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Effects of climate change on net primary productivity in Larix olgensis plantations based on process modeling
Ya-Lin XIE, Hai-Yan WANG, Xiang-Dong LEI
Chin J Plan Ecolo    2017, 41 (8): 826-839.   DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2016.0382
Abstract   (697 HTML23 PDF(pc) (1426KB)(1061)  

Aims Climate change has significant effects on net primary productivity (NPP) in forests, but there is a large uncertainty in the direction and magnitude of the effects. Process-based models are important tools for understanding the responses of forests to climate change. The objective of the study is to simulate changes in NPP of Larix olgensis plantations under future climate scenarios using 3-PG model in order to guide the management of L. olgensis plantations in the context of global climate change.Methods Data were obtained for 30 permanent plots of L. olgensis plantations in Siping, Linjiang, Baishan, etc. of Jilin Province, and a process model, 3-PG model, was applied to simulate changes in NPP over a rotation period of 40 years under different climate scenarios. Parameter sensitivity was also determined. Important findings The locally parameterized 3-PG model well simulates the changes in NPP against the measured NPP data, with values between 272.79-844.80 g·m-2·a-1 and both mean relative error and relative root mean square error within 12%. The NPP in L. olgensis plantations would increase significantly with increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature and precipitation collectively. However, an increase in temperature alone would lead to a decrease in NPP, but increases in precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration would increase NPP; the positive effect of increasing precipitation appears to be weaker than the negative effect of increasing temperature. Sensitivity analysis shows that the model performance is sensitive to the optimum temperature, stand age at which specific leaf area equals to half of the sum of specific leaf area at age 0 (SLA0) and that for mature leaves (SLA1), and days of production loss due to frost.


参数
Parameter

Value
分类
Category
来源
Source
生物量的分配关系和比例 Allometric relationships and partitioning
胸径2 cm树叶与干分配比 Foliage: stem partitioning ratio when DBH = 2 cm 1.00 A 本文拟合 Fitted in this study
胸径20 cm树叶与干分配比 Foliage: stem partitioning ratio when DBH = 20 cm 0.5 A 本文拟合 Fitted in this study
干生物量与胸径关系中常数值 Constant in the stem biomass and DBH relationship 0.007 3 A 本文拟合 Fitted in this study
干生物量与胸径关系中幂值 Power in the stem biomass and DBH relationship 3.409 A 本文拟合 Fitted in this study
净初级生产量分配给根的最大值 Maximum fraction of net primary productivity to roots 0.95 A 本文拟合 Fitted in this study
净初级生产量分配给根最小值 Minimum fraction of net primary productivity to roots 0.5 A 本文拟合 Fitted in this study
气温修正因子 Air temperature modifier
生长最低气温 Minimum air temperature for growth (℃) -25 L Xu et al., 2012
生长最适气温 Optimum air temperature for growth (℃) 17 L Sun et al., 2009
生长最高气温 Maximum air temperature for growth (℃) 27 L Xu et al., 2012
霜冻修正因子 Frost modifier
每次霜冻导致生产力流失天数 Production lost days per frost day (d) 1 C 默认参数 Default parameters
冠层结构和过程 Canopy structure and process
比叶面积 Specific leaf area (SLA)
年龄为0时比叶面积 Specific leaf area at age 0 (m2·kg-1) 12.93 L Song & Sun, 2012
成熟叶比叶面积 Specific leaf area for mature leaves (m2·kg-1) 5 L Song & Sun, 2012
年龄为(SLA0 + SLA1)/2比叶面积 Age at which specific leaf area = (SLA0 + SLA1)/2 8 L Song & Sun, 2012
光截获 Light interception
消光系数 Extinction coefficient 0.5 L Amichev et al., 2011
郁闭度年龄 Age at canopy cover (a) 5 L Gonzalez-Benecke et al., 2014
从林冠降水蒸发的最大比例 Maximum proportion of rainfall evaporated from canopy 0.15 C 默认参数 Default parameters
最大降水截留时叶面积指数 Leaf area index for maximum rainfall interception 5 C 默认参数 Default parameters
光合生产和呼吸 Photosynthesis production and respiration
冠层量子效率 Canopy quantum efficiency (mol·mol-1) 0.035 L Ma et al., 2008
净初级生产力/总初级生产力
Ratio of net primary productivity to gross primary productivity
0.47 L Liu et al., 2015
树枝在干中的比例 Fraction of stem biomass as branch and bark 0.15 L
林分初生时树枝占干生物量的比例 Fraction of branch and bark at age = 0 0.15 L Coops & Waring, 2011
林分成熟时树枝占干生物量的比例 Fraction of branch and bark for mature stands Coops & Waring, 2011
树枝占平均值时的林龄
Age at which fraction = (Branch and bark fraction at age = 0+Branch and
bark fraction for mature stands)/2
1.5 L Coops & Waring, 2011
立地初始化条件 Stand initialization
初始种植年 Years of initial plantation 1973-1983 M 本研究测定 Measurements in this study
初始密度 Initial stocking (trees·hm-2) 3300 M 本研究测定 Measurements in this study
海拔 Altitude (m) 230-751 M 本研究测定 Measurements in this study
纬度 Latitude (°) 41.61-43.88 M 本研究测定 Measurements in this study
肥力等级 Fertility rating 0.7 ± 0.1 M 本研究测定 Measurements in this study
土壤质地类型 Soil texture Clay loam M 本研究测定 Measurements in this study
Table 3 3-PG model parameters and the initial values for Larix olgensis plantations
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