Effects of climatic factors and their time-lag on grassland NDVI in Asian drylands

doi:10.17521/cjpe.2022.0474

Abstract

Abstract:

Aims Along with intensified climatic warming and human activities, global arid areas have expanded in an unprecedented rate during the past decades. Dryland ecosystems have witnessed increased vulnerability and sensitivity to climate change. Exploring the time lag effect of climate change on dryland vegetation growth is becoming an important research highlight in current global change related studies.

Methods In this study, we synthesized the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from Moderate- resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the monthly gridded CRU TS4.05 (Climatic Research Unit Time-Series version 4.05) climate and drought information developed by the University of East Anglia, solar radiation information from ERA5 (ECMWF’s Fifth Generation Atmospheric Reanalysis of the Global Climate) and soil moisture information from the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative program (CCI). These data were designed to investigate the effects of climatic factors and their time-lag on grassland NDVI in Asian grasslands from 2001 to 2020. This analysis was conducted based on the window cross-correlation and one-dimensional linear regression.

Important findings Our study revealed that: 1) The grassland NDVI responded strongly to average temperature and total precipitation when there was no lag, but expressed a lag response to solar radiation and soil moisture (1-month). 2) The spatial distributions of the lag response of grassland NDVI to climate change were nonuniform, with significant differences observed between the western and eastern Asian grasslands. 3) We did not detect any apparent time-lag effects on interactions between grassland NDVI and self-calibrating Palmer Drought Index. 4) We argue that altitude could partly modulate the response of grassland NDVI to climatic variables in the grassland of Asian drylands.

Key words: grassland, influencing determinant, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), lag effect, Asian drylands

MIAO Li-Juan, ZHANG Yu-Yang, CHUAI Xiao-Wei, BAO Gang, HE Yu, ZHU Jing-Wen. Effects of climatic factors and their time-lag on grassland NDVI in Asian drylands[J]. Chin J Plant Ecol, 2023, 47(10): 1375-1385.

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URL: https://www.plant-ecology.com/EN/10.17521/cjpe.2022.0474

https://www.plant-ecology.com/EN/Y2023/V47/I10/1375

Figures/Tables 7

Fig. 1 Geographical location of the research area for Asian dryland grasslands.

Fig. 2 Matrix of cross-correlation coefficients between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and its driving factors in Asian dryland grasslands at different time lags. The curves on the right side show the average correlation coefficients at different time lags. A positive time lag indicates that grassland NDVI lags behind the driving factors, while a negative lag time indicates that grassland NDVI overresponds to the driving factors. scPDSI, self-calibrating Palmer Drought Index.

Table 1 Optimal lag time and coefficient of determinations (R2) with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for Asian dryland grasslands

	0个月 0-month	1个月 1-month	2个月 2-months	3个月 3-months	4个月 4-months	5个月 5-months	6个月 6-months
NDVI-气温 NDVI-air temperature	0.711 1	0.638 9	0.302 6	0.030 5	-	-	-
NDVI-降水 NDVI-precipitation	0.718 0	0.662 4	0.261 1	0.008 6	-	-	-
NDVI-太阳辐射 NDVI-solar radiation	0.680 8	0.738 1	0.414 5	0.284 6	-	-	-
NDVI-土壤水分 NDVI-soil moisture	0.497 9	0.553 6	0.237 5	0.010 3	-	-	-
NDVI-干旱指数 NDVI-drought index	0.001 5	0.003 8	1.788 1 × ${{10}^{-7}}$	0.002 1	0.003 0	0.012 1	0.010 0

Fig. 3 Spatial distributions of correlation coefficients between normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and its driving factors for Asian grasslands at the best time lag by the window cross-correlation method. Blank areas indicate that the region is non-grassland. A, Correlation coefficient between NDVI and 0-month lag of air temperature. B, Correlation coefficient between NDVI and 0-month lag of precipitation. C, Correlation coefficient between NDVI and 1-month lag of solar radiation. D, Correlation coefficient between NDVI and 1-month lag of soil moisture. E, Correlation coefficient between NDVI and 5-months lag of drought index.

Fig. 4 Spatial distributions of determination coefficients (R2) between normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and its driving factors in Asian grasslands at the best time lag by the one-dimensional linear regression method. Blank areas on the map indicate non-grassland regions. A, Determination coefficient between NDVI and 0-month lag of air temperature. B, Determination coefficient between NDVI and 0-month lag of precipitation. C, Determination coefficient between NDVI and 1-month lag of solar radiation. D, Determination coefficient between NDVI and 1-month lag of soil moisture. E, Determination coefficient between NDVI and 5-months lag of drought index.

Fig. 5 Spatial distributions of time lag between normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and its driving factors in Asian grasslands. A, NDVI-air temperature. B, NDVI-precipitation. C, NDVI-solar radiation. D, NDVI-soil moisture. E, NDVI-drought index.

Fig. 6 Distributions of regional area shares of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and lag time of each influencing element with altitude in Asian dryland grasslands.

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