Predictions of potential geographical distribution of Sinopodophyllum hexandrum under climate change

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1258.2014.00022

Abstract

Abstract:

Aims Specific information on geographic distribution of a species is important for its conservation. This study was conducted to determine the potential geographic distribution of Sinopodophyllum hexandrum, which is an endangered plant used in traditional Tibetan medicine, and to predict how climate change would affect its geographic range.
Methods The potential geographic distribution of S. hexandrum under the current conditions in western China was simulated with MaxEnt software based on species presence data at 136 locations and 21 climatic variables. The future distributions of S. hexandrum were also projected for the periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under the climate change scenarios of A1B, A2 and B1 described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).
Important findings Results showed that mean temperature of the warmest quarter, annual precipitation, temperature seasonality, and isothermally were the four dominant climatic factors influencing the geographic distribution of Sinopodophyllum hexandrum. For the entire region of the seven provinces in western China, 11.71% of the areas were identified as suitable habitats, 15.86% as marginally suitable habitats, and 72.43% as, unsuitable habitats. The suitable habitats are mainly located in Sichuan, Gansu, Qinghai in the eastern edge of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, and in areas with rich secondary vegetation and complex terrain in high altitudes. The model simulations indicated that the marginally suitable habitats would have a relatively small change under the climate change scenarios of SRES-A1B, SRES-A2 and SRES-B; whereas the suitable habitats would initially decrease by 2020s, followed by a trend of moderate increased thereafter. The average elevation of suitable habitats would be increased, and both the distributional range and the center of distribution would shift northward first, and then move west to the higher altitudes in mountainous areas of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.

Key words: climatic change, MaxEnt model, potential geographic distribution, Sinopodophyllum hexandrum

GUO Yan-Long, WEI Hai-Yan, LU Chun-Yan, ZHANG Hai-Long, GU Wei. Predictions of potential geographical distribution of Sinopodophyllum hexandrum under climate change[J]. Chin J Plant Ecol, 2014, 38(3): 249-261.

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URL: https://www.plant-ecology.com/EN/10.3724/SP.J.1258.2014.00022

https://www.plant-ecology.com/EN/Y2014/V38/I3/249

Figures/Tables 10

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数据简称 Code	中文名称 Chinese name	英文名称 English name
Bio1	年平均气温	Annual mean air temperature
Bio2	平均气温日较差 (平均每月最高气温-平均每月最低气温)	Mean diurnal air temperature range (Mean of monthly (maximum air temperature-minimum air temperature))
Bio3	等温性	Isothermality
Bio4	气温季节性变动系数	Air temperature seasonality
Bio5	最热月的最高气温	Max air temperature of the warmest month
Bio6	最冷月的最低气温	Min air temperature of the coldest month
Bio7	气温年较差	Air temperature annual range
Bio8	最湿季平均气温	Mean air temperature of the wettest quarter
Bio9	最干季平均气温	Mean air temperature of the driest quarter
Bio10	最热季平均气温	Mean air temperature of the warmest quarter
Bio11	最冷季平均气温	Mean air temperature of the coldest quarter
Bio12	年降水量	Annual precipitation
Bio13	最湿月降水量	Precipitation of the wettest month
Bio14	最干月降水量	Precipitation of the driest month
Bio15	降水量的季节性变化(变异系数)	Precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation)
Bio16	最干季降水量	Precipitation of the driest quarter
Bio17	最湿季降水量	Precipitation of the wettest quarter
Bio18	最热季降水量	Precipitation of the warmest quarter
Bio19	最冷季降水量	Precipitation of the coldest quarter
ATG	生长期平均气温^*	Average air temperature of growth period^*
PG	生长期降水量^*	Precipitation of growth period^*

数据简称 Code	中文名称 Chinese name	英文名称 English name
Bio1	年平均气温	Annual mean air temperature
Bio2	平均气温日较差 (平均每月最高气温-平均每月最低气温)	Mean diurnal air temperature range (Mean of monthly (maximum air temperature-minimum air temperature))
Bio3	等温性	Isothermality
Bio4	气温季节性变动系数	Air temperature seasonality
Bio5	最热月的最高气温	Max air temperature of the warmest month
Bio6	最冷月的最低气温	Min air temperature of the coldest month
Bio7	气温年较差	Air temperature annual range
Bio8	最湿季平均气温	Mean air temperature of the wettest quarter
Bio9	最干季平均气温	Mean air temperature of the driest quarter
Bio10	最热季平均气温	Mean air temperature of the warmest quarter
Bio11	最冷季平均气温	Mean air temperature of the coldest quarter
Bio12	年降水量	Annual precipitation
Bio13	最湿月降水量	Precipitation of the wettest month
Bio14	最干月降水量	Precipitation of the driest month
Bio15	降水量的季节性变化(变异系数)	Precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation)
Bio16	最干季降水量	Precipitation of the driest quarter
Bio17	最湿季降水量	Precipitation of the wettest quarter
Bio18	最热季降水量	Precipitation of the warmest quarter
Bio19	最冷季降水量	Precipitation of the coldest quarter
ATG	生长期平均气温^*	Average air temperature of growth period^*
PG	生长期降水量^*	Precipitation of growth period^*

地区 Region	面积百分比 Percentage of area (%)			面积 Area (km²)
地区 Region	适宜生境 Suitable habitat	低适宜生境 Marginally suitable habitat	不适宜生境 Unsuitable habitat	适宜生境 Suitable habitat	低适宜生境 Marginally suitable habitat	不适宜生境Unsuitable habitat
甘肃 Gansu	20.28	15.13	64.59	92 152.32	68 750.72	293 496.97
四川 Sichuan	18.39	26.58	55.03	88 529.46	127 956.12	264 914.42
西藏东部 Eastern Xizang	16.91	19.47	63.62	75 533.50	86 968.49	284 177.48
青海 Qinghai	7.22	10.66	82.12	52 150.06	76 997.18	593 152.75
宁夏 Ningxia	13.32	22.09	64.59	8 844.48	14 667.76	42 887.76
云南 Yunnan	1.54	12.22	86.24	5 902.82	46 839.26	330 557.91
陕西 Shaanxi	0.10	7.57	92.33	205.60	15 563.92	189 830.49
总计 Total	11.71	15.86	72.43	323 318.24	437 743.45	1 999 017.78

地区 Region	面积百分比 Percentage of area (%)			面积 Area (km²)
地区 Region	适宜生境 Suitable habitat	低适宜生境 Marginally suitable habitat	不适宜生境 Unsuitable habitat	适宜生境 Suitable habitat	低适宜生境 Marginally suitable habitat	不适宜生境Unsuitable habitat
甘肃 Gansu	20.28	15.13	64.59	92 152.32	68 750.72	293 496.97
四川 Sichuan	18.39	26.58	55.03	88 529.46	127 956.12	264 914.42
西藏东部 Eastern Xizang	16.91	19.47	63.62	75 533.50	86 968.49	284 177.48
青海 Qinghai	7.22	10.66	82.12	52 150.06	76 997.18	593 152.75
宁夏 Ningxia	13.32	22.09	64.59	8 844.48	14 667.76	42 887.76
云南 Yunnan	1.54	12.22	86.24	5 902.82	46 839.26	330 557.91
陕西 Shaanxi	0.10	7.57	92.33	205.60	15 563.92	189 830.49
总计 Total	11.71	15.86	72.43	323 318.24	437 743.45	1 999 017.78

气候变化情景 Climate change scenario	年 Year	年降水量范围 Range of annual precipitation (mm)	年降水量 Annual precipitation (mm)	年平均气温范围 Range of annual mean air temperature (℃)	年平均气温(℃) Annual mean air temperature
当前 Current	1950-2000	16 - 4 107	596.41	-16.2 - 25.1	5.2
A1B气候情景 SRES-A1B	2020-2029	30 - 4 233	591.90	-15.3 - 25.8	6.2
	2050-2059	47 - 4 285	642.52	-14.4 - 26.9	7.2
	2080-2089	46 - 4 337	684.50	-13.3 - 27.8	8.1
A2气候情景 SRES-A2	2020-2029	20 - 4 200	584.86	-15.3 - 26.0	6.2
	2050-2059	46 - 4 239	638.94	-14.4 - 26.6	7.0
	2080-2089	56 - 4 284	666.36	-12.8 - 28.0	8.6
B1气候情景 SRES-B1	2020-2029	41 - 4 213	587.04	-15.2 - 26.0	6.1
	2050-2059	38 - 4 241	614.68	-14.9 - 26.3	6.6
	2080-2089	53 - 4 291	640.00	-14.1 - 26.8	7.2