2001-2020年天山新疆段草地植被覆盖度时空变化及驱动因素分析

doi:10.17521/cjpe.2023.0155

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

草地在天山生态系统中起着重要作用, 与区域畜牧业发展息息相关。为阐明天山新疆段草地植被时空演变格局及其影响因素, 该研究基于2001-2020年MODIS NDVI遥感影像, 使用Sen+Mann-Kendall趋势分析法和变异系数、土地利用动态, 对天山新疆段草地植被覆盖度(FVC)的时空动态特征进行分析, 并通过地理探测器和相关性分析法探究草地FVC变化的驱动因素, 结果表明: (1) FVC整体变化较稳定, 多年平均草地FVC在0.33-0.42之间波动, FVC面积显著增加的区域分布在天山东北部和西南部低海拔地区, 占总面积的3.14%, FVC面积显著减少的区域主要分布在伊犁河沟, 占总面积的15.81%。(2)草地FVC的变化主要受植被类型和畜牧业总产值的影响, 其影响力均在29.85%以上。其中, 年降水量和年平均气温与植被类型相互作用后, 影响力均提升到48.70%以上。(3)研究时段内, 草地FVC与年降水量、年平均气温均呈正相关关系, 与年降水量正相关区域面积占总面积的80.84%, 主要分布在天山南北两侧的盆地周围; 与年平均气温正相关区域面积占总面积的71.69%, 主要分布在海拔较高的山区。

关键词: 植被覆盖度, 气候变化, 草地, 时空变化, 天山新疆段

Abstract:

Aims This study primarily aims to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of fractional vegetation cover (FVC) in the grasslands of Xinjiang section of Tianshan Mountains over the period 2001 to 2020. It seeks to elucidate the determinants of these patterns, emphasizing the influence of vegetation types, livestock farming practices, precipitation levels, and mean annual air temperature. Ultimately, the goal is to contribute important insights that will inform decisions concerning the sustainable management and ecological conservation of these grasslands.

Methods The investigation into the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of vegetation in Xinjiang section of Tianshan Mountains and the factors influencing these patterns leveraged MODIS NDVI remote sensing data spanning two decades. A suite of analytical techniques, including Senʼs Slope Estimator + Mann-Kendall trend analysis, coefficients of variation, and land-use dynamics assessments, were employed to analyze the spatiotemporal variations in grassland FVC.

Important findings The study revealed a general stability in FVC, with the multi-year average varying between 0.33 and 0.42. Notable FVC increases were observed in the northeastern and southwestern low-altitude areas of the range, comprising 3.14% of the analysis area. In contrast, significant FVC declines were predominantly in the Ili River Basin, representing 15.81% of the area studied. The dynamics of grassland FVC were primarily driven by vegetation types and the total value of livestock farming output, each influencing over 29.85% of the variation. When considering the interaction with precipitation and mean annual air temperature, the influence of these factors on FVC increased to above 48.70%. Furthermore, a positive association between FVC and both annual precipitation and average annual temperature was noted, with areas displaying a correlation to precipitation covering 80.84% of the total area, largely encircling the basins flanking Tianshan Mountains range. Meanwhile, a correlation with mean annual air temperature spanned 71.69% of the area, predominantly at higher elevations. These findings offer valuable reference data to support strategic planning for the sustainable use and protection of grassland ecosystems in the Tianshan Mountainous region.

Key words: fractional vegetation cover, climate change, grassland, spatial and temporal variation, Xinjiang section of Tianshan Mountains

陈以恒, 玉素甫江•如素力, 阿卜杜热合曼•吾斯曼. 2001-2020年天山新疆段草地植被覆盖度时空变化及驱动因素分析. 植物生态学报, 2024, 48(5): 561-576. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2023.0155

CHEN Yi-Heng, Yusufujiang RUSULI, Abdureheman WUSIMAN. Analysis of spatial and temporal variation in grassland vegetation cover in Xinjiang section of Tianshan Mountains and the driving factors from 2001 to 2020. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2024, 48(5): 561-576. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2023.0155

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链接本文: https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/10.17521/cjpe.2023.0155

https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/Y2024/V48/I5/561

图/表 15

图1 天山新疆段年平均草地植被覆盖度(FVC) (A), 博斯腾湖区无人机遥感影像(B)及天山北坡中段诸河流域实验点无人机遥感影像(C)。ENT, 天山北坡东段诸河流域; MNT, 天山北坡中段诸河流域。

Fig. 1 Average annual grassland fractional vegetation cover (FVC) in Xinjiang section of Tianshan Mountains (A), unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) remote sensing image of Bosten Lake area (B), and UAV remote sensing image of river basins in the middle section of the northen slope of Tianshan Mountains side (C). ENT, river basins in the eastern section of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains; MNT, river basins in the middle section of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains.

表1 影响草地植被覆盖度的自然因素和人为因素

Table 1 Natural and anthropogenic factors affecting grassland vegetation cover

类别 Category			空间分辨率 Spatial resolution	数据来源 Data sources
自然因素 Natural factor	X1	高程 Digital elevation model	30 m	https://www.gscloud.cn/
	X2	坡度 Slope	30 m	https://www.gscloud.cn/
	X3	坡向 Aspect	30 m	https://www.gscloud.cn/
	X4	地形 Topography	1 km	https://www.resdc.cn/
	X5	年降水量 Mean annual precipitation	1 km	http://www.geodata.cn/
	X6	年平均气温 Mean annual air temperature	1 km	http://www.geodata.cn/
	X7	土壤类型 Soil type	1 km	https://www.resdc.cn/
	X8	植被类型 Vegetation type	1 km	https://Ipdaac.usgs.gov/
	X9	土地利用 Land use and land cover change	30 m	http://www.geodata.cn/
人为因素 Human factor	X10	畜牧业生产总值 Gross livestock production	1 km	http://www.gisrs.cn/
	X11	家畜存栏数 Livestock stock	1 km	https://www.fao.org/
	X12	人口密度 Population density	1 km	https://landscan.ornl.gov/

表2 交互作用探测中的因子关系

Table 2 Factor relationships in interaction detection

判断准则 Judgement criteria	交互作用类型 Type of interaction
P(Xi∩Xj) < min[P(Xi), P(Xj)]	非线性减弱 Nonlinear weakening
min[P(Xi), P(Xj)] < P(Xi∩Xj) < max[P(Xi), P(Xj)]	线性减弱 linear weakening
P(Xi∩Xj) > max[P(Xi), P(Xj)]	线性增强 linear enhancement
P(Xi∩Xj) > P(Xi) + P(Xj)	独立 Independent
P(Xi∩Xj) = P(Xi) + P(Xj)	非线性增强 Nonlinear enhancement

图2 精度反演模型验证。

Fig. 2 Accuracy inversion model validation diagram. FVC, fractional vegetation cover.

表3 2001-2020年天山新疆段草地植被覆盖度(FVC)面积统计

Table 3 Area statistics of grassland fractional vegetation cover (FVC) from 2001 to 2020 in Xinjiang section of Tianshan Mountains

覆盖度等级 FVC class	面积 Area (×10⁴ km²)					百分比 Percentage (%)					土地利用动态度 LUCC dynamic (K, %)
覆盖度等级 FVC class	2001	2005	2010	2015	2020	2001	2005	2010	2015	2020	2001-2020
极低 Lowest	8.16	6.44	5.66	5.91	6.03	31.99	25.25	22.20	23.19	23.63	-1.31
较低 Lower	8.47	8.78	8.13	7.79	7.43	33.22	34.44	31.88	30.56	29.11	-0.61
中等 Medium	5.40	6.44	6.91	7.10	6.79	21.18	25.27	27.11	27.85	26.63	1.28
较高 Higher	3.11	3.44	4.45	4.51	5.09	12.20	13.50	17.48	17.67	19.95	3.17
极高 Highest	0.35	0.39	0.33	0.18	0.16	1.41	1.54	1.33	0.73	0.64	-2.69

图3 天山新疆段草地植被覆盖度时空变化(A)和变化趋势显著性(B)。ENT, 天山北坡东段诸河流域; MNT, 天山北坡中段诸河流域。

Fig. 3 Spatial and temporal variation (A) and trend significance (B) of grassland fractional vegetation cover (FVC) in Xinjiang section of Tianshan Mountains. ENT, river basins in the eastern section of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains; MNT, river basins in the middle section of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains.

图4 2001-2020年天山新疆段草地不同等级覆盖度(FVC)逐年变化趋势。

Fig. 4 Yearly trend of grassland fractional vegetation cover (FVC) of different classes in Xinjiang section of Tianshan Mountains from 2001 to 2020.

表4 天山新疆段草地植被覆盖度变异系数分级

Table 4 Grassland fractional vegetation cover (FVC) variation coefficient classification in Xinjiang section of Tianshan Mountains

变异程度 Variation	面积 Area (×10⁴ km²)				百分比 Percentage (%)
变异程度 Variation	2001-2005	2006-2010	2011-2015	2016-2020	2001-2005	2006-2010	2011-2015	2016-2020
极不显著 Highly insignificant	4.47	5.29	5.18	5.07	27.36	32.40	31.71	31.09
不显著 Insignificant	5.47	5.39	5.58	4.58	33.53	33.00	34.20	28.08
适中 Intermediate	3.40	2.97	3.25	3.02	20.81	18.22	19.89	18.53
显著 Significant	1.44	1.32	1.25	1.63	8.84	8.10	7.64	9.97
极显著 Highly significant	1.54	1.35	1.07	2.01	9.46	8.29	6.56	12.33

图5 2001-2020年天山新疆段草地植被覆盖度变异系数各等级时空分布。ENT, 天山北坡东段诸河流域; MNT, 天山北坡中段诸河流域。

Fig. 5 Spatial and temporal distribution of degrades of coefficients of variation of grassland fractional vegetation cover (FVC) in Xinjiang section of the Tianshan Mountains from 2001 to 2020. ENT, river basins in the eastern section of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains; MNT, river basins in the middle section of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains.

图6 天山新疆段草地植被覆盖度空间分异驱动因素最优离散化。equal, 相等间隔; geometric, 几何间隔; natural, 自然间断点分级法; quantile, 分位数。

Fig. 6 Optimal discretization of the drivers of spatial variation in grassland fractional vegetation cover in Xinjiang section of the Tianshan Mountains.

图7 天山新疆段草地植被覆盖度空间分异因子探测。

Fig. 7 Detection of spatial differentiation factors of fractional vegetation cover of grasslands in Xinjiang section of Tianshan Mountains.

图8 天山新疆段草地植被覆盖度空间分异驱动因子交互探测。X1-X10, 驱动因子名称, 具体见表1。圆圈尺寸表示交互力大小, 圈中的数字表示交互力的影响力(q值)。

Fig. 8 Detection of spatial variation drivers of grassland fractional vegetation cover in the middle part of Xinjiang section of Tianshan Mountains. X1-X10, names of driving factors, see Table 1 for details. Circle size indicates interaction force magnitude, and the number in the circle indicates the impact value (q) of the interaction force.

图9 2001-2020年天山新疆段草地植被覆盖度与年平均气温(A)和年降水量(B)逐年变化。

Fig. 9 Annual variation of fractional vegetation cover (FVC) and mean annual air temperature (A) and mean annual precipitation (B) in Xinjiang section of Tianshan Mountains grasslands from 2001 to 2020.

图10 2001-2020年天山新疆段年平均气温、年降水量多年均值(A、C)及气温和降水变化率(B、D)。ENT, 天山北坡东段诸河流域; MNT, 天山北坡中段诸河流域。

Fig. 10 Multi-year averages of mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation (A, C) and rates of change of temperature and precipitation (B, D) in Xinjiang section of Tianshan Mountains from 2001 to 2020. ENT, river basins in the eastern section of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains; MNT, river basins in the middle section of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains.

图11 2001-2020年天山新疆段草地植被覆盖度与同期年平均气温(A)、年降水量(B)的相关性。ENT, 天山北坡东段诸河流域; MNT, 天山北坡中段诸河流域。

Fig. 11 Correlation of fractional vegetation cover (FVC) with temperature (A) and precipitation (B) in the same period in Xinjiang section of the Tianshan Mountains grasslands from 2001 to 2020. ENT, river basins in the eastern section of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains; MNT, river basins in the middle section of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains.

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