SIMULATION AND ANALYSIS ON FUTURE CARBON BALANCE OF THREE DECIDUOUS FORESTS IN BEIJING MOUNTAIN AREA, WARM TEMPERATE ZONE OF CHINA

doi:10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2009.03.011

Abstract

Abstract:

Aims Climate change is expected to cause changes of carbon cycling in forest ecosystems, and prediction research suggests there is dramatic spatial heterogeneity and uncertainty in responses of carbon balance of forest ecosystems to climate change. The goals of our research were to predict and analyze impacts of climate change on the carbon cycling of warm temperate forests in Beijing mountain area in the next 100 years and to understand the heterogeneity and uncertainty on the ecosystem scale with LPJ-GUESS model.

Methods The ecosystem model was used to learn how forest ecosystem productivity and carbon bal-ance change in a long-term time scale and to learn about differences of carbon balance among various ecosystems by comparing ecosystem components of carbon balance. The dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS), used for the first time in China and driven by A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission sce-narios of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC, projected climate change impacts on carbon balance for three typical warm temperate forest ecosystems (oak, birch and Chinese pine forests) in the Dongling Mountain area of Beijing, China.

Important findings Net ecosystem primary productivity (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) will increase in the three forests, and the A2 scenario was associated with larger changes in NPP and Rh than the B2 scenario. Because of differences in species composition among the forests, increases in NPP and Rh were different and changes in net ecosystem exchange (NEE) were different among the forests: oakforest switched from a sink to a small source of carbon, birch forest remained as a smaller sink of carbon, and Chinese pine forest became a larger carbon sink over the next 100 years. Also, carbon biomass will generally increase in the forests by 2100. Comparing SRES A2 with B2, there was larger carbon storage in the relative lower emission scenario (B2). Projected differences in carbon balance among these forests in the same area were more dependent on species composition than climate factors (A2 and B2 scenarios) under future climate change.

Key words: NPP, R_h, NEE, carbon flux, carbon balance, LPJ-GUESS model, climate change

LIU Rui-Gang, LI Na, SU Hong-Xin, SANG Wei-Guo. SIMULATION AND ANALYSIS ON FUTURE CARBON BALANCE OF THREE DECIDUOUS FORESTS IN BEIJING MOUNTAIN AREA, WARM TEMPERATE ZONE OF CHINA[J]. Chin J Plant Ecol, 2009, 33(3): 516-534.

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Figures/Tables 9

Fig.1 The changes of average annual temperature (℃) and precipitation (mm) in the study area for 1993-2007

Table 1 Parameters distinguishing the eight tree species used in the LPJ-GUESS model

Table 2 Mean changes in air temperature (℃) and precipitation (%) under SRES A2 and B2 scenarios for 2020, 2050, 2070 and 2100 compared with 1961-1990 and corresponding CO2 concentrations (mg·kg-1) used in the study

Table 3 Comparison of average simulated values by LPJ-GUESS with observations for the three forest types in the similar period (31~50)

Fig.2 NPP development predicted by LPJ-GUESS for three forests under SRES A2 and B2 (2071-2100) and modern climate (1961-1990)

Table 4 Mean changes in NPP for 2071-2100 (SRES A2, B2) compared with 1961-1990 (modern climate) for three forests simulated by LPJ-GUESS

Table 5 Mean changes in net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE), vegetation carbon exchange (Veg.) and soil carbon ex-change (Soil) for 2071-2100 (SRES A2, B2) compared with 1961-1990 (modern climate) for three forest types simulated by LPJ-GUESS (negative values represent a net uptake and positive values a net release of ecosystem carbon)

Fig.3 5-year smoothing average NEE changes predicted by LPJ-GUESS for three forests under SRES A2 and B2 (2071-2100) and modern climate (1961-1990)

Fig.4 C biomass changes predicted by LPJ-GUESS for three forests under SRES A2 and B2 (2071-2100) and modern climate (1961-1990)

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