植物生态学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (7): 631-640.DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1258.2013.00065
金佳鑫1,江洪1,2,*(),彭威1,张林静1,卢学鹤1,徐建辉1,3,张秀英1,王颖1
收稿日期:
2013-03-05
接受日期:
2013-05-10
出版日期:
2013-03-05
发布日期:
2013-07-05
通讯作者:
江洪
基金资助:
JIN Jia-Xin1,JIANG Hong1,2,*(),PENG Wei1,ZHANG Lin-Jing1,LU Xue-He1,XU Jian-Hui1,3,ZHANG Xiu-Ying1,WANG Ying1
Received:
2013-03-05
Accepted:
2013-05-10
Online:
2013-03-05
Published:
2013-07-05
Contact:
JIANG Hong
摘要:
基于单类别支持向量机方法的物种分布模型, 利用政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)气候情景模式和联合国粮食与农业组织(FAO)的全球土壤数据, 模拟1981-2099年我国毛竹(Phyllostachys edulis)的潜在空间分布及变化趋势, 比较考虑土壤因子前后模拟结果的差异, 旨在探究土壤因子对毛竹潜在空间分布模拟结果的影响。结果表明, 仅以气候因子为模拟变量和同时考虑气候与土壤因子为模拟变量的毛竹潜在空间分布模拟均具有较高精度, 毛竹潜在分布区表现为面积增加并向北扩张。模拟因子重要性分析表明表征温暖程度的气候因子在毛竹潜在分布模拟中起主导作用, 而表征土壤质地和酸碱性的土壤因子以限制性作用为主。同时考虑气候与土壤因子的模拟结果具有较高的模拟效率, 且在未来气候变化情景模式下毛竹潜在分布区面积增幅与向北迁移幅度均小于仅使用气候因子的模拟, 表明土壤要素对毛竹潜在分布具有明显的限制作用, 该结果对现在的毛竹潜在分布模拟研究具有重要的补充作用。
金佳鑫,江洪,彭威,张林静,卢学鹤,徐建辉,张秀英,王颖. 基于物种分布模型评价土壤因子对我国毛竹潜在分布的影响. 植物生态学报, 2013, 37(7): 631-640. DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1258.2013.00065
JIN Jia-Xin,JIANG Hong,PENG Wei,ZHANG Lin-Jing,LU Xue-He,XU Jian-Hui,ZHANG Xiu-Ying,WANG Ying. Evaluating the impact of soil factors on the potential distribution of Phyllostachys edulis (bamboo) in China based on the species distribution model. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2013, 37(7): 631-640. DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1258.2013.00065
无土壤限制 Without soil constrain | 有土壤限制 With soil constrain | |
---|---|---|
模拟栅格数 Grid number of simulation | 27 358 | 25 918 |
真阳性率 True positive rate | 0.994 8 | 0.988 6 |
受试者工作特征曲线下面积 Area under receiver operating characteristic curve | 0.916 8 | 0.925 1 |
表1 1981-2000年毛竹潜在分布的模拟结果评价
Table 1 Simulation assessments of potential distribution of Phyllostachys edulis during 1981-2000
无土壤限制 Without soil constrain | 有土壤限制 With soil constrain | |
---|---|---|
模拟栅格数 Grid number of simulation | 27 358 | 25 918 |
真阳性率 True positive rate | 0.994 8 | 0.988 6 |
受试者工作特征曲线下面积 Area under receiver operating characteristic curve | 0.916 8 | 0.925 1 |
图2 未来气候情景模式A2下1981-2099年我国毛竹潜在分布年际变化。
Fig. 2 Inter-annual variations of potential distribution of Phyllostachys edulis in China from 1981 to 2099 under the future climate change scenario A2.
图3 未来气候情景模式A2下1981-2099年我国毛竹潜在分布随纬度的变化。
Fig. 3 Latitudinal variations in potential distribution of Phyllostachys edulis in China from 1981 to 2099 under the future climate change scenario A2.
图4 未来气候情景模式A2下1981-2099年我国毛竹潜在分布变化。
Fig. 4 Variation of potential distribution of Phyllostachys edulis in China from 1981 to 2099 under the future climate change scenario A2.
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