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Effects of climate change on net primary productivity in Larix olgensis plantations based on process modeling
Ya-Lin XIE, Hai-Yan WANG, Xiang-Dong LEI
Chin J Plan Ecolo    2017, 41 (8): 826-839.   DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2016.0382
Abstract   (910 HTML128 PDF(pc) (1426KB)(1346)  

Aims Climate change has significant effects on net primary productivity (NPP) in forests, but there is a large uncertainty in the direction and magnitude of the effects. Process-based models are important tools for understanding the responses of forests to climate change. The objective of the study is to simulate changes in NPP of Larix olgensis plantations under future climate scenarios using 3-PG model in order to guide the management of L. olgensis plantations in the context of global climate change.Methods Data were obtained for 30 permanent plots of L. olgensis plantations in Siping, Linjiang, Baishan, etc. of Jilin Province, and a process model, 3-PG model, was applied to simulate changes in NPP over a rotation period of 40 years under different climate scenarios. Parameter sensitivity was also determined. Important findings The locally parameterized 3-PG model well simulates the changes in NPP against the measured NPP data, with values between 272.79-844.80 g·m-2·a-1 and both mean relative error and relative root mean square error within 12%. The NPP in L. olgensis plantations would increase significantly with increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature and precipitation collectively. However, an increase in temperature alone would lead to a decrease in NPP, but increases in precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration would increase NPP; the positive effect of increasing precipitation appears to be weaker than the negative effect of increasing temperature. Sensitivity analysis shows that the model performance is sensitive to the optimum temperature, stand age at which specific leaf area equals to half of the sum of specific leaf area at age 0 (SLA0) and that for mature leaves (SLA1), and days of production loss due to frost.

Fig. 3 Comparisons between simulated net primary productivity (NPP) by 3-PG model and the measured data for the 30 sample plots in Larix olgensis plantations. Triangles mean net primary productivity (NPP) values. The black line means linear regression line, and gray line means 1:1 positive linear regression line.
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图3   基于3-PG模型模拟30块长白落叶松林样地净初级生产力(NPP)与实测NPP的比较。图中三角代表样点的净初级生产力值, 黑线代表线性回归线, 灰线代表1:1正线性回归线。
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