气候变化和人类活动对内蒙古植被总初级生产力的定量影响

doi:10.17521/cjpe.2023.0134

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

内蒙古自治区作为中国北方重要的生态安全屏障, 研究其植被变化对北方地区的生态安全意义重大。该研究基于1982-2017年内蒙古地区的涡流协方差-光利用效率模型反演的植被总初级生产力(EC-LUE GPP)等多源遥感数据, 利用趋势分析和相关性分析法, 分析了内蒙古地区植被GPP的时空变化特征及其与气温、降水和土壤湿度的相关性。在此基础上, 采用多元线性回归和残差分析方法, 分解并量化气候变化和人类活动影响下的GPP, 分不同时间段开展了其对植被GPP影响的分析, 探索不同植被类型GPP对驱动因素的响应。主要结果有: (1)三种气象要素与植被GPP表现出良好的相关性, 其中降水和土壤湿度与GPP的相关性更高。(2) 1982-1990年期间植被GPP呈现不显著波动上升, 其余3个时间段(1991-2000、2001-2010、2011-2017年)呈不显著波动下降趋势。整体上呈下降趋势的区域占内蒙古植被总面积的55%, 另外45%的区域呈显著上升趋势。(3)除2001-2010年期间外, 其他3个时间段内(1982-1990、1991-2000、2011-2017年)气候变化对植被恢复起决定性作用, 分别解释20%、16%、13%的植被恢复; 人类活动在植被退化区占主导地位, 分别解释13%、19%、20%的植被退化。研究结果可为内蒙古生态环境保护与管理政策的实施以及绿色可持续发展提供科学参考。

关键词: 气候变化, 人类活动, 总初级生产力, 残差分析, 内蒙古

Abstract:

Aims Nei Mongol is an important ecological security barrier in northern China, and the study of changes in its vegetation productivity is of great significance to the ecological security of the northern region.

Methods Based on multi-source remote sensing data such as Eddy Covariance-Light Use Efficiency Gross Primary Productivity (EC-LUE GPP) in Nei Mongol from 1982 to 2017, this paper uses trend analysis and correlation analysis to analyze the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of vegetation gross primary production (GPP) in Nei Mongol and its correlation with air temperature, precipitation and soil moisture. On this basis, multiple linear regression and residual analysis methods were used to decompose and quantify GPP under the influence of climate changes and human activities, divide different time periods to carry out its impact on vegetation GPP, and explore the impact of different vegetation types on the driving factors response.

Important findings (1) Three meteorological elements showed good correlation with vegetation GPP, among which precipitation and soil moisture had higher correlations with GPP. (2) During the period 1982-1990, vegetation GPP showed an insignificant increasing trend with large fluctuations and the remaining three time periods (1991-2000, 2001-2010, 2011-2017) showed an insignificant downward trend. The areas with an overall downward trend accounted for 55% of the total area, and the other 45% showed a significant upward trend. (3) Except for the period from 2001 to 2010, climate changes played a decisive role in vegetation restoration in the other three time periods (1982-1990, 1991-2000, 2011-2017), explaining 20%, 16% and 13% of vegetation restoration, respectively. Human activities dominated vegetation degradation areas, explaining 13%, 19% and 20% of vegetation degradation, respectively. The research results can provide scientific reference for the implementation of ecological environmental protection and management policies and green and sustainable development in Nei Mongol.

Key words: climate chang, human activity, gross primary productivity, residual analysis, Nei Mongol

杨宇萌, 来全, 刘心怡. 气候变化和人类活动对内蒙古植被总初级生产力的定量影响. 植物生态学报, 2024, 48(3): 306-316. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2023.0134

YANG Yu-Meng, LAI Quan, LIU Xin-Yi. Quantitative analysis of climate change and human activities on vegetation gross primary productivity in Nei Mongol, China. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2024, 48(3): 306-316. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2023.0134

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链接本文: https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/10.17521/cjpe.2023.0134

https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/Y2024/V48/I3/306

图/表 8

图1 内蒙古研究区植被类型空间分布图。

Fig. 1 Spatial distribution map of vegetation types in research area in Nei Mongol.

表1 评估气候变化和人类活动的相对作用率的方法(Wen et al., 2017; Liu et al., 2019b)

Table 1 Methods for assessing the relative rates of contribution of climate change and human activities (Wen et al., 2017; Liu et al., 2019b)

方法(比较斜率值) Method (compare slope value)	预测和残差 Predictions and residuals		相对作用率 Relative action rate (%)		解释 Description
方法(比较斜率值) Method (compare slope value)	S(GPP_a)	S(GPP_h)	气候变化 Climate change	人类活动 Human activities	解释 Description
S(GPP_a) > 0	>0	<0	100	0	气候变化导致GPP增加 Climate changes increase GPP
	<0	>0	0	100	人类活动导致GPP增加 Human activities increase GPP
	>0	>0	$\frac{S\left(\mathrm{GPP}_{\mathrm{p}}\right)}{S\left(\mathrm{GPP}_{\mathrm{a}}\right)} \times 100 \%$	$\frac{S\left(\mathrm{GPP}_{\mathrm{h}}\right)}{S\left(\mathrm{GPP}_{\mathrm{a}}\right)} \times 100 \%$	气候变化和人类活动共同导致GPP增加 Climate changes and human activities increase GPP
S(GPP_a) = 0	0	0	0	0	GPP不发生变化 GPP unchanged
S(GPP_a) < 0	<0	>0	100	0	气候变化导致GPP减少 Climate changes reduce GPP
	>0	<0	0	100	人类活动导致GPP减少 Human activities reduce GPP
	<0	<0	$\frac{S\left(\mathrm{GPP}_{\mathrm{p}}\right)}{S\left(\mathrm{GPP}_{\mathrm{a}}\right)} \times 100 \%$	$\frac{S\left(\mathrm{GPP}_{\mathrm{h}}\right)}{S\left(\mathrm{GPP}_{\mathrm{a}}\right)} \times 100 \%$	气候变化和人类活动共同导致GPP减少 Climate changes and human activities reduce GPP

图2 1982-2017年内蒙古研究区植被总初级生产力(GPP)年际变化(A)及与GPP最相关气候要素的空间分布(B)。

Fig. 2 Interannual variation of vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) (A) and spatial distribution of most correlating climatic factors of GPP (B) in research area in Nei Mongol from 1982 to 2017.

图3 1982-2017年内蒙古研究区不同植被类型总初级生产力(GPP)年际变化(A)及不同时间段的植被GPP变化趋势(B-F)。a, 森林; b, 草甸草原; c, 典型草原; d, 荒漠草原; e, 农田。NT, 负趋势; PT, 正趋势。

Fig. 3 Interannual variation of vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) of different vegetation types (A) and change trend of vegetation GPP in different periods (B-F) in research area in Nei Mongol from 1982 to 2017. a, forest; b, meadow steppe; c, typical steppe; d, desert steppe; e, cropland. NT, negative trend; PT, positive trend.

图4 1982-2017年气候变化和人类活动对内蒙古研究区植被总初级生产力(GPP)变化的相对贡献。a, 森林; b, 草甸草原; c, 典型草原; d, 荒漠草原; e, 农田。

Fig. 4 Relative contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) changes in research area in Nei Mongol from 1982 to 2017. a, forest; b, meadow steppe; c, typical steppe; d, desert steppe; e, cropland.

图5 鄂尔多斯毛乌素沙地3个样点的影像对比图。

Fig. 5 Comparison of images of three sampling points in Mau Us Sandy Land, Ordos.

表2 人类活动在鄂尔多斯市对植被总初级生产力(GPP)所产生的正负效应所占总面积比例

Table 2 Positive and negative effects of human activities on vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) in Ordos City as a proportion of the total area

时间 Year	正效应 Positive effect (%)	负效应 Negative effect (%)
1982-1990	2.61	41.61
1991-2000	4.44	16.17
2001-2010	37.02	10.82

图6 2000-2017年锡林郭勒盟牲畜数量。

Fig. 6 Number of livestock in Xilin Gol League from 2000 to 2017.

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