}_{1}}-0.60157{{T}_{3}}+0.02282{{P}_{1}}\text{+3741}\text{.54475}$ | 4, 1 | >0.99 | 0.075 |
开花始期 OFL | $y=-11.93835{{T}_{0}}-0.81942{{T}_{1}}-0.14417{{P}_{0}}-0.00540{{P}_{5}}+3724.18480$ | 4, 1 | 0.943 | 0.221 | |
海杧果 CEMA | 展叶始期 OLU | $y=\text{0}\text{.92868}{{T}_{1}}-0.15218{{T}_{3}}-0.00026{{T}_{4}}+0.00271{{P}_{5}}+116.50025$ | 4, 1 | >0.99 | 0.023 |
开花始期 OFL | $y=-0.02314{{T}_{2}}-0.13206{{T}_{4}}+0.03085{{T}_{5}}+0.00185{{P}_{3}}+0.00083{{P}_{5}}+67.07923$ | 5, 1 | >0.99 | 0.022 | |
酸豆 TAIN | 展叶始期 OLU | $y=-0.33273{{T}_{1}}-0.16320{{T}_{2}}+0.03014{{T}_{4}}+0.00214{{P}_{0}}+0.00022{{P}_{2}}+0.00172{{P}_{3}}+0.00005{{P}_{4}}+113.40775$ | 4, 2 | >0.99 | 0.003 |
开花始期 OFL | $y=2.06823{{T}_{0}}-0.25660{{T}_{4}}+0.08053{{P}_{0}}-0.00481{{P}_{3}}+0.00759{{P}_{5}}-550.00567$ | 5, 1 | >0.99 | 0.020 | |
大叶桃花心木 SWMA | 展叶始期 OLU | $y=-2.89018{{T}_{0}}-0.06850{{T}_{2}}+0.01177{{T}_{3}}-0.11516{{T}_{4}}+0.00383{{T}_{5}}-0.00133{{P}_{3}}-0.00131{{P}_{5}}+900.06504$ | 7, 1 | >0.99 | 0.003 |
开花始期 OFL | $y=4.22220{{T}_{0}}-1.20205{{T}_{1}}-0.31324{{T}_{3}}-0.01633{{T}_{4}}-0.05578{{T}_{5}}-0.00106{{P}_{4}}-1286.86831$ | 6, 1 | >0.99 | 0.011 | |
非洲楝 KHSE | 展叶始期 OLU | $y=-2.59746{{T}_{0}}-0.11448{{T}_{2}}-0.00390{{P}_{3}}-0.00091{{P}_{5}}+808.78470$ | 4, 1 | >0.99 | 0.003 |
开花始期 OFL | $y=-0.08557{{T}_{2}}+0.00276{{P}_{4}}+90.17318$ | 2, 3 | 0.972 | 0.006 | |
蝴蝶果 CLCA | 展叶始期 OLU | $y=-1.76916{{T}_{0}}-0.00544{{T}_{2}}+0.01952{{P}_{1}}+0.00028{{P}_{5}}+655.81729$ | 4, 1 | >0.99 | 0.005 |
开花始期 OFL | $y=0.08547{{T}_{2}}-0.04329{{T}_{5}}+0.02425{{P}_{1}}+211.96571$ | 3, 1 | >0.99 | 0.025 |
Fig. 4 Simulated values based on the integrate air temperature and precipitation regression models for phenological predictions versus measured values of the onset of leaf unfolding and the onset of first flowering in 12 tree species. Species codes are the same as in Table 1.
Fig. 5 Distribution of the differences between simulated values and measured values of the onset of leaf unfolding and the onset of first flowering in 12 tropical evergreen broadleaf tree species. Species codes are the same as in Table 1.
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