基于物种分布模型评价土壤因子对我国毛竹潜在分布的影响

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1258.2013.00065

植物生态学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (7): 631-640.DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1258.2013.00065 cstr: 32100.14.SP.J.1258.2013.00065

基于物种分布模型评价土壤因子对我国毛竹潜在分布的影响

金佳鑫¹,江洪^1,^2,^*(),彭威¹,张林静¹,卢学鹤¹,徐建辉^1,³,张秀英¹,王颖¹

¹南京大学国际地球系统科学研究所, 南京 210093
²浙江农林大学国际空间生态与生态系统生态研究中心, 杭州 311300
³滁州学院, 安徽滁州 239000

收稿日期:2013-03-05 接受日期:2013-05-10 出版日期:2013-03-05 发布日期:2013-07-05
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(61190114);国家自然科学基金(41171-324);国家“973”重点基础研究发展规划项目(2011-CB302705);国家“973”重点基础研究发展规划项目(2010CB950702);国家“973”重点基础研究发展规划项目(2010CB428503);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20110091110028);国家高技术研究发展计划项目(2009AA122001);国家高技术研究发展计划项目(2009AA122005);科技部重大基础性项目(2007FY-110300-04);科技部重大基础性项目(2007FY110300-08);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目;浙江省重点科技创新团队(2010R50030)

Evaluating the impact of soil factors on the potential distribution of Phyllostachys edulis (bamboo) in China based on the species distribution model

JIN Jia-Xin¹,JIANG Hong^1,^2,^*(),PENG Wei¹,ZHANG Lin-Jing¹,LU Xue-He¹,XU Jian-Hui^1,³,ZHANG Xiu-Ying¹,WANG Ying¹

¹International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
²International Center of Spatial Ecology and Ecosystem Ecology, Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University, Hangzhou 311300, China
³Chuzhou University, Chuzhou, Anhui 239000, China

Received:2013-03-05 Accepted:2013-05-10 Online:2013-03-05 Published:2013-07-05

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于单类别支持向量机方法的物种分布模型, 利用政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)气候情景模式和联合国粮食与农业组织(FAO)的全球土壤数据, 模拟1981-2099年我国毛竹(Phyllostachys edulis)的潜在空间分布及变化趋势, 比较考虑土壤因子前后模拟结果的差异, 旨在探究土壤因子对毛竹潜在空间分布模拟结果的影响。结果表明, 仅以气候因子为模拟变量和同时考虑气候与土壤因子为模拟变量的毛竹潜在空间分布模拟均具有较高精度, 毛竹潜在分布区表现为面积增加并向北扩张。模拟因子重要性分析表明表征温暖程度的气候因子在毛竹潜在分布模拟中起主导作用, 而表征土壤质地和酸碱性的土壤因子以限制性作用为主。同时考虑气候与土壤因子的模拟结果具有较高的模拟效率, 且在未来气候变化情景模式下毛竹潜在分布区面积增幅与向北迁移幅度均小于仅使用气候因子的模拟, 表明土壤要素对毛竹潜在分布具有明显的限制作用, 该结果对现在的毛竹潜在分布模拟研究具有重要的补充作用。

关键词: 气候变化, 毛竹, 潜在分布, 土壤, 物种分布模型

Abstract:

Aims We aimed to detect the impact of soil factors on predicting the potential distribution of Phyllostachys edulis (bamboo) by comparing the prediction accuracy and the spatio-temporal pattern of potential habitat of P. edulis.
Methods Using IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) climate change scenario datasets and FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) Soil Map of the World, the potential distribution of P. edulis in China was predicted from 1981 to 2099 based on species distribution models, one-class Support Vector Machine (SVM). We used two groups of predictors: one included climate factors only, and the other had both climate factors and soil factors.
Important findings The SVM based on both predictor groups predicted the potential distribution of P. edulis, and the potential habitat expended and migrated northward with time. Factor importance analysis showed that the climate factors correlated with warm conditions played a driving role in the simulation of the potential habitat of P. edulis, while soil factors associated with soil texture and pH mainly impacted the simulation as limiting factors. However, the prediction using both climate and soil predictors performed with higher efficiency, and the intensity of the potential habitat expending and migrating was less than that of the group of climate factors only. The finding suggested that the soil factors significantly constrain the potential habitat of P. edulis, and soil constraint should be considered in predicting species distribution in future.

Key words: climate change, Phyllostachys edulis, potential distribution, soil, species distribution model

金佳鑫,江洪,彭威,张林静,卢学鹤,徐建辉,张秀英,王颖. 基于物种分布模型评价土壤因子对我国毛竹潜在分布的影响. 植物生态学报, 2013, 37(7): 631-640. DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1258.2013.00065

JIN Jia-Xin,JIANG Hong,PENG Wei,ZHANG Lin-Jing,LU Xue-He,XU Jian-Hui,ZHANG Xiu-Ying,WANG Ying. Evaluating the impact of soil factors on the potential distribution of Phyllostachys edulis (bamboo) in China based on the species distribution model. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2013, 37(7): 631-640. DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1258.2013.00065

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链接本文: https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/10.3724/SP.J.1258.2013.00065

https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/Y2013/V37/I7/631

图/表 5

表1 1981-2000年毛竹潜在分布的模拟结果评价

Table 1 Simulation assessments of potential distribution of Phyllostachys edulis during 1981-2000

	无土壤限制 Without soil constrain	有土壤限制 With soil constrain
模拟栅格数 Grid number of simulation	27 358	25 918
真阳性率 True positive rate	0.994 8	0.988 6
受试者工作特征曲线下面积 Area under receiver operating characteristic curve	0.916 8	0.925 1

图1 因子重要性分析。

Fig. 1 Factor importance analysis.

图2 未来气候情景模式A2下1981-2099年我国毛竹潜在分布年际变化。

Fig. 2 Inter-annual variations of potential distribution of Phyllostachys edulis in China from 1981 to 2099 under the future climate change scenario A2.

图3 未来气候情景模式A2下1981-2099年我国毛竹潜在分布随纬度的变化。

Fig. 3 Latitudinal variations in potential distribution of Phyllostachys edulis in China from 1981 to 2099 under the future climate change scenario A2.

图4 未来气候情景模式A2下1981-2099年我国毛竹潜在分布变化。

Fig. 4 Variation of potential distribution of Phyllostachys edulis in China from 1981 to 2099 under the future climate change scenario A2.

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基于物种分布模型评价土壤因子对我国毛竹潜在分布的影响

Evaluating the impact of soil factors on the potential distribution of Phyllostachys edulis (bamboo) in China based on the species distribution model

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