生态阈值: 概念、方法与研究展望

doi:10.17521/cjpe.2015.0090

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

生态阈值概念是20世纪70年代提出的, 主要指生态系统的几个稳态之间突然改变的点或区域。在阐明生态系统结构与功能的关系、构建区域可持续发展范式以及服务于生态系统管理和生态红线的划定中, 生态阈值的检测和量化有着重要的理论和实践意义。该文首先梳理了前人关于生态阈值的概念、类型的一些提法, 从预警研究角度提出可以从两个层次理解生态阈值概念: 生态阈值点是系统从量变到质变的转折点, 类似于红色界限; 而生态阈值带可以理解为量变过程中不同稳态之间的转换区域, 类似于黄色与橙色预警边界带。黄色生态阈值表示生态系统可通过自身的调节能力重新达到稳定状态; 橙色生态阈值表示需要排除干扰因子使得生态系统重新达到平衡; 而红色生态阈值为关键阈值点, 超过此阈值, 生态系统将发生不可逆的退化甚至崩溃。该文还总结了目前确定生态阈值的主要方法, 主要是基于野外观测数据的统计分析与模型模拟方法。最后, 基于生态系统服务、生物多样性保护与生态系统管理等几个当今生态学热点研究领域, 简单总结归纳了生态阈值的研究现状, 并提出生态阈值未来的3个研究难点和方向: 1)开展针对生态阈值检测和量化的研究; 2)关注生态阈值的尺度效应并加强野外观测; 3)发挥生态阈值的预警作用, 指导“生态红线”的划定和生态系统管理。

关键词: 生态阈值, 稳态转换, 恢复力, 生态系统管理, 生态系统服务, 生态红线

Abstract:

The concept of ecological thresholds was raised in the 1970s. However, it was subsequently given different definitions and interpretations depending on research fields or disciplines. For most scientists, ecological thresholds refer to the points or zones that link abrupt changes between alternative stable states of an ecosystem. The measurement and quantification of ecological thresholds have great theoretical and practical significance in ecological research for clarifying the structure and function of ecosystems, for planning sustainable development modes, and for delimiting ecological red lines in managing the ecosystems of a region. By reviewing the existing concepts and classifications of ecological thresholds, we propose a new concept and definition at two different levels: the ecological threshold points, i.e. the turning points of quantitative changes to qualitative changes, which can be considered as ecological red lines; the ecological threshold zones, i.e. the regime shifts of the quantitative changes among different stable states, which can be considered as the yellow and/or orange warning boundaries of the gradual ecological changes. The yellow thresholds mean that an ecosystem can return to a stable state by its self-adjustment, the orange thresholds indicate that the ecosystem will stay in the equilibrium state after interference factors being removed, whereas the red thresholds, as the critical threshold points, indicate that the ecosystem will undergo irreversible degradation or even collapse beyond those points. We also summarizes two types of popular Methods in determining ecological thresholds: statistical analysis and modeling based on data of field observations. The applications of ecological thresholds in ecosystem service, biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management research are also reviewed. Future research on ecological thresholds should focus on the following aspects: (1) methodological development for measurement and quantification of ecological thresholds; (2) emphasizing the scaling effect of ecological thresholds and establishment of national-scale observation system and network; and (3) implementation of ecological thresholds as early warning tools in ecosystem management and delimiting ecological red lines.

Key words: ecological thresholds, regime shifts, resilience, ecological management, ecosystem service, ecological red line

唐海萍, 陈姣, 薛海丽. 生态阈值: 概念、方法与研究展望. 植物生态学报, 2015, 39(9): 932-940. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2015.0090

TANG Hai-Ping,CHEN Jiao,XUE Hai-Li. Ecological thresholds: Concept, Methods and research outlooks. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2015, 39(9): 932-940. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2015.0090

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链接本文: https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/10.17521/cjpe.2015.0090

https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/Y2015/V39/I9/932

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概念 Concept	文献 Reference
系统两个稳定状态之间的断点代表了生态系统阈值 The breakpoints between alternative stable states	May, 1977
阈值是两个不同的生态状态之间的时空边界; 牧区管理者没有实质干预的在实践时间尺度上不可逆的初始跨越边界 The boundaries in space and time between two different ecological states, initial shift across the boundary is not reversible on a practical time scale without substantial intervention by the range manager	Friedel, 1991
生态阈值是生态的不连续性, 暗示系统从一个稳态跃入另一个稳态时独立变量的关键值 The critical values of the independent variable around which the system flips from one stable state to another.	Muradian, 2001
阈值是环境条件的小变化产生(系统功能等)实质性改进的一些区域 The zones at which small changes in environmental conditions produce substantial improvements	Bestelmeyer et al., 2004
定义生态阈值为系统中当跨越两个可选状态时引起系统“快速移动”到一个不同的状态时的分歧点 A bifurcation point between alternate states which when passed causes a system to “flip” to a different state	Meyers & Walker, 2003
生态阈值代表了生态过程或参数发生突变的一个点, 此突变点响应于一个驱动力的相对较小的变化 The point at which an ecological process or parameter changes abruptly in response to relatively small changes in a driving force	Larsen & Alp, 2015

概念 Concept	文献 Reference
系统两个稳定状态之间的断点代表了生态系统阈值 The breakpoints between alternative stable states	May, 1977
阈值是两个不同的生态状态之间的时空边界; 牧区管理者没有实质干预的在实践时间尺度上不可逆的初始跨越边界 The boundaries in space and time between two different ecological states, initial shift across the boundary is not reversible on a practical time scale without substantial intervention by the range manager	Friedel, 1991
生态阈值是生态的不连续性, 暗示系统从一个稳态跃入另一个稳态时独立变量的关键值 The critical values of the independent variable around which the system flips from one stable state to another.	Muradian, 2001
阈值是环境条件的小变化产生(系统功能等)实质性改进的一些区域 The zones at which small changes in environmental conditions produce substantial improvements	Bestelmeyer et al., 2004
定义生态阈值为系统中当跨越两个可选状态时引起系统“快速移动”到一个不同的状态时的分歧点 A bifurcation point between alternate states which when passed causes a system to “flip” to a different state	Meyers & Walker, 2003
生态阈值代表了生态过程或参数发生突变的一个点, 此突变点响应于一个驱动力的相对较小的变化 The point at which an ecological process or parameter changes abruptly in response to relatively small changes in a driving force	Larsen & Alp, 2015

术语 Term	定义 Definition	文献 Reference
弹性或恢复力 Resilience	系统持久性的度量, 以及吸纳变化和干扰后维持同样的种群或状态变量之间关系的能力; A measure of the persistence of system and their ability to absorb change and disturbance and to still maintain the same relationship between populations or state variables	Holling, 1973
非线性变化 Non-linear responses	非线性变化是阈值的重要原理 Ecosystem reflects different types of nonlinearities	Rial et al., 2004
触发因子 Triggers	触发因子经常引起生态系统格局或空间结构发生初始变化 Triggers often initiate changes in the pattern or spatial structure of ecosystem	Bowker et al., 2014
稳态转换 Regime shift	生态系统稳态转换意味着生态系统服务的转变以及随后对人类社会的影响 Regime shifts imply shifts in ecosystem services and consequent impacts on human societies	Folke et al., 2004
临界点 Tipping points	(1)复杂系统的临界点可能隐含非必要崩溃的风险, 同时也是积极改变的机会 Tipping points in complex systems may imply risks of unwanted collapse, but also opportunities for positive change (2)指示阈值出现拐点或者迫在眉睫就要出现 Indicate that thresholds crossing has occurred or is imminent	Scheffer et al., 2012 Bowker et al., 2014
多稳态 alternative stable states (multiple stable states)	描述这种现象, 即系统能展示从一种稳态到另一种稳态发生的重大变化 describe the phenomenon whereby systems can exhibit a big change from one kind of regime to another	Walker & Meyers, 2004
断点 Breakpoint	多稳态之间的过渡点 transition point to alternative stable states	May, 1977
不连续性 Discontinuities	通过这些断点或不连续性识别生态阈值和描述多稳态之间的转换过程 Identifying ecological thresholds and describing processes of transition to alternative stable states once these breakpoints or discontinuities	Muradian, 2001

术语 Term	定义 Definition	文献 Reference
弹性或恢复力 Resilience	系统持久性的度量, 以及吸纳变化和干扰后维持同样的种群或状态变量之间关系的能力; A measure of the persistence of system and their ability to absorb change and disturbance and to still maintain the same relationship between populations or state variables	Holling, 1973
非线性变化 Non-linear responses	非线性变化是阈值的重要原理 Ecosystem reflects different types of nonlinearities	Rial et al., 2004
触发因子 Triggers	触发因子经常引起生态系统格局或空间结构发生初始变化 Triggers often initiate changes in the pattern or spatial structure of ecosystem	Bowker et al., 2014
稳态转换 Regime shift	生态系统稳态转换意味着生态系统服务的转变以及随后对人类社会的影响 Regime shifts imply shifts in ecosystem services and consequent impacts on human societies	Folke et al., 2004
临界点 Tipping points	(1)复杂系统的临界点可能隐含非必要崩溃的风险, 同时也是积极改变的机会 Tipping points in complex systems may imply risks of unwanted collapse, but also opportunities for positive change (2)指示阈值出现拐点或者迫在眉睫就要出现 Indicate that thresholds crossing has occurred or is imminent	Scheffer et al., 2012 Bowker et al., 2014
多稳态 alternative stable states (multiple stable states)	描述这种现象, 即系统能展示从一种稳态到另一种稳态发生的重大变化 describe the phenomenon whereby systems can exhibit a big change from one kind of regime to another	Walker & Meyers, 2004
断点 Breakpoint	多稳态之间的过渡点 transition point to alternative stable states	May, 1977
不连续性 Discontinuities	通过这些断点或不连续性识别生态阈值和描述多稳态之间的转换过程 Identifying ecological thresholds and describing processes of transition to alternative stable states once these breakpoints or discontinuities	Muradian, 2001