利用树木年轮宽度资料重建川西卧龙地区过去159年夏季温度的变化

doi:10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2010.06.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

根据川西卧龙地区林线位置岷江冷杉(Abies faxoniana)的年轮宽度资料, 分析了该地区树木年轮宽度与气候要素的关系, 并重建了该地区1850年以来夏季(6-8月份)温度的变化历史。结果表明: 川西卧龙地区在过去159年来的温度变化上, 最为明显的特征是20世纪40年代以来的显著变暖趋势, 而在20世纪40年代以前的温度明显偏低, 主要的低温时期在1850-1870年和1890-1930年。该温度序列的冷暖期与附近地区的冰芯、冰川进退资料, 以及对于夏季温度响应敏感的树轮年表都有着较好的对应关系, 这表明重建序列记录了可靠的区域尺度的温度信号。对重建温度序列的小波分析表明, 较为明显的有2-8年和10-16年的周期, 而这些周期可能与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动气候系统和太阳活动周期有一定的关系。

关键词: 温度重建, 树木年轮, 川西地区, 卧龙国家级自然保护区

Abstract:

Aims Improved understanding of tree growth responses to climate is needed to model and predict forest ecosystem responses to current and future climatic variability. Coniferous forests in Wolong National Natural Reserve occupy broad elevational ranges with varied geology and topography and thus have great potential for dendroclimatological studies. However, little is known about the growth-climate relationships in this region compared with the nearby Tibetan Plateau. Our objective was to determine the main climate responses in diameter growth and examine the regional climate variability within this ecological complex area.

Methods We used standardized dendroecological methods to study the effects of climatic variability on radial growth of a subalpine conifer, Abies faxoniana, which is the dominant and economically most important tree species in this region. We sampled 58 stands of A. faxoniana in a treeline site (3 450 m) and extracted increment cores for radial growth analyses. Several statistics were used to identify common patterns of interannual growth variability, and correlation and regression analyses were used to identify climatic factors associated with that variability.

Important findings The main limiting factor for tree growth was temperature in summer (June to August), followed by temperature in early spring (March), relative humidity from June to September of the current year and precipitation in October of the prior year. The summer (June to August) temperature reconstruction, spanning A.D. 1850-2008, was verified with independent data and accounted for 28.8% of the actual temperature variance during the period in common period (1955-2008). The most obvious characteristic of the reconstructed temperature was a significant warming trend after the 1940s. Before the 1940s, the climate of this region was consistent cold, with cold intervals in the 1850s-1870s and the 1890s-1930s. Because the low-frequency variation of the reconstruction agreed with previously published tree-ring proxies (ice cores of nearby glaciers), it appears that our reconstructed series was reliable and could aid in the evaluation of regional climate signal. Wavelet spectral analysis indicated the existence of some decadal (10-16 years) and interannual (2-8 years) cycles, which probably are ascribed to solar variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), respectively.

Key words: temperature reconstruction, tree ring, western Sichuan, Wolong National Natural Reserve

李宗善, 刘国华, 张齐兵, 胡婵娟, 罗淑政, 刘兴良, 何飞. 利用树木年轮宽度资料重建川西卧龙地区过去159年夏季温度的变化. 植物生态学报, 2010, 34(6): 628-641. DOI: 10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2010.06.002

LI Zong-Shan, LIU Guo-Hua, ZHANG Qi-Bing, HU Chan-Juan, LUO Shu-Zheng, LIU Xing-Liang, HE Fei. Tree ring reconstruction of summer temperature variations over the past 159 years in Wolong National Natural Reserve, western Sichuan, China. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2010, 34(6): 628-641. DOI: 10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2010.06.002

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链接本文: https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2010.06.002

https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/Y2010/V34/I6/628

图/表 9

图1 卧龙国家级自然保护区树木年轮采样点和气象站分布图。

Fig. 1 Location map of tree-ring sample sites and meteorological station in the Wolong National Natural Reserve of western Sichuan, China.

图2 川西地区都江堰气象站月平均温度和降水变化(1955-2008年)

Fig. 2 Variations of mean monthly temperature (℃) and precipitation (mm) of Dujiangyan meteorological station in western Sichuan from 1955 to 2008.

图3 卧龙国家级自然保护区岷江冷杉的标准年表。

Fig. 3 The standard tree-ring chronologies of Abies faxoniana in Wolong National Natural Reserve of western Sichuan, China.

表1 卧龙国家级自然保护区树轮采样点概况、标准年表主要特征参数及共同区间分析结果

Table 1 Site information, chronology statistics and results of common interval span analysis of standard tree-ring chronology from Wolong National Natural Reserve, western Sichuan of China

经度 Longitude	102°59′ E
纬度 Latitude	30°53′ N
海拔 Altitude (m)	3 450
采样植株数量 No. of sample trees	47
样芯数量 No. of cores	47
年表长度 Chronology length	A.D. 1850-2008
平均宽度 Mean tree width (mm)	0.752
标准差 SD	0.287
平均敏感度 Mean sensitivity	0.123
一阶自相关 Autocorrelation order 1	0.776
共同区间 Common interval time span	A.D. 1930-2008
样芯间相关系数 Rbar (Mean inter-series correlation)	0.387
信噪比 Signal-to-noise ratio	6.931
样本群体表达信号 Express population signal	0.874
第一主成分所占方差量 Variance in first eigenvector	20.94%

图4 卧龙国家级自然保护区树轮年表与气候要素(平均温度、最高温度、最低温度、降雨和相对湿度)的相关和响应函数分析。柱形图表示相关分析结果, 点线图表示响应分析结果, 虚线表示相关分析显著性水平线(p < 0.05), *表示响应函数分析显著月份(p < 0.05)。

Fig. 4 Correlation and response function analysis between climate (mean, maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and relative humidity) and tree-ring chronology of Wolong National Natural Reserve, western Sichuan of China. Bar diagrams are the results of correlation analysis and line graph is the results of response function analysis. The dashed lines represent significant effects (p < 0.05) for correlation analysis, and the asterisks above columns represent significant effects (p < 0.05) for response function analysis.

图5 树轮指数与夏季(6-8月)温度的散点图(1955-2008年)。

Fig. 5 Scatter plot of summer (June to August) temperature and tree-ring indices with linear relationship highlighted during the period of 1955-2008.

表2 卧龙国家级自然保护区气候重建模型的留一法统计检验

Table 2 Leave-one-out cross-validation statistics of climate-growth model for climate reconstruction in Wolong National Natural Reserve of western Sichuan, China.

	r	R²	R²_adj	RE	CE	ST	PMT	DW
校准 Calibration	0.536	0.287^*	0.273^*	-	-	-	-	-
验证 Verification	0.493	0.243^*	0.227^*	0.241	0.223	38+/17-^*	3.841^*	1.645

图6 卧龙国家级自然保护区的气候重建。A, 重建与实测夏季温度序列比较(1955-2008年)。B, 夏季温度重建序列(1850-2008年), 黑色粗线是11年滑动平均。

Fig. 6 Climate reconstruction in Wolong National Natural Reserve of western Sichuan, China. A, The comparison of actual and reconstructed summer temperature from 1955 to 2008. B, Tree-ring reconstruction of summer temperature, plotted annually from 1850 to 2008, along with a smoothed 11-year moving average.

图7 卧龙国家级自然保护区气候重建序列的波谱分析。A, 夏季温度重建序列。B, 重建序列小波权重波谱。灰色区域分别代表75%、50%、25%和5%的波谱权重; 黑色阔线代表红噪音5%的显著水平。

Fig. 7 Wavelet analysis of the reconstructed series in Wolong National Natural Reserve of western Sichuan, China. A, The reconstructed series of summer temperature. B, The wavelet power spectrum for the reconstructed series. Contours enclosing the gray regions are 75%, 50%, 25%, and 25% of the wavelet power, respectively. Black contour is the 5% significant level, using a red-noise (autoregressive lag 1) background spectrum.

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