Chin J Plan Ecolo ›› 2017, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (8): 826-839.DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2016.0382
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Ya-Lin XIE1, Hai-Yan WANG1,*(), Xiang-Dong LEI2
Online:
2017-08-10
Published:
2017-09-29
Contact:
Hai-Yan WANG
About author:
KANG Jing-yao(1991-), E-mail:
Ya-Lin XIE, Hai-Yan WANG, Xiang-Dong LEI. Effects of climate change on net primary productivity in Larix olgensis plantations based on process modeling[J]. Chin J Plan Ecolo, 2017, 41(8): 826-839.
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URL: https://www.plant-ecology.com/EN/10.17521/cjpe.2016.0382
排放情景 Emission scenarios | CO2浓度 CO2 concentration (mg·L-1) | CO2浓度基准值 CO2 concentration reference value (mg·L-1) | 气温增加 Air temperature increment (℃) | 气温增加基准值 Air temperature increment reference value (℃) | 降水量增加 Precipitation increment (%) | 降水量增加基准值 Precipitation increment reference value (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RCP 2.6 | 440-480 | 460 | 0.3-1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3-5.1 | 2.7 |
RCP 6.0 | 510-570 | 540 | 1.4-3.1 | 2.3 | 1.4-9.3 | 5.4 |
RCP 8.5 | 560-630 | 595 | 2.6-4.8 | 3.7 | 2.6-14.4 | 8.5 |
Table 1 Pattern of changes under three latest climate emission scenarios
排放情景 Emission scenarios | CO2浓度 CO2 concentration (mg·L-1) | CO2浓度基准值 CO2 concentration reference value (mg·L-1) | 气温增加 Air temperature increment (℃) | 气温增加基准值 Air temperature increment reference value (℃) | 降水量增加 Precipitation increment (%) | 降水量增加基准值 Precipitation increment reference value (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RCP 2.6 | 440-480 | 460 | 0.3-1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3-5.1 | 2.7 |
RCP 6.0 | 510-570 | 540 | 1.4-3.1 | 2.3 | 1.4-9.3 | 5.4 |
RCP 8.5 | 560-630 | 595 | 2.6-4.8 | 3.7 | 2.6-14.4 | 8.5 |
气候变化情景 Climate change scenarios | 排放情景 Emission scenarios | CO2浓度 CO2 concentration | 气温 Air temperature | 降水量 Precipitation |
---|---|---|---|---|
C0T0P0 | 不变 No change | 不变 No change | 不变 No change | |
RCP 2.6 | 460 mg·L-1 | 不变 No change | 不变 No change | |
C1T0P0 | RCP 6.0 | 540 mg·L-1 | 不变 No change | 不变 No change |
RCP 8.5 | 595 mg·L-1 | 不变 No change | 不变 No change | |
RCP 2.6 | 不变 No change | +1.0 ℃ | 不变 No change | |
C0T1P0 | RCP 6.0 | 不变 No change | +2.3 ℃ | 不变 No change |
RCP 8.5 | 不变 No change | +3.7 ℃ | 不变 No change | |
RCP 2.6 | 不变 No change | 不变 No change | +2.7% | |
C0T0P1 | RCP 6.0 | 不变 No change | 不变 No change | +5.4% |
RCP 8.5 | 不变 No change | 不变 No change | +8.5% | |
RCP 2.6 | 不变 No change | +1.0 ℃ | +2.7% | |
C0T1P1 | RCP 6.0 | 不变 No change | +2.3 ℃ | +5.4% |
RCP 8.5 | 不变 No change | +3.7 ℃ | +8.5% | |
RCP 2.6 | 460 mg·L-1 | +1.0 ℃ | 不变 No change | |
C1T1P0 | RCP 6.0 | 540 mg·L-1 | +2.3 ℃ | 不变 No change |
RCP 8.5 | 595 mg·L-1 | +3.7 ℃ | 不变 No change | |
RCP 2.6 | 460 mg·L-1 | 不变 No change | +2.7% | |
C1T0P1 | RCP 6.0 | 540 mg·L-1 | 不变 No change | +5.4% |
RCP 8.5 | 595 mg·L-1 | 不变 No change | +8.5% | |
RCP 2.6 | 460 mg·L-1 | +1.0 ℃ | +2.7 % | |
C1T1P1 | RCP 6.0 | 540 mg·L-1 | +2.3 ℃ | +5.4 % |
RCP 8.5 | 595 mg·L-1 | +3.7 ℃ | +8.5 % |
Table 2 Different climate change scenarios
气候变化情景 Climate change scenarios | 排放情景 Emission scenarios | CO2浓度 CO2 concentration | 气温 Air temperature | 降水量 Precipitation |
---|---|---|---|---|
C0T0P0 | 不变 No change | 不变 No change | 不变 No change | |
RCP 2.6 | 460 mg·L-1 | 不变 No change | 不变 No change | |
C1T0P0 | RCP 6.0 | 540 mg·L-1 | 不变 No change | 不变 No change |
RCP 8.5 | 595 mg·L-1 | 不变 No change | 不变 No change | |
RCP 2.6 | 不变 No change | +1.0 ℃ | 不变 No change | |
C0T1P0 | RCP 6.0 | 不变 No change | +2.3 ℃ | 不变 No change |
RCP 8.5 | 不变 No change | +3.7 ℃ | 不变 No change | |
RCP 2.6 | 不变 No change | 不变 No change | +2.7% | |
C0T0P1 | RCP 6.0 | 不变 No change | 不变 No change | +5.4% |
RCP 8.5 | 不变 No change | 不变 No change | +8.5% | |
RCP 2.6 | 不变 No change | +1.0 ℃ | +2.7% | |
C0T1P1 | RCP 6.0 | 不变 No change | +2.3 ℃ | +5.4% |
RCP 8.5 | 不变 No change | +3.7 ℃ | +8.5% | |
RCP 2.6 | 460 mg·L-1 | +1.0 ℃ | 不变 No change | |
C1T1P0 | RCP 6.0 | 540 mg·L-1 | +2.3 ℃ | 不变 No change |
RCP 8.5 | 595 mg·L-1 | +3.7 ℃ | 不变 No change | |
RCP 2.6 | 460 mg·L-1 | 不变 No change | +2.7% | |
C1T0P1 | RCP 6.0 | 540 mg·L-1 | 不变 No change | +5.4% |
RCP 8.5 | 595 mg·L-1 | 不变 No change | +8.5% | |
RCP 2.6 | 460 mg·L-1 | +1.0 ℃ | +2.7 % | |
C1T1P1 | RCP 6.0 | 540 mg·L-1 | +2.3 ℃ | +5.4 % |
RCP 8.5 | 595 mg·L-1 | +3.7 ℃ | +8.5 % |
Fig. 2 Principles of 3-PG model (based on Sands & Landsberg, 2002). GPP, gross primary productivity; LAI, leaf area index; NPP, net primary productivity; PAR, photosynthetically active radiation; PAR°, photosynthetically active radiation of canopy absorption; PAR°°, photosynthetically active radiation of photosynthesis; SLA, specific leaf area; VPD, vapor pressure deficiency.
参数 Parameter | 值 Value | 分类 Category | 来源 Source |
---|---|---|---|
生物量的分配关系和比例 Allometric relationships and partitioning | |||
胸径2 cm树叶与干分配比 Foliage: stem partitioning ratio when DBH = 2 cm | 1.00 | A | 本文拟合 Fitted in this study |
胸径20 cm树叶与干分配比 Foliage: stem partitioning ratio when DBH = 20 cm | 0.5 | A | 本文拟合 Fitted in this study |
干生物量与胸径关系中常数值 Constant in the stem biomass and DBH relationship | 0.007 3 | A | 本文拟合 Fitted in this study |
干生物量与胸径关系中幂值 Power in the stem biomass and DBH relationship | 3.409 | A | 本文拟合 Fitted in this study |
净初级生产量分配给根的最大值 Maximum fraction of net primary productivity to roots | 0.95 | A | 本文拟合 Fitted in this study |
净初级生产量分配给根最小值 Minimum fraction of net primary productivity to roots | 0.5 | A | 本文拟合 Fitted in this study |
气温修正因子 Air temperature modifier | |||
生长最低气温 Minimum air temperature for growth (℃) | -25 | L | Xu et al., 2012 |
生长最适气温 Optimum air temperature for growth (℃) | 17 | L | Sun et al., 2009 |
生长最高气温 Maximum air temperature for growth (℃) | 27 | L | Xu et al., 2012 |
霜冻修正因子 Frost modifier | |||
每次霜冻导致生产力流失天数 Production lost days per frost day (d) | 1 | C | 默认参数 Default parameters |
冠层结构和过程 Canopy structure and process | |||
比叶面积 Specific leaf area (SLA) | |||
年龄为0时比叶面积 Specific leaf area at age 0 (m2·kg-1) | 12.93 | L | Song & Sun, 2012 |
成熟叶比叶面积 Specific leaf area for mature leaves (m2·kg-1) | 5 | L | Song & Sun, 2012 |
年龄为(SLA0 + SLA1)/2比叶面积 Age at which specific leaf area = (SLA0 + SLA1)/2 | 8 | L | Song & Sun, 2012 |
光截获 Light interception | |||
消光系数 Extinction coefficient | 0.5 | L | Amichev et al., 2011 |
郁闭度年龄 Age at canopy cover (a) | 5 | L | Gonzalez-Benecke et al., 2014 |
从林冠降水蒸发的最大比例 Maximum proportion of rainfall evaporated from canopy | 0.15 | C | 默认参数 Default parameters |
最大降水截留时叶面积指数 Leaf area index for maximum rainfall interception | 5 | C | 默认参数 Default parameters |
光合生产和呼吸 Photosynthesis production and respiration | |||
冠层量子效率 Canopy quantum efficiency (mol·mol-1) | 0.035 | L | Ma et al., 2008 |
净初级生产力/总初级生产力 Ratio of net primary productivity to gross primary productivity | 0.47 | L | Liu et al., 2015 |
树枝在干中的比例 Fraction of stem biomass as branch and bark | 0.15 | L | |
林分初生时树枝占干生物量的比例 Fraction of branch and bark at age = 0 | 0.15 | L | Coops & Waring, 2011 |
林分成熟时树枝占干生物量的比例 Fraction of branch and bark for mature stands | Coops & Waring, 2011 | ||
树枝占平均值时的林龄 Age at which fraction = (Branch and bark fraction at age = 0+Branch and bark fraction for mature stands)/2 | 1.5 | L | Coops & Waring, 2011 |
立地初始化条件 Stand initialization | |||
初始种植年 Years of initial plantation | 1973-1983 | M | 本研究测定 Measurements in this study |
初始密度 Initial stocking (trees·hm-2) | 3300 | M | 本研究测定 Measurements in this study |
海拔 Altitude (m) | 230-751 | M | 本研究测定 Measurements in this study |
纬度 Latitude (°) | 41.61-43.88 | M | 本研究测定 Measurements in this study |
肥力等级 Fertility rating | 0.7 ± 0.1 | M | 本研究测定 Measurements in this study |
土壤质地类型 Soil texture | Clay loam | M | 本研究测定 Measurements in this study |
Table 3 3-PG model parameters and the initial values for Larix olgensis plantations
参数 Parameter | 值 Value | 分类 Category | 来源 Source |
---|---|---|---|
生物量的分配关系和比例 Allometric relationships and partitioning | |||
胸径2 cm树叶与干分配比 Foliage: stem partitioning ratio when DBH = 2 cm | 1.00 | A | 本文拟合 Fitted in this study |
胸径20 cm树叶与干分配比 Foliage: stem partitioning ratio when DBH = 20 cm | 0.5 | A | 本文拟合 Fitted in this study |
干生物量与胸径关系中常数值 Constant in the stem biomass and DBH relationship | 0.007 3 | A | 本文拟合 Fitted in this study |
干生物量与胸径关系中幂值 Power in the stem biomass and DBH relationship | 3.409 | A | 本文拟合 Fitted in this study |
净初级生产量分配给根的最大值 Maximum fraction of net primary productivity to roots | 0.95 | A | 本文拟合 Fitted in this study |
净初级生产量分配给根最小值 Minimum fraction of net primary productivity to roots | 0.5 | A | 本文拟合 Fitted in this study |
气温修正因子 Air temperature modifier | |||
生长最低气温 Minimum air temperature for growth (℃) | -25 | L | Xu et al., 2012 |
生长最适气温 Optimum air temperature for growth (℃) | 17 | L | Sun et al., 2009 |
生长最高气温 Maximum air temperature for growth (℃) | 27 | L | Xu et al., 2012 |
霜冻修正因子 Frost modifier | |||
每次霜冻导致生产力流失天数 Production lost days per frost day (d) | 1 | C | 默认参数 Default parameters |
冠层结构和过程 Canopy structure and process | |||
比叶面积 Specific leaf area (SLA) | |||
年龄为0时比叶面积 Specific leaf area at age 0 (m2·kg-1) | 12.93 | L | Song & Sun, 2012 |
成熟叶比叶面积 Specific leaf area for mature leaves (m2·kg-1) | 5 | L | Song & Sun, 2012 |
年龄为(SLA0 + SLA1)/2比叶面积 Age at which specific leaf area = (SLA0 + SLA1)/2 | 8 | L | Song & Sun, 2012 |
光截获 Light interception | |||
消光系数 Extinction coefficient | 0.5 | L | Amichev et al., 2011 |
郁闭度年龄 Age at canopy cover (a) | 5 | L | Gonzalez-Benecke et al., 2014 |
从林冠降水蒸发的最大比例 Maximum proportion of rainfall evaporated from canopy | 0.15 | C | 默认参数 Default parameters |
最大降水截留时叶面积指数 Leaf area index for maximum rainfall interception | 5 | C | 默认参数 Default parameters |
光合生产和呼吸 Photosynthesis production and respiration | |||
冠层量子效率 Canopy quantum efficiency (mol·mol-1) | 0.035 | L | Ma et al., 2008 |
净初级生产力/总初级生产力 Ratio of net primary productivity to gross primary productivity | 0.47 | L | Liu et al., 2015 |
树枝在干中的比例 Fraction of stem biomass as branch and bark | 0.15 | L | |
林分初生时树枝占干生物量的比例 Fraction of branch and bark at age = 0 | 0.15 | L | Coops & Waring, 2011 |
林分成熟时树枝占干生物量的比例 Fraction of branch and bark for mature stands | Coops & Waring, 2011 | ||
树枝占平均值时的林龄 Age at which fraction = (Branch and bark fraction at age = 0+Branch and bark fraction for mature stands)/2 | 1.5 | L | Coops & Waring, 2011 |
立地初始化条件 Stand initialization | |||
初始种植年 Years of initial plantation | 1973-1983 | M | 本研究测定 Measurements in this study |
初始密度 Initial stocking (trees·hm-2) | 3300 | M | 本研究测定 Measurements in this study |
海拔 Altitude (m) | 230-751 | M | 本研究测定 Measurements in this study |
纬度 Latitude (°) | 41.61-43.88 | M | 本研究测定 Measurements in this study |
肥力等级 Fertility rating | 0.7 ± 0.1 | M | 本研究测定 Measurements in this study |
土壤质地类型 Soil texture | Clay loam | M | 本研究测定 Measurements in this study |
Fig. 3 Comparisons between simulated net primary productivity (NPP) by 3-PG model and the measured data for the 30 sample plots in Larix olgensis plantations. Triangles mean net primary productivity (NPP) values. The black line means linear regression line, and gray line means 1:1 positive linear regression line.
指标 Indicator | 校参数据 Calibration data | 验证数据 Validation data |
---|---|---|
R2 | 0.870 5 | 0.848 9 |
p | <0.05 (n = 60) | <0.05 (n = 30) |
平均误差 ME (g·m-2·a-1) | -9.568 | -6.422 |
平均相对误差 MRE (%) | -1.655 | -1.163 |
均方误 RMSE (g·m-2·a-1) | 67.794 | 60.399 |
相对均方误差 RRMSE (%) | 11.533 | 10.809 |
Table 4 The comparison of errors between calibration data and validation data
指标 Indicator | 校参数据 Calibration data | 验证数据 Validation data |
---|---|---|
R2 | 0.870 5 | 0.848 9 |
p | <0.05 (n = 60) | <0.05 (n = 30) |
平均误差 ME (g·m-2·a-1) | -9.568 | -6.422 |
平均相对误差 MRE (%) | -1.655 | -1.163 |
均方误 RMSE (g·m-2·a-1) | 67.794 | 60.399 |
相对均方误差 RRMSE (%) | 11.533 | 10.809 |
Fig. 4 Changes in net primary productivity (NPP) simulated by 3-PG model for the 30 sample plots over a rotation period in Larix olgensis plantations.
Fig. 5 Changes in monthly mean temperature (curves), precipitation (bar charts) and net primary productivity (NPP) in the study area during 1999-2013 (mean ± SD).
Fig. 6 The influences of optimum temperature for growth (Topt), age at which specific leaf area= (SLA0 + SLA1)/2) (tSLA) and days of production loss due to frost (kF) on simulated net primary productivity (NPP) in Larix olgensis plantations.
Fig. 7 Relative changes in simulated net primary productivity (NPP) for Larix olgensis plantations under RCP 2.6, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 scenarios (mean ± SD). C, CO2; P, precipitation; T, air temperature. 1, change; 0, no change.
样地号 Plot No. | 海拔 Elevation (m) | 土壤深度 Soil depth (cm) | 坡向 Aspect (°) | 坡位 Position | 坡度 Slope (°) | 林龄 Stand age (a) | 林分密度 Stand density (stems?hm-2) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
四平-1 Siping-1 | 260 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 31 | 950 |
四平-2 Siping-2 | 319 | 30 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 25 | 1 783 |
四平-3 Siping-3 | 280 | 35 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 1 383 |
临江-1 Linjiang-1 | 876 | 30 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 1 950 |
临江-2 Linjiang-2 | 676 | 40 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 1 000 |
临江-3 Linjiang-3 | 880 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 983 |
白山-1 Baishan-1 | 600 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 183 |
白山-2 Baishan-2 | 510 | 25 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 133 |
白山-3 Baishan-3 | 680 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 533 |
龙井-1 Longjin-1 | 660 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 28 | 633 |
龙井-2 Longjin-2 | 630 | 45 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 633 |
龙井-3 Longjin-3 | 630 | 29 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 333 |
辽源-1 Liaoyuan-1 | 300 | 37 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 633 |
辽源-2 Liaoyuan-2 | 380 | 35 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 1 983 |
辽源-3 Liaoyuan-3 | 380 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 1 500 |
和龙-1 Helong-1 | 510 | 45 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 17 | 1 050 |
和龙-2 Helong-2 | 500 | 32 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 3 516 |
和龙-3 Helong-3 | 751 | 40 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 1 000 |
舒兰-1 Shulan-1 | 230 | 51 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 1 800 |
舒兰-2 Shulan-2 | 280 | 51 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 1 617 |
舒兰-3 Shulan-3 | 310 | 51 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 17 | 2 150 |
通化-1 Tonghua-1 | 580 | 42 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 900 |
通化-2 Tonghua-2 | 710 | 50 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 2 267 |
通化-3 Tonghua-3 | 512 | 50 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 900 |
汪清-1 Wangqing-1 | 390 | 40 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 2 250 |
汪清-2 Wangqing-2 | 510 | 51 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 950 |
汪清-3 Wangqing-3 | 390 | 40 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 2 241 |
长春-1 Changchun-1 | 338 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 1 367 |
长春-2 Changchun-2 | 290 | 32 | 8 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 1 567 |
长春-3 Changchun-3 | 240 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 1 050 |
Appendix I Basic information of the Larix olgensis plantation stands
样地号 Plot No. | 海拔 Elevation (m) | 土壤深度 Soil depth (cm) | 坡向 Aspect (°) | 坡位 Position | 坡度 Slope (°) | 林龄 Stand age (a) | 林分密度 Stand density (stems?hm-2) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
四平-1 Siping-1 | 260 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 31 | 950 |
四平-2 Siping-2 | 319 | 30 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 25 | 1 783 |
四平-3 Siping-3 | 280 | 35 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 1 383 |
临江-1 Linjiang-1 | 876 | 30 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 1 950 |
临江-2 Linjiang-2 | 676 | 40 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 1 000 |
临江-3 Linjiang-3 | 880 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 983 |
白山-1 Baishan-1 | 600 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 183 |
白山-2 Baishan-2 | 510 | 25 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 133 |
白山-3 Baishan-3 | 680 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 533 |
龙井-1 Longjin-1 | 660 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 28 | 633 |
龙井-2 Longjin-2 | 630 | 45 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 633 |
龙井-3 Longjin-3 | 630 | 29 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 333 |
辽源-1 Liaoyuan-1 | 300 | 37 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 633 |
辽源-2 Liaoyuan-2 | 380 | 35 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 1 983 |
辽源-3 Liaoyuan-3 | 380 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 1 500 |
和龙-1 Helong-1 | 510 | 45 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 17 | 1 050 |
和龙-2 Helong-2 | 500 | 32 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 3 516 |
和龙-3 Helong-3 | 751 | 40 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 1 000 |
舒兰-1 Shulan-1 | 230 | 51 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 1 800 |
舒兰-2 Shulan-2 | 280 | 51 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 1 617 |
舒兰-3 Shulan-3 | 310 | 51 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 17 | 2 150 |
通化-1 Tonghua-1 | 580 | 42 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 900 |
通化-2 Tonghua-2 | 710 | 50 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 2 267 |
通化-3 Tonghua-3 | 512 | 50 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 900 |
汪清-1 Wangqing-1 | 390 | 40 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 2 250 |
汪清-2 Wangqing-2 | 510 | 51 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 950 |
汪清-3 Wangqing-3 | 390 | 40 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 2 241 |
长春-1 Changchun-1 | 338 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 1 367 |
长春-2 Changchun-2 | 290 | 32 | 8 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 1 567 |
长春-3 Changchun-3 | 240 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 1 050 |
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