近30年北京自然历的主要物候期、物候季节变化及归因

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1258.2012.01217

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

根据中国物候观测网资料并结合气象观测数据, 重新编制了北京颐和园地区1981-2010年的自然历。通过与原自然历比较, 揭示了北京物候季节变化特征, 分析了1963年以来物候季节变化的可能原因。研究发现: 与原自然历相比, 1981-2010年北京的春、夏季开始时间分别提前了2天和5天, 秋、冬季开始时间分别推迟了1天和4天; 夏、秋季长度分别延长了6天和3天, 春、冬季长度则分别缩短了3天和6天; 各个物候期的平均日期、最早日期、最晚日期在春、夏季以提前为主, 在秋、冬季以推迟为主; 且春、秋、冬季节内部分物候期次序也出现了不同程度的变化。春、夏、冬季开始日期前的气温变化和秋季开始日期前的日照时数变化可能是北京颐和园地区物候季节变化的主要原因; 不同物种、不同物候期对气温变化的响应程度不同, 导致了物候季节内各种物候现象出现的先后顺序发生变化。

关键词: 北京, 气候变化, 自然历, 物候季节

Abstract:

Aims Our objective is to reveal changes of main phenophases of natural calendar and phenological seasons and the reasons for this change. Therefore, we recompiled the natural calendar for 1981-2010 at the Summer Palace in Beijing and compared it to the natural calendar for 1963-1982. Methods Based on the phenological data from Chinese Phenology Observation Network of Chinese Academy of Sciences and the meteorological data, we compiled a natural calendar (1981-2010) with phenophases of 19 plant speices, ice freeze-up and break-up dates for Kunming Lake. Correlation analysis and regression analysis were used to examine the relationships between change of phenological season and climatic drivers. Important findings In comparison with the original natural calendar, the first dates of phenological spring and summer were advanced by two days and five days, respectively, while the first dates of autumn and winter were delayed by one day and four days, respectively. The lengths of summer and autumn were prolonged by six days and three days, while the lengths of spring and winter were shortened by three days and six days, respectively. The order of spring, autumn, winter phenophases changed with different degrees. The average, earliest, latest date of phenology showed advances mainly in spring and summer and delay in autumn and winter. Temperature change before the first date of spring, summer, winter and the sunshine duration before the first date of autumn are probably the main reason for the changes of phenological season in Beijing Summer Palace. Different responses of different species and phenophase result in change of phenophase order in seasons.

Key words: Beijing, climate change, natural calendar, phenological season

仲舒颖, 葛全胜, 郑景云, 戴君虎, 王焕炯. 近30年北京自然历的主要物候期、物候季节变化及归因. 植物生态学报, 2012, 36(12): 1217-1225. DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1258.2012.01217

ZHONG Shu-Ying, GE Quan-Sheng, ZHENG Jing-Yun, DAI Jun-Hu, WANG Huan-Jiong. Changes of main phenophases of natural calendar and phenological seasons in Beijing for the last 30 years. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2012, 36(12): 1217-1225. DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1258.2012.01217

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链接本文: https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/10.3724/SP.J.1258.2012.01217

https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/Y2012/V36/I12/1217

图/表 5

参考文献 22

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季节 Season	季节开始日期物候指标 Phenological indicator of the first date of season	自然历 Natural calendar	开始日期(月-日) The first date (month-day)	结束日期(月-日) The end date (month-day)	季节长度 Season length (d)	TNC与ONC长度的差值¹⁾ Different days between length of TNC and length of ONC (d)¹⁾
春季 Spring	昆明湖全解冻 P1	ONC	3-8	5-8	62	-3
春季 Spring	昆明湖全解冻 P1	TNC	3-6	5-3	59	-3
夏季 Summer	刺槐盛花 P19	ONC	5-9	9-26	141	6
夏季 Summer	刺槐盛花 P19	TNC	5-4	9-27	147	6
秋季 Autumn	野菊始花 P27	ONC	9-27	10-26	30	3
秋季 Autumn	野菊始花 P27	TNC	9-28	10-30	33	3
冬季 Winter	色木槭叶全变色 P37	ONC	10-27	3-7	132	-6
冬季 Winter	色木槭叶全变色 P37	TNC	10-31	3-5	126	-6

季节 Season	季节开始日期物候指标 Phenological indicator of the first date of season	自然历 Natural calendar	开始日期(月-日) The first date (month-day)	结束日期(月-日) The end date (month-day)	季节长度 Season length (d)	TNC与ONC长度的差值¹⁾ Different days between length of TNC and length of ONC (d)¹⁾
春季 Spring	昆明湖全解冻 P1	ONC	3-8	5-8	62	-3
春季 Spring	昆明湖全解冻 P1	TNC	3-6	5-3	59	-3
夏季 Summer	刺槐盛花 P19	ONC	5-9	9-26	141	6
夏季 Summer	刺槐盛花 P19	TNC	5-4	9-27	147	6
秋季 Autumn	野菊始花 P27	ONC	9-27	10-26	30	3
秋季 Autumn	野菊始花 P27	TNC	9-28	10-30	33	3
冬季 Winter	色木槭叶全变色 P37	ONC	10-27	3-7	132	-6
冬季 Winter	色木槭叶全变色 P37	TNC	10-31	3-5	126	-6

次序 Order	物候期 Phenophase	观测年数 Year of observation	平均日期(月-日) Average date (month-day)	与原自然历平均日期的差异天数¹⁾ Difference in average date compared with original natural calendar¹⁾ (d)	最早日期(月-日) Earliest date (month-day)	与原自然历最早日期的差异天数¹⁾Difference in earliest date compared with original natural calendar¹⁾ (d)	最早物候期所在年份 Year with the earliest phenophase	最晚日期 (月-日) Latest date (month-day)	与原自然历最晚日期的差异天数¹⁾ Difference in latest date compared with original natural calendar¹⁾ (d)	最晚物候期所在年份 Year with the latest phenophase	变幅 Amplitude of vari- ation (d)	次序变化情况Change of order
1	昆明湖全解冻 P1	19	3-6	-2	2-19	-8	2007	3-24	9	1988	33	NC
2	山桃芽开放期 P2	25	3-7	-1	2-21	-4	1992	3-23	9	1984	30	NC
3	毛白杨始花 P3	27	3-15	-7	2-27	-15	2002	3-30	1	1985	31	C
4	杏芽开放期 P4	25	3-20	-1	3-7	-2	2002	4-4	5	1988, 1993	28	C
5	山桃始花 P5	27	3-21	-6	3-6	-14	2002	4-4	0	1984, 1985	29	NC
6	旱柳开始展叶 P6	26	3-27	-8	3-12	-8	2002	4-13	-13	1987	32	C
7	玉兰始花 P7	27	3-28	-7	3-3	-22	2003	4-11	-4	1984	39	NC
8	连翘始花 P8	19	3-28	-6	3-10	-20	2002	4-11	6	1984, 1987	32	C
9	旱柳始花 P9	27	4-1	-4	3-14	-14	2002	4-14	-6	1985, 1988	31	NC
10	杏树始花 P10	27	4-3	-3	3-17	-14	2002	4-13	-1	1985	27	NC
11	旱柳展叶盛期 P11	26	4-3	-11	3-14	-15	2002	4-19	-2	1991	27	C
12	紫丁香展叶盛期 P12	25	4-4	-11	3-17	-18	2002	4-16	-5	1987	36	C
13	紫丁香始花 P13	25	4-9	-5	3-27	-11	2002	4-19	-8	1996	30	C
14	色木槭始花 P14	26	4-11	-6	3-27	-14	2002	4-25	-1	2010	23	NC
15	枣树芽开放 P15	17	4-14	-9	3-16	-26	2002	4-28	-7	1985, 1988	29	NC
16	黄栌始花 P16	18	4-19	-8	3-30	-20	1984	5-2	-4	1987	43	NC
17	旱柳飞絮 P17	12	4-21	-9	4-14	-10	1995, 2002	5-4	-5	1987	33	NC
18	刺槐始花 P18	26	5-1	-5	4-21	-8	2004	5-16	0	1991	20	NC
19	刺槐盛花 P19	26	5-4	-5	4-23	-9	2010	5-18	-1	1984	25	NC
20	柿始花 P20	24	5-14	-2	5-6	-3	2002	5-23	-3	2010	25	NC
21	枣树始花 P21	17	5-25	-3	5-20	2	2004	6-7	2	1991	17	NC
22	栾树始花 P22	18	6-2	-2	5-26	2	2005, 2007	6-11	0	1984, 1985	18	NC
23	梧桐始花 P23	23	6-21	-3	6-9	-2	1993	7-4	-3	1988	16	NC
24	紫薇始花 P24	22	7-5	-8	6-3	-31	2003	7-21	0	1987	25	NC
25	荷花盛花 P25	18	7-14	-1	6-29	-12	2004	7-26	-15	1982	48	NC
26	荷花开花末期 P26	17	8-19	-1	7-23	-3	1985	8-30	-28	2010	27	NC
27	野菊始花 P27	18	9-28	1	9-22	9	2003	10-7	4	1991	38	NC
28	白蜡树叶始变色 P28	25	9-29	4	9-12	-6	1986	10-16	12	2010	15	NC
29	黄栌叶始变色 P29	17	10-12	1	9-25	-4	1987	10-30	-2	2010	33	C
30	枣叶始变色 P30	15	10-12	6	9-13	-10	1985	10-24	1	2010	35	NC
31	色木槭叶始变色 P31	24	10-15	11	10-2	19	2003	10-26	11	2007	40	C
32	柿叶始变色 P32	24	10-16	17	10-3	21	1986	11-3	23	2005	24	C
33	紫丁香叶始变色 P33	23	10-16	10	9-30	16	1987	11-1	10	2008	31	C
34	白蜡树叶全变色 P34	24	10-20	4	10-10	10	1997	11-1	5	2006	32	NC
35	旱柳叶始变色 P35	25	10-28	5	10-20	30	1983	11-18	13	1987	22	NC
36	黄栌叶全变色 P36	18	10-27	2	10-20	11	2009	11-5	-3	2006	29	NC
37	色木槭叶全变色 P37	23	10-31	4	10-22	12	1985	11-12	10	2009	16	NC
38	白蜡树叶全落 P38	23	11-3	1	10-26	6	1986	11-14	-1	2006	21	NC
39	梧桐叶全落 P39	23	11-9	0	10-30	0	1995, 1996	11-25	-1	1992	17	NC
40	野菊普遍黄枯 P40	5	11-12	0	11-4	1	1986	11-21	2	1988	19	C
41	昆明湖开始结冰 P41	6	11-13	-4	11-1	8	2009	11-20	-13	1984, 1987	26	C
42	色木槭叶全落 P42	23	11-14	5	11-3	7	1993	12-1	9	2009	19	C
43	杏叶全落 P43	24	11-16	1	11-7	0	1996	11-28	7	2006	28	C
44	毛白杨叶全落 P44	22	11-19	0	11-7	-1	1986	12-11	10	1992	21	NC
45	昆明湖完全封冻 P45	11	11-26	-6	11-3	-16	2009	12-15	-4	2004	34	C
46	旱柳叶全落 P46	22	12-1	1	11-21	-2	1983	12-10	1	2009	42	C
47	榆树芽开放 P47	12	2-26	-2	2-13	-5	2007	3-9	-4	1981	19	NC
48	毛白杨芽开放 P48	26	3-2	-5	2-10	-19	2007	3-29	17	1984	47	NC

次序 Order	物候期 Phenophase	观测年数 Year of observation	平均日期(月-日) Average date (month-day)	与原自然历平均日期的差异天数¹⁾ Difference in average date compared with original natural calendar¹⁾ (d)	最早日期(月-日) Earliest date (month-day)	与原自然历最早日期的差异天数¹⁾Difference in earliest date compared with original natural calendar¹⁾ (d)	最早物候期所在年份 Year with the earliest phenophase	最晚日期 (月-日) Latest date (month-day)	与原自然历最晚日期的差异天数¹⁾ Difference in latest date compared with original natural calendar¹⁾ (d)	最晚物候期所在年份 Year with the latest phenophase	变幅 Amplitude of vari- ation (d)	次序变化情况Change of order
1	昆明湖全解冻 P1	19	3-6	-2	2-19	-8	2007	3-24	9	1988	33	NC
2	山桃芽开放期 P2	25	3-7	-1	2-21	-4	1992	3-23	9	1984	30	NC
3	毛白杨始花 P3	27	3-15	-7	2-27	-15	2002	3-30	1	1985	31	C
4	杏芽开放期 P4	25	3-20	-1	3-7	-2	2002	4-4	5	1988, 1993	28	C
5	山桃始花 P5	27	3-21	-6	3-6	-14	2002	4-4	0	1984, 1985	29	NC
6	旱柳开始展叶 P6	26	3-27	-8	3-12	-8	2002	4-13	-13	1987	32	C
7	玉兰始花 P7	27	3-28	-7	3-3	-22	2003	4-11	-4	1984	39	NC
8	连翘始花 P8	19	3-28	-6	3-10	-20	2002	4-11	6	1984, 1987	32	C
9	旱柳始花 P9	27	4-1	-4	3-14	-14	2002	4-14	-6	1985, 1988	31	NC
10	杏树始花 P10	27	4-3	-3	3-17	-14	2002	4-13	-1	1985	27	NC
11	旱柳展叶盛期 P11	26	4-3	-11	3-14	-15	2002	4-19	-2	1991	27	C
12	紫丁香展叶盛期 P12	25	4-4	-11	3-17	-18	2002	4-16	-5	1987	36	C
13	紫丁香始花 P13	25	4-9	-5	3-27	-11	2002	4-19	-8	1996	30	C
14	色木槭始花 P14	26	4-11	-6	3-27	-14	2002	4-25	-1	2010	23	NC
15	枣树芽开放 P15	17	4-14	-9	3-16	-26	2002	4-28	-7	1985, 1988	29	NC
16	黄栌始花 P16	18	4-19	-8	3-30	-20	1984	5-2	-4	1987	43	NC
17	旱柳飞絮 P17	12	4-21	-9	4-14	-10	1995, 2002	5-4	-5	1987	33	NC
18	刺槐始花 P18	26	5-1	-5	4-21	-8	2004	5-16	0	1991	20	NC
19	刺槐盛花 P19	26	5-4	-5	4-23	-9	2010	5-18	-1	1984	25	NC
20	柿始花 P20	24	5-14	-2	5-6	-3	2002	5-23	-3	2010	25	NC
21	枣树始花 P21	17	5-25	-3	5-20	2	2004	6-7	2	1991	17	NC
22	栾树始花 P22	18	6-2	-2	5-26	2	2005, 2007	6-11	0	1984, 1985	18	NC
23	梧桐始花 P23	23	6-21	-3	6-9	-2	1993	7-4	-3	1988	16	NC
24	紫薇始花 P24	22	7-5	-8	6-3	-31	2003	7-21	0	1987	25	NC
25	荷花盛花 P25	18	7-14	-1	6-29	-12	2004	7-26	-15	1982	48	NC
26	荷花开花末期 P26	17	8-19	-1	7-23	-3	1985	8-30	-28	2010	27	NC
27	野菊始花 P27	18	9-28	1	9-22	9	2003	10-7	4	1991	38	NC
28	白蜡树叶始变色 P28	25	9-29	4	9-12	-6	1986	10-16	12	2010	15	NC
29	黄栌叶始变色 P29	17	10-12	1	9-25	-4	1987	10-30	-2	2010	33	C
30	枣叶始变色 P30	15	10-12	6	9-13	-10	1985	10-24	1	2010	35	NC
31	色木槭叶始变色 P31	24	10-15	11	10-2	19	2003	10-26	11	2007	40	C
32	柿叶始变色 P32	24	10-16	17	10-3	21	1986	11-3	23	2005	24	C
33	紫丁香叶始变色 P33	23	10-16	10	9-30	16	1987	11-1	10	2008	31	C
34	白蜡树叶全变色 P34	24	10-20	4	10-10	10	1997	11-1	5	2006	32	NC
35	旱柳叶始变色 P35	25	10-28	5	10-20	30	1983	11-18	13	1987	22	NC
36	黄栌叶全变色 P36	18	10-27	2	10-20	11	2009	11-5	-3	2006	29	NC
37	色木槭叶全变色 P37	23	10-31	4	10-22	12	1985	11-12	10	2009	16	NC
38	白蜡树叶全落 P38	23	11-3	1	10-26	6	1986	11-14	-1	2006	21	NC
39	梧桐叶全落 P39	23	11-9	0	10-30	0	1995, 1996	11-25	-1	1992	17	NC
40	野菊普遍黄枯 P40	5	11-12	0	11-4	1	1986	11-21	2	1988	19	C
41	昆明湖开始结冰 P41	6	11-13	-4	11-1	8	2009	11-20	-13	1984, 1987	26	C
42	色木槭叶全落 P42	23	11-14	5	11-3	7	1993	12-1	9	2009	19	C
43	杏叶全落 P43	24	11-16	1	11-7	0	1996	11-28	7	2006	28	C
44	毛白杨叶全落 P44	22	11-19	0	11-7	-1	1986	12-11	10	1992	21	NC
45	昆明湖完全封冻 P45	11	11-26	-6	11-3	-16	2009	12-15	-4	2004	34	C
46	旱柳叶全落 P46	22	12-1	1	11-21	-2	1983	12-10	1	2009	42	C
47	榆树芽开放 P47	12	2-26	-2	2-13	-5	2007	3-9	-4	1981	19	NC
48	毛白杨芽开放 P48	26	3-2	-5	2-10	-19	2007	3-29	17	1984	47	NC

季节 Season	各个季节开始日期物候指标 Phenological indicator of the first date of a season	前第1个月 The first preceding month	前第2个月 The second preceding month	前第3个月 The third preceding month
春季 Spring	昆明湖全解冻 P1	-0.745^**	-0.547^**	-0.294
夏季 Summer	刺槐盛花 P19	-0.834^**	-0.680^**	-0.381^**
秋季 Autumn	野菊始花 P27	-0.082	-0.103	-0.24
冬季 Winter	色木槭叶全变色 P37	0.612^**	0.464^**	0.405^**