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Effects of climate change on net primary productivity in Larix olgensis plantations based on process modeling
Ya-Lin XIE, Hai-Yan WANG, Xiang-Dong LEI
Chin J Plan Ecolo    2017, 41 (8): 826-839.   DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2016.0382
Abstract   (697 HTML23 PDF(pc) (1426KB)(1061)  

Aims Climate change has significant effects on net primary productivity (NPP) in forests, but there is a large uncertainty in the direction and magnitude of the effects. Process-based models are important tools for understanding the responses of forests to climate change. The objective of the study is to simulate changes in NPP of Larix olgensis plantations under future climate scenarios using 3-PG model in order to guide the management of L. olgensis plantations in the context of global climate change.Methods Data were obtained for 30 permanent plots of L. olgensis plantations in Siping, Linjiang, Baishan, etc. of Jilin Province, and a process model, 3-PG model, was applied to simulate changes in NPP over a rotation period of 40 years under different climate scenarios. Parameter sensitivity was also determined. Important findings The locally parameterized 3-PG model well simulates the changes in NPP against the measured NPP data, with values between 272.79-844.80 g·m-2·a-1 and both mean relative error and relative root mean square error within 12%. The NPP in L. olgensis plantations would increase significantly with increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature and precipitation collectively. However, an increase in temperature alone would lead to a decrease in NPP, but increases in precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration would increase NPP; the positive effect of increasing precipitation appears to be weaker than the negative effect of increasing temperature. Sensitivity analysis shows that the model performance is sensitive to the optimum temperature, stand age at which specific leaf area equals to half of the sum of specific leaf area at age 0 (SLA0) and that for mature leaves (SLA1), and days of production loss due to frost.


样地号
Plot No.
海拔
Elevation (m)
土壤深度
Soil depth (cm)
坡向
Aspect (°)
坡位
Position
坡度
Slope (°)
林龄
Stand age (a)
林分密度
Stand density (stems?hm-2)
四平-1 Siping-1 260 30 6 2 4 31 950
四平-2 Siping-2 319 30 9 6 1 25 1 783
四平-3 Siping-3 280 35 8 2 10 30 1 383
临江-1 Linjiang-1 876 30 9 6 3 13 1 950
临江-2 Linjiang-2 676 40 2 2 8 16 1 000
临江-3 Linjiang-3 880 26 4 3 5 27 983
白山-1 Baishan-1 600 15 2 4 10 8 183
白山-2 Baishan-2 510 25 8 3 5 8 133
白山-3 Baishan-3 680 25 1 2 16 16 533
龙井-1 Longjin-1 660 25 3 2 32 28 633
龙井-2 Longjin-2 630 45 2 2 6 12 633
龙井-3 Longjin-3 630 29 7 3 15 11 333
辽源-1 Liaoyuan-1 300 37 4 5 5 24 633
辽源-2 Liaoyuan-2 380 35 1 2 8 34 1 983
辽源-3 Liaoyuan-3 380 20 3 3 10 25 1 500
和龙-1 Helong-1 510 45 2 2 14 17 1 050
和龙-2 Helong-2 500 32 2 4 11 16 3 516
和龙-3 Helong-3 751 40 8 4 10 11 1 000
舒兰-1 Shulan-1 230 51 8 4 10 17 1 800
舒兰-2 Shulan-2 280 51 8 4 6 25 1 617
舒兰-3 Shulan-3 310 51 6 4 15 17 2 150
通化-1 Tonghua-1 580 42 2 4 20 16 900
通化-2 Tonghua-2 710 50 2 2 17 17 2 267
通化-3 Tonghua-3 512 50 4 3 20 15 900
汪清-1 Wangqing-1 390 40 5 3 3 17 2 250
汪清-2 Wangqing-2 510 51 8 4 5 20 950
汪清-3 Wangqing-3 390 40 5 3 3 18 2 241
长春-1 Changchun-1 338 30 5 1 5 26 1 367
长春-2 Changchun-2 290 32 8 4 20 19 1 567
长春-3 Changchun-3 240 35 9 1 0 26 1 050
Appendix I Basic information of the Larix olgensis plantation stands
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