Terrestrial carbon sink in Yunnan Province and its contribution to carbon neutrality

doi:10.17521/cjpe.2023.0139

Abstract

Abstract:

Aims Exploring the characteristics of carbon source-sink has significant implications for guiding local governments in achieving its “dual carbon” goal. This study comprehensively assessed the dynamics of carbon emissions, terrestrial carbon sinks, the contribution of terrestrial carbon sinks in offsetting carbon emissions, and the impacts of clean energy production on the carbon emissions in Yunnan Province from 1981 to 2020, and further investigated the terrestrial carbon balance in the next four decades projected by coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) earth system models under two climate scenarios.

Methods Two independent methods were used to estimate historical ecosystem carbon sinks in Yunnan Province. One was based on field observation data combined with empirical models, and the other was based on four terrestrial ecosystem models. The projections of future carbon balance in Yunnan Province were derived from five earth system models of CMIP5 under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Carbon emissions were estimated using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, and China’s Provincial Guidelines for Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory.

Important findings The results show that the terrestrial carbon sink in Yunnan Province varied between 12.41 and 31.22 Tg C·a^-1 over the past 40 years, with an average sink of 19.41 Tg C·a^-1. The highest ratio (247%) of ecosystem carbon sinks to carbon emissions (sink emission ratio) in Yunnan Province occurred during the period from 1981 to 1985, while the ratio has declined since then and reached its lowest value during the period of 2006-2010 followed by a slight increase after that. The ratio was 54% during the period of 2016-2020. The rise of the sink emission ratio in the past decade can be mainly attributed to the promotion of clean energy production, the increase in forest area, and the decrease in energy intensity. Large-scale deployment of clean energy in Yunnan Province has in general satisfied the energy needs of economic development, reducing the reliance of its economy on CO₂ emissions. Model projections indicated that under future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in Yunnan Province during the 2020s and the 2030s may be lower than that during 2016-2020, while carbon sink may increase in the 2040s to 2050s. This study suggests that in the future, Yunnan Province should further develop clean energy programs, increase energy efficiency, and enhance ecosystem carbon sink to support both the achievement of carbon neutrality and regional high-quality development.

Key words: carbon neutrality, ecosystem carbon sink, carbon emission, clean energy, Yunnan

HUANG Mei, SHI Yue, SUN Wen-Juan, ZHAO Xia, CHANG Jin-Feng, FANG Jing-Yun. Terrestrial carbon sink in Yunnan Province and its contribution to carbon neutrality[J]. Chin J Plant Ecol, 2024, 48(10): 1243-1255.

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Figures/Tables 7

References 49

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参数 Parameter	数值 Value	来源 Source
排放系数 Emissions coefficient
煤炭 Coal	0.094 6 kg CO₂·MJ^-1	Eggelston (2006)
石油 Petroleum	0.073 3 kg CO₂·MJ^-1	Eggelston (2006)
天然气 Natural gas	0.0561 kg CO₂·MJ^-1	Eggelston (2006)
水泥 Cement	0.538 kg CO₂·kg^-1 clinker	国家发改委 NDRC (2011)
氧化系数 Oxidation coefficient
煤炭 Coal	0.94	国家发改委 NDRC (2011)
石油 Petroleum¹⁾	0.98	国家发改委 NDRC (2011)
天然气 Gas	0.99	国家发改委 NDRC (2011)
水泥熟料比例 Cement clinker proportion	59%-63%	《中国水泥年鉴(2015)》 China Cement Almanac (2015)

参数 Parameter	数值 Value	来源 Source
排放系数 Emissions coefficient
煤炭 Coal	0.094 6 kg CO₂·MJ^-1	Eggelston (2006)
石油 Petroleum	0.073 3 kg CO₂·MJ^-1	Eggelston (2006)
天然气 Natural gas	0.0561 kg CO₂·MJ^-1	Eggelston (2006)
水泥 Cement	0.538 kg CO₂·kg^-1 clinker	国家发改委 NDRC (2011)
氧化系数 Oxidation coefficient
煤炭 Coal	0.94	国家发改委 NDRC (2011)
石油 Petroleum¹⁾	0.98	国家发改委 NDRC (2011)
天然气 Gas	0.99	国家发改委 NDRC (2011)
水泥熟料比例 Cement clinker proportion	59%-63%	《中国水泥年鉴(2015)》 China Cement Almanac (2015)

类型 Type	年代 Time period
类型 Type	1980s	1990s	2000s	2010s
森林 Forest	10.73	11.45	14.15	16.12
其他林地 Other forested land
果树林 Orchard	0.09	0.23	0.49	0.84
其他经济林 Other commercial forests	0.50	0.59	1.02	1.45
竹林 Bamboo forest	0.14	0.12	0.09	0.11
灌丛 Shrubland	6.87	5.44	5.04	4.77
草地 Grassland	8.37	8.08	4.93	1.97
农田 Farmland	6.31	6.38	6.19	6.07
湿地 Wetland	0.31	0.29	0.30	0.29
建设用地 Built-up area	0.68	0.77	0.91	1.61
其他类型 Other categories	4.27	4.92	5.15	5.04
总计 Total	38.27	38.27	38.27	38.27

类型 Type	年代 Time period
类型 Type	1980s	1990s	2000s	2010s
森林 Forest	10.73	11.45	14.15	16.12
其他林地 Other forested land
果树林 Orchard	0.09	0.23	0.49	0.84
其他经济林 Other commercial forests	0.50	0.59	1.02	1.45
竹林 Bamboo forest	0.14	0.12	0.09	0.11
灌丛 Shrubland	6.87	5.44	5.04	4.77
草地 Grassland	8.37	8.08	4.93	1.97
农田 Farmland	6.31	6.38	6.19	6.07
湿地 Wetland	0.31	0.29	0.30	0.29
建设用地 Built-up area	0.68	0.77	0.91	1.61
其他类型 Other categories	4.27	4.92	5.15	5.04
总计 Total	38.27	38.27	38.27	38.27

类型 Type	年份 Time period
类型 Type	1980s	1990s	2000s	2010s	1980s-2010s
森林 Forest	8.40	14.52	13.75	29.29	16.49
灌丛 Shrubland	0.41	0.30	0.60	-0.26	0.26
草地 Grassland	0.25	0.11	0.04	-0.19	0.05
湿地 Wetland	1.16	1.11	1.15	1.12	1.14
农田 Farmland	2.19	1.59	0.82	1.26	1.47
合计 Total	12.41	17.63	16.35	31.22	19.41