MODELLING THE DISTRIBUTION OF FIVE CARAGANA SPECIES IN TEMPERATE NORTHERN CHINA

doi:10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2009.01.002

Abstract

Abstract:

Aims Our objective was to investigate the actual geographical distribution patterns and model the potential distribution ranges of five Caragana species, providing their distribution scenarios under future climate change.
Methods We collected spatial distribution data for five major Caragana species in the arid to semi-arid temperate regions of northern China and mapped their current distribution ranges using ArcGIS 9.0. Fifteen water and thermal indices of biological significance were chosen and calculated based on long-term climatic observations from weather stations. Using variance analysis, multiple comparison and factor analysis, we investigated the dominant driving factors for the geographical distribution differences of the five Caragana species. The potential distribution of five Caragana species under present climate and the impacts of future climate change on their patterns were simulated and predicted using software “DIVA-GIS” coupled BIOCLIM, a species distributional model.
Important findings Distributions of C. microphylla, C. intermedia and C. korshinskii occurred in a substitution pattern from east to west, then replacement by C. tibetica southwestward and C. stenophylla northwestward. Moisture especially humidity, was the dominant factor for C. microphylla and C. intermedia. Precipitation during the growing season and annual mean precipitation dominated the distributions of C. intermedia and C. korshinskii. Maximum summer temperature controlled the distribution of C. korshinskii and C. tibetica, and minimum winter temperature determined the ranges of C. korshinskii and C. stenophylla. Simulated present distributions matched actual distribution ranges. Under the future climate scenario with doubled CO₂concentration, the five Caragana species all shifted northward and reduced their areas in China. Evaluation by ROC curve and Kappa statistic showed that BIOCLIM predicted accurately.

Key words: Caragana species, geographical distribution pattern, driving factors, climate change, simulation and prediction

WANG Juan, NI Jian. MODELLING THE DISTRIBUTION OF FIVE CARAGANA SPECIES IN TEMPERATE NORTHERN CHINA[J]. Chin J Plant Ecol, 2009, 33(1): 12-24.

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Figures/Tables 5

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气候指标 Climatic indexes	小叶锦鸡儿C. microphylla			中间锦鸡儿C. intermedia			柠条锦鸡儿C. korshinskii			藏锦鸡儿C. tibetica			狭叶锦鸡儿C. stenophylla
气候指标 Climatic indexes	Mean±SD	Min	Max	Mean±SD	Min	Max	Mean±SD	Min	Max	Mean±SD	Min	Max	Mean±SD	Min	Max
Tann	8.55±3.68^a	-0.96	14.77	7.02±2.51^b	1.38	14.15	7.49±2.30^ab	1.53	14.15	5.40±3.47^c	-3.84	12.73	6.41±2.65^bc	-0.73	12.62
WI	85.34±19.73^a	47.40	125.27	74.97±13.49^b	47.64	117.36	77.01±13.22^b	42.85	117.36	54.42±25.73^c	4.90	94.80	74.42±14.28^b	31.24	111.60
CI	-42.70±25.81^a	-122.70	-6.40	-50.76±18.29^ab	-100.60	-7.62	-47.13±15.49^a	-84.55	-7.62	-49.59±20.07^ab	-111.00	-2.10	-57.55±20.64^b	-118.20	-20.18
MTWM	23.21±2.21^a	17.80	28.87	22.13±1.90^b	17.50	28.87	22.30±1.91^b	17.21	28.87	17.69±4.86^c	7.50	24.10	22.18±2.00^b	13.75	26.60
MTCM	-8.21±6.05^a	-25.10	1.50	-10.19±4.05^ab	-20.80	1.42	-9.32±3.45^a	-18.10	1.42	-8.77±3.89^a	-16.80	3.90	-11.84±4.43^b	-23.40	-3.45
ART	31.41±4.74^a	21.50	45.10	32.32±3.47^ac	24.70	41.90	31.62±2.76^a	24.64	41.40	26.46±5.48^b	16.00	36.00	34.03±4.37^c	24.01	44.50
BT	10.43±2.09^a	6.35	14.77	9.34±1.34^b	6.62	14.15	9.54±1.35b	6.15	14.15	7.51±2.55^c	2.08	12.73	9.21±1.39^b	5.44	13.05
MAX	37.80±2.38^a	27.60	43.30	37.56±2.34^a	31.40	45.60	36.94±2.33^a	29.90	41.70	33.37±4.80^b	22.40	41.10	37.60±2.62^a	27.90	42.70
MIN	-25.39±7.57^a	-42.30	-9.10	-28.60±5.28^bc	-39.70	-9.10	-28.02±5.12^b	-39.40	-9.10	-27.36±6.27^ab	-48.10	-10.60	-30.54±5.36^c	-41.50	-19.70
Pann	476.29±153.04^a	173.63	1042.70	322.96±132.10^bc	113.00	889.12	313.39±163.49^bc	42.40	889.12	364.87±185.80^b	16.10	904.70	274.13±117.99^c	53.60	536.84
HI	5.67±1.78^a	2.06	19.75	4.46±1.88^b	1.33	7.67	4.21±2.13^b	0.46	7.97	12.41±16.14^c	0.37	82.75	3.97±2.37^b	0.59	17.00
S	40.35±12.30^a	14.83	109.50	29.22±11.81^b	9.32	70.26	28.18±14.34^b	3.64	70.26	39.75±24.48^ac	1.68	104.02	25.89±11.49^b	4.82	63.60
PER	1.40±0.49^a	0.41	3.44	2.05±1.07^b	0.94	5.27	2.70±2.59^b	0.94	15.28	2.06±2.90^ab	0.27	22.79	2.60±1.93^b	0.60	11.78
P_5-9	388.65±113.04^a	141.68	836.20	267.97±102.16^bc	95.00	644.98	257.62±126.28^bc	33.40	644.98	302.40±144.76^b	14.80	638.90	225.54±105.00^c	40.60	462.22
P_10-4	87.64±49.57^a	20.30	244.14	54.99±34.14^b	14.90	244.14	55.77±41.56^b	9.00	244.14	62.47±49.21^b	1.30	344.60	48.59±29.29^b	13.00	166.00

气候指标 Climatic indexes	小叶锦鸡儿C. microphylla			中间锦鸡儿C. intermedia			柠条锦鸡儿C. korshinskii			藏锦鸡儿C. tibetica			狭叶锦鸡儿C. stenophylla
气候指标 Climatic indexes	Mean±SD	Min	Max	Mean±SD	Min	Max	Mean±SD	Min	Max	Mean±SD	Min	Max	Mean±SD	Min	Max
Tann	8.55±3.68^a	-0.96	14.77	7.02±2.51^b	1.38	14.15	7.49±2.30^ab	1.53	14.15	5.40±3.47^c	-3.84	12.73	6.41±2.65^bc	-0.73	12.62
WI	85.34±19.73^a	47.40	125.27	74.97±13.49^b	47.64	117.36	77.01±13.22^b	42.85	117.36	54.42±25.73^c	4.90	94.80	74.42±14.28^b	31.24	111.60
CI	-42.70±25.81^a	-122.70	-6.40	-50.76±18.29^ab	-100.60	-7.62	-47.13±15.49^a	-84.55	-7.62	-49.59±20.07^ab	-111.00	-2.10	-57.55±20.64^b	-118.20	-20.18
MTWM	23.21±2.21^a	17.80	28.87	22.13±1.90^b	17.50	28.87	22.30±1.91^b	17.21	28.87	17.69±4.86^c	7.50	24.10	22.18±2.00^b	13.75	26.60
MTCM	-8.21±6.05^a	-25.10	1.50	-10.19±4.05^ab	-20.80	1.42	-9.32±3.45^a	-18.10	1.42	-8.77±3.89^a	-16.80	3.90	-11.84±4.43^b	-23.40	-3.45
ART	31.41±4.74^a	21.50	45.10	32.32±3.47^ac	24.70	41.90	31.62±2.76^a	24.64	41.40	26.46±5.48^b	16.00	36.00	34.03±4.37^c	24.01	44.50
BT	10.43±2.09^a	6.35	14.77	9.34±1.34^b	6.62	14.15	9.54±1.35b	6.15	14.15	7.51±2.55^c	2.08	12.73	9.21±1.39^b	5.44	13.05
MAX	37.80±2.38^a	27.60	43.30	37.56±2.34^a	31.40	45.60	36.94±2.33^a	29.90	41.70	33.37±4.80^b	22.40	41.10	37.60±2.62^a	27.90	42.70
MIN	-25.39±7.57^a	-42.30	-9.10	-28.60±5.28^bc	-39.70	-9.10	-28.02±5.12^b	-39.40	-9.10	-27.36±6.27^ab	-48.10	-10.60	-30.54±5.36^c	-41.50	-19.70
Pann	476.29±153.04^a	173.63	1042.70	322.96±132.10^bc	113.00	889.12	313.39±163.49^bc	42.40	889.12	364.87±185.80^b	16.10	904.70	274.13±117.99^c	53.60	536.84
HI	5.67±1.78^a	2.06	19.75	4.46±1.88^b	1.33	7.67	4.21±2.13^b	0.46	7.97	12.41±16.14^c	0.37	82.75	3.97±2.37^b	0.59	17.00
S	40.35±12.30^a	14.83	109.50	29.22±11.81^b	9.32	70.26	28.18±14.34^b	3.64	70.26	39.75±24.48^ac	1.68	104.02	25.89±11.49^b	4.82	63.60
PER	1.40±0.49^a	0.41	3.44	2.05±1.07^b	0.94	5.27	2.70±2.59^b	0.94	15.28	2.06±2.90^ab	0.27	22.79	2.60±1.93^b	0.60	11.78
P_5-9	388.65±113.04^a	141.68	836.20	267.97±102.16^bc	95.00	644.98	257.62±126.28^bc	33.40	644.98	302.40±144.76^b	14.80	638.90	225.54±105.00^c	40.60	462.22
P_10-4	87.64±49.57^a	20.30	244.14	54.99±34.14^b	14.90	244.14	55.77±41.56^b	9.00	244.14	62.47±49.21^b	1.30	344.60	48.59±29.29^b	13.00	166.00

	ROC曲线 (曲线下面积AUC) ROC curve (Area Under Curve)	Kappa统计量 (k值) Kappa statistic (k value)
小叶锦鸡儿 Caragana microphylla	0.950	0.877
中间锦鸡儿 C. intermedia	0.985	0.964
柠条锦鸡儿 C. korshinskii	0.982	0.940
藏锦鸡儿 C. tibetica	0.959	0.892
狭叶锦鸡儿 C. stenophylla	0.946	0.858

	ROC曲线 (曲线下面积AUC) ROC curve (Area Under Curve)	Kappa统计量 (k值) Kappa statistic (k value)
小叶锦鸡儿 Caragana microphylla	0.950	0.877
中间锦鸡儿 C. intermedia	0.985	0.964
柠条锦鸡儿 C. korshinskii	0.982	0.940
藏锦鸡儿 C. tibetica	0.959	0.892
狭叶锦鸡儿 C. stenophylla	0.946	0.858