Abstract:

Aims We aimed to detect the impact of soil factors on predicting the potential distribution of Phyllostachys edulis (bamboo) by comparing the prediction accuracy and the spatio-temporal pattern of potential habitat of P. edulis.
Methods Using IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) climate change scenario datasets and FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) Soil Map of the World, the potential distribution of P. edulis in China was predicted from 1981 to 2099 based on species distribution models, one-class Support Vector Machine (SVM). We used two groups of predictors: one included climate factors only, and the other had both climate factors and soil factors.
Important findings The SVM based on both predictor groups predicted the potential distribution of P. edulis, and the potential habitat expended and migrated northward with time. Factor importance analysis showed that the climate factors correlated with warm conditions played a driving role in the simulation of the potential habitat of P. edulis, while soil factors associated with soil texture and pH mainly impacted the simulation as limiting factors. However, the prediction using both climate and soil predictors performed with higher efficiency, and the intensity of the potential habitat expending and migrating was less than that of the group of climate factors only. The finding suggested that the soil factors significantly constrain the potential habitat of P. edulis, and soil constraint should be considered in predicting species distribution in future.

Key words: climate change, Phyllostachys edulis, potential distribution, soil, species distribution model