基于遥感的草原退化人为因素影响趋势分析

doi:10.17521/cjpe.2006.0036

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

干旱、半干旱地区草原退化是我国重要的生态和经济问题,其通常是自然与人为因素综合影响的结果。而区分这两者的影响,无疑对草原退化的恢复重建工作具有重要的意义。该文在基于前人的工作基础上,发展了一种分时段的回归分析和残差分析相结合的方法来评价人为因素在草地退化区域中的影响趋势。具体而言,以内蒙古自治区锡林郭勒草原为例,利用1983~1999年8 km空间分辨率的逐旬NOAA/AVHRR NDVI数据及同期气象数据为基础数据源,对每个像元建立1983~1988年的气候因子(考虑温度、降水,及其时滞效应)与NDVI的回归关系模型,并逐年分析1989~1999年回归关系模型的预测NDVI值与实际NDVI的残差及变化趋势,从而判断以1983~1988年为基准各像元受人为因素影响的趋势。结果表明,除东乌珠穆沁旗以外,锡林郭勒草原的各旗(市)20世纪90年代都出现了较为严重的人类活动影响加剧的草原退化,但退化的严重程度不一,呈现出东部和中部较轻、西部较重的空间格局,整个研究区域已达到中等退化程度。该结果与锡林郭勒草原退化的现状基本相吻合。

关键词: 草原退化, 人为因素, 锡林郭勒, NOAA/AVHRR, NDVI, 降水, 温度, 回归分析, 残差

Abstract:

Grassland degradation in arid and semi_arid steppe results from the integrated impacts of nature and human factors and is one of the most important ecological and economic issues in China. It is necessary to discriminate between natural and human_induced degradation for purposes of rehabilitation and restoration of degraded steppe regions. Based on existing research, we proposed a method that integrated regression analysis and residual analysis to discriminate between areas degraded by human activities and those caused naturally. We applied this method to the Xilin Gole Steppe in Inner Mongolia, China as a case study using Pathfinder NOAA/AVHRR NDVI data from 1983 to 1999 and meteorological data within the same time period. Firstly, we constructed a regression model using the first 6 years (1983_1988) of data for each pixel between annual maximal NDVI and meteorological data (precipitation and temperature) including a time lag for precipitation. Secondly, the difference or residuals between actual and predicted maximal NDVI were derived for the latter 11 years (1989-1999). The analysis of the trends in the residuals of the first data set over time indicated that pixels with negative trends were human_induced degradation. The results showed that the Xilin Gole Steppe experienced a heavier degree of human_induced degradation from 1989 to 1999 with larger areas being impacted. The results are in accord with the status quo of the study area.

Key words: Steppe degradation, Human_induced, Xilin Gole, NOAA/AVHRR NDVI, Precipitation, Temperature, Regress analysis, Residual

曹鑫, 辜智慧, 陈晋, 刘晋, 史培军. 基于遥感的草原退化人为因素影响趋势分析. 植物生态学报, 2006, 30(2): 268-277. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2006.0036

CAO Xin, GU Zhi_Hui, CHEN Jin, LIU Jin, SHI Pei_Jun. ANALYSIS OF HUMAN_INDUCED STEPPE DEGRADATION BASED ON REMOTE SENSING IN XILIN GOLE, INNER MONGOLIA, CHINA. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2006, 30(2): 268-277. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2006.0036

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链接本文: https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/10.17521/cjpe.2006.0036

https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/Y2006/V30/I2/268

图/表 9

图1 研究区域和气象站点的分布 1. 锡林浩特市 Xilinhote 2. 二连浩特市 Erenhot 3. 东乌珠穆沁旗 East Ujumchin Banner 4. 西乌珠穆沁旗 West Ujumchin Banner 5. 阿巴嘎旗 Abarger Banner 6. 苏尼特左旗 East Sonid Banner 7. 苏尼特右旗 West Sonid Banner

Fig.1 Study area and location of meteorological stations

图2 31个气象站点的平均降水量和平均温度

Fig.2 Change of mean precipitation and temperature for 31 meteorological stations during 1983-1999

图3 残差分析法示例 a为NDVI与ΣP的相关关系,b、c、d为NDVI残差年际变化趋势 a is linear regression betweenΣP and NDVI, and b, c and d are temporal trends of NDVI residuals

Fig.3 Residual analysis to discriminate human_induced steppe degradation

图4 1983~1988年气候因子与NDVI最大值的相关系数分布图

Fig.4 Distribution of correlation coefficients of regression analysis during 1983-1988

图5 1983~1988年残差趋势分布图

Fig.5 Residual trend during 1983-1988

图6 1989~1999年残差趋势分布及人为因素导致的草原退化区域

Fig.6 Residual trend during 1989-1999 and human_induced steppe degradation

表1 内蒙古锡林郭勒草原各旗(市)人为因素导致的退化面积比例

Table 1 Human_induced steppe degradation areas of different degradation classes for each county

	极严重 Extremely degradation <-0.015	严重 Severely degradation -0.015~-0.010	中等 Moderately degradation -0.010~-0.005	轻微 Slight degradation -0.005~0	总退化比例 Percent of degradation (%)	平均残差趋势 Mean trend of residual error (平均斜率) (Mean slope coefficient)
锡林浩特 Xilinhote	3.30%	5.66%	13.21%	18.40%	40.57%	-0.003 9
阿巴嘎旗 Abarger Banner	13.77%	14.03%	16.88%	14.55%	59.22%	-0.011 9
东乌珠穆沁旗 East Ujumchin Banner	3.03%	3.94%	6.21%	13.94%	27.12%	0.001 8
西乌珠穆沁旗 West Ujumchin Banner	1.80%	5.39%	19.76%	33.23%	60.18%	-0.008 6
苏尼特左旗 East Sonid Banner	8.40%	12.40%	22.00%	19.20%	62.00%	-0.013 3
苏尼特右旗 West Sonid Banner	1.44%	11.78%	17.53%	27.59%	58.33%	-0.007 2

图7 锡林郭勒草原各旗(市)年牲畜总头数(1983~1999)

Fig.7 Annual total livestock in each county of Xilin Gole Steppe (1983-1999)

表2 锡林郭勒草原各旗(市)载畜量统计表

Table 2 Statistics of livestock of each county in Xilin Gole Steppe

	1983~1988 年均增长率 Mean rate of increase during 1983-1988	1989~1999 年均增长率 Mean rate of increase during 1989-1999	1990s与1980s 增长率之差 Difference of increase rate between 1990s and 1980s	1999年单位面积载畜量 (羊单位·km^-2) Stocking density in 1999 (sheep·km^-2)
锡林浩特Xilinhote	4.9%	6.8%	1.9%	121.5
阿巴嘎旗Abarger Banner	1.1%	7.4%	6.3%	121.7
东乌珠穆沁旗East Ujumchin Banner	1.3%	5.9%	4.6%	89.4
西乌珠穆沁旗West Ujumchin Banner	3.2%	5.8%	2.6%	181.8
苏尼特左旗East Sonid Banner	0.7%	6.3%	5.7%	79.5
苏尼特右旗West Sonid Banner	1.8%	4.5%	2.7%	72.8

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