基于生态位模型预测天麻全球潜在适生区

doi:10.17521/cjpe.2016.0380

植物生态学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (7): 770-778.DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2016.0380

基于生态位模型预测天麻全球潜在适生区

张琴¹, 张东方^1,², 吴明丽³, 郭杰^1,⁴, 孙成忠⁵, 谢彩香^1,^*()

¹中国医学科学院北京协和医学院药用植物研究所, 北京 100193
²江苏师范大学地理测绘与城乡规划学院, 江苏徐州 221116
³湖北中医药大学药学院, 武汉 430065
⁴武汉理工大学化学化工与生命科学学院, 武汉 430070
⁵中国测绘科学研究院, 北京 100039

收稿日期:2016-12-12 接受日期:2017-05-31 出版日期:2017-07-10 发布日期:2017-08-21
通讯作者: 谢彩香
作者简介:* 通信作者Author for correspondence (E-mail:caixiangxie@163.com)
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(81473304)和国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAI05B01)

Predicting the global areas for potential distribution of Gastrodia elata based on ecological niche models

Qin ZHANG¹, Dong-Fang ZHANG^1,², Ming-Li WU³, Jie GUO^1,⁴, Cheng-Zhong SUN⁵, Cai-Xiang XIE^1,^*()

¹Institute of Medicinal Plant Development, Peking Union Medical College, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100193, China

²School of Geographical Surveying and Urban and Rural Planning, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou, Jiangsu 221116, China

³Pharmacy Faculty, Hubei University of Chinese Medicine, Wuhan 430065, China

⁴School of Chemistry, Chemical Engineering and Life Sciences, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
and
⁵Chinese Academy of Surveying & Mapping, Beijing 100039, China

Received:2016-12-12 Accepted:2017-05-31 Online:2017-07-10 Published:2017-08-21
Contact: Cai-Xiang XIE
About author:KANG Jing-yao(1991-), E-mail: kangjingyao_nj@163.com。

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目前对药用植物天麻(Gastrodia elata)的全球潜在适生区研究较少, 基于多个生态位模型预测天麻在全球范围内的潜在适生区, 对天麻人工引种栽培及其产业发展具有重要意义。该文收集220个天麻全球分布点和19个生态因子数据, 最终筛选出8个环境变量参与模型训练, 基于3个生态位模型(BIOCLIM、DOMAIN和MAXENT)预测天麻全球潜在适生区, 并采用受试者工作特征曲线ROC和Kappa统计量分析比较不同模型的预测效果。结果表明: 3个模型的预测结果基本一致, 天麻全球潜在适生区主要分布在20°-50° N的亚洲地区, 其中中国、日本和韩国是集中分布地, 此外, 印度、尼泊尔以及欧洲地中海附近有少量适生区。其中最适宜区主要分布在: 中国四川盆地附近的省区以及中东部; 韩国中东部的忠清北道、庆尚北道和庆尚南道; 日本本州岛、九州岛以及四国岛, 因此中国、日本和韩国是天麻的主要产区。3个模型的受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC值)平均值均达到0.9以上, Kappa平均值均达到0.65以上, 能较好地预测天麻的潜在适生区, 其中MAXENT模型的精度较高, 其次是DOMAIN和BIOCLIM模型。

关键词: 天麻, 生态位模型, 潜在适生区, 模型评价

Abstract:

Aims Previous studies on the globally suitable areas for growing the medicinal plant Gastrodia elata is lacking. This study aims to predict the global areas for potential distribution of this plant based on multiple ecological niche models. Methods A total of 220 global distribution points of G. elata and 19 ecological variables were compiled and eight environmental variables were selected for the model training. Three ecological niche models, including BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, and MAXENT, were used to predict the global areas for potential distribution of G. elata. The resulting data of different models were analyzed and compared with two statistical criteria: the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Kappa value. Important findings The predictions of the three models are basically identical, showing that the global areas for potential distribution of G. elata are predominantly in the range of 20° N to 50° N in Asia, mainly in China, South Korea and Japan. A small proportion of the suitable areas occur in India, Nepal and the European countries near Mediterranean. The most suitable areas distribute in provinces close to the Sichuan Basin and the central East China, the mid-eastern parts of South Korea such as Chungcheongbuk-do, Gyeongsangbuk-do and Gyeongsangnam- do, and the Kyushu region and the Shikoku region on Japan’s main island. Therefore, these three countries can be used as the main production areas of G. elata for its commercial development. The AUC average values of the three models are all above 0.9 and the Kappa average values all above 0.65, justifying their applications for predicting the potential areas of G. elata. Among them, the MAXENT model appears to perform the best, followed by DOMAIN and BIOCLIM.

Key words: Gastrodia elata, ecological niche models, potential suitable distribution area, model evaluation

张琴, 张东方, 吴明丽, 郭杰, 孙成忠, 谢彩香. 基于生态位模型预测天麻全球潜在适生区. 植物生态学报, 2017, 41(7): 770-778. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2016.0380

Qin ZHANG, Dong-Fang ZHANG, Ming-Li WU, Jie GUO, Cheng-Zhong SUN, Cai-Xiang XIE. Predicting the global areas for potential distribution of Gastrodia elata based on ecological niche models. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2017, 41(7): 770-778. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2016.0380

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链接本文: https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/10.17521/cjpe.2016.0380

https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/Y2017/V41/I7/770

图/表 4

参考文献 36

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气候变量 Climatic variables	单位 Unit
年平均温度 Annual mean temperature	℃
月平均温度范围 Mean monthly temperature range	℃
等温性 Isothermality	-
温度的季节性 Temperature seasonality	-
最热月份最高温度 Max temperature of warmest month	℃
最冷月份最低温度 Min temperature of coldest month	℃
年温度变化范围 Annual temperature range	℃
最湿季平均温度 Mean temperature of wettest quarter	℃
最干季平均温度 Mean temperature of driest quarter	℃
最暖季平均温度 Mean temperature of warmest quarter	℃
最冷季平均温度 Mean temperature of coldest quarter	℃
年降水量 Annual precipitation	mm
最湿月份降水量 Precipitation of wettest month	mm
最干月份降水量 Precipitation of driest month	mm
降水的季节性 Precipitation seasonality	-
最湿季降水量 Precipitation of wettest quarter	mm
最干季降水量 Precipitation of driest quarter	mm
最暖季降水量 Precipitation of warmest quarter	mm
最冷季降水量 Precipitation of coldest quarter	mm

气候变量 Climatic variables	单位 Unit
年平均温度 Annual mean temperature	℃
月平均温度范围 Mean monthly temperature range	℃
等温性 Isothermality	-
温度的季节性 Temperature seasonality	-
最热月份最高温度 Max temperature of warmest month	℃
最冷月份最低温度 Min temperature of coldest month	℃
年温度变化范围 Annual temperature range	℃
最湿季平均温度 Mean temperature of wettest quarter	℃
最干季平均温度 Mean temperature of driest quarter	℃
最暖季平均温度 Mean temperature of warmest quarter	℃
最冷季平均温度 Mean temperature of coldest quarter	℃
年降水量 Annual precipitation	mm
最湿月份降水量 Precipitation of wettest month	mm
最干月份降水量 Precipitation of driest month	mm
降水的季节性 Precipitation seasonality	-
最湿季降水量 Precipitation of wettest quarter	mm
最干季降水量 Precipitation of driest quarter	mm
最暖季降水量 Precipitation of warmest quarter	mm
最冷季降水量 Precipitation of coldest quarter	mm

组数 No. of groups	AUC			Kappa
组数 No. of groups	BIOCLIM	DOMAIN	MAXENT	BIOCLIM	DOMAIN	MAXENT
1	0.914	0.954	0.979	0.700	0.829	0.670
2	0.945	0.972	0.980	0.829	0.851	0.651
3	0.926	0.974	0.979	0.795	0.859	0.717
4	0.902	0.943	0.985	0.759	0.829	0.637
5	0.948	0.966	0.979	0.819	0.822	0.575
6	0.960	0.967	0.981	0.833	0.806	0.664
7	0.938	0.953	0.981	0.789	0.827	0.757
8	0.940	0.962	0.980	0.806	0.883	0.816
9	0.935	0.955	0.980	0.780	0.819	0.664
10	0.949	0.963	0.977	0.800	0.851	0.790

组数 No. of groups	AUC			Kappa
组数 No. of groups	BIOCLIM	DOMAIN	MAXENT	BIOCLIM	DOMAIN	MAXENT
1	0.914	0.954	0.979	0.700	0.829	0.670
2	0.945	0.972	0.980	0.829	0.851	0.651
3	0.926	0.974	0.979	0.795	0.859	0.717
4	0.902	0.943	0.985	0.759	0.829	0.637
5	0.948	0.966	0.979	0.819	0.822	0.575
6	0.960	0.967	0.981	0.833	0.806	0.664
7	0.938	0.953	0.981	0.789	0.827	0.757
8	0.940	0.962	0.980	0.806	0.883	0.816
9	0.935	0.955	0.980	0.780	0.819	0.664
10	0.949	0.963	0.977	0.800	0.851	0.790

基于生态位模型预测天麻全球潜在适生区

Predicting the global areas for potential distribution of Gastrodia elata based on ecological niche models

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