晋西黄土高原丘陵沟壑区清水河流域径流对土地利用与气候变化的响应

doi:10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2010.07.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

水资源短缺是黄土高原面临的最为关键的一个生态环境问题。研究黄土高原地区河川径流演变对土地利用与气候变化的响应是开展适应性流域管理的基础。该文以黄河流域中游山西省吉县境内的清水河流域(面积436 km²)为研究对象, 采用非参数统计秩检验法(Mann-Kendall)、滑动t检验和跃变参数分析法, 对该流域1959-2005年的年径流量、降水量和潜在蒸发散量进行了趋势分析和突变点验证; 用遥感数据判读和解译的结果分析了该流域不同时期土地利用变化; 在此基础上根据水量平衡原理, 分析了土地利用变化和气候变化对流域径流变化的贡献, 并采用FDC曲线法分析了二者对高、中、低流量变化的影响。研究结果表明: 该流域年径流量在1959-2005年的47年间呈显著下降趋势, 突变点出现在1980年, 但该流域降水量没有出现明显的趋势性变化, 而以Hamon公式计算的流域年潜在蒸发散则呈显著上升趋势, 其突变点出现在1997年。该流域气候变化和土地利用变化对年径流减少的贡献率分别为46.79%和53.21%。综合以上结果可以看出, 潜在蒸发散增加和乔木林地面积增加是导致该流域径流减少的重要原因。

关键词: 气候变化, 土地利用, 黄土高原丘陵沟壑区, 清水河流域, 径流量

Abstract:

Aims Shortage of water resources is a key ecological problem facing the Loess Plateau. Therefore, it is critically important to understand and predict the coupling effects of landuse and climate variability on streamflow characteristics for integrated watershed management and ecological restoration. We used the typical meso-scale Qingshui River watershed located in middle reach of the Yellow River to examine the trend of annual streamflow and separate the effects of landuse change on streamflow from that of climate variability.

Methods The trend of annual streamflow, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration and their inflection points were analyzed and examined using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test, Moving t-test technique and analysis of hopped parameter. Three phases of landuse for the watershed were obtained representing the original and dramatic landuse changes due to the watershed ecological restoration. Landuse in 1959 (original) was interpreted from the aerial photo image taken that year. Landuses in 1986 (Three Norths Shelterbelt Program) and 2007 (Three Norths and Land Conversion Program) were extracted and merged from four-season Landsat TM images by deploying Geomatica V8.2. The stream flow response to landuse and climatic variability was separated following the approach Milly and Dunne (2002) developed on the basis of water balance. In addition, the landuse and climate variability effects on the high, normal and low flow were examined by flow duration curve (FDC) analysis.

Important findings Streamflow decreased significantly during 1960 to 2005, with the inflection point in 1980. We estimated that streamflow reduction from 1980 to 2005 compared to 1960 to 1980 was attributable to landuse change (53.21%) and climate change (46.79%). Because precipitation had no significant trend and potential evapotranspiration significantly increased from 1960 to 2005, we concluded that the streamflow reduction was mainly due to the temperature-induced increase in potential evapotranspiration and evapotranspiration increase by increased forest landuse.

Key words: climate variation, land use, loess hilly-gully region, Qingshui River watershed, streamflow

唐丽霞, 张志强, 王新杰, 王盛萍, 查同刚. 晋西黄土高原丘陵沟壑区清水河流域径流对土地利用与气候变化的响应. 植物生态学报, 2010, 34(7): 800-810. DOI: 10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2010.07.005

TANG Li-Xia, ZHANG Zhi-Qiang, WANG Xin-Jie, WANG Sheng-Ping, ZHA Tong-Gang. Streamflow response to climate and landuse changes in Qingshui River watershed in the loess hilly-gully region of Western Shanxi Province, China. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2010, 34(7): 800-810. DOI: 10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2010.07.005

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链接本文: https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2010.07.005

https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/Y2010/V34/I7/800

图/表 9

图1 清水河流域的地理位置。

Fig. 1 Geographical position of Qingshui River watershed.

图2 年径流量、潜在蒸发散和降水量变化及其各自的线性趋势。

Fig. 2 Annual variation of streamflow, potential evapotranspiration, and precipitation with their respective linear regression line.

图3 1960-2005年清水河流域年径流量、潜在蒸发散、降水量趋势分析。 A-C, 径流量、潜在蒸发散、降水量Mann-Kendall检验曲线。D-F, 径流量、潜在蒸发散、降水量滑动t检验曲线。C1, Mann-Kendall统计值组成的曲线; C2, Mann-Kendall反序列统计值组成的曲线; T, 滑动t检验的统计值; α, 显著性水平。

Fig. 3 Trend of annual streamflow, potential evapotranspiration, and precipitation in Qingshui River watershed from 1960 to 2005. A-C, The Mann-Kendall curves of streamflow, potential evapotranspiration, and precipitation, respectively. D-F, The Moving t-test curves of streamflow, potential evapotranspiration, and precipitation, respectively. C1, the curve of statistics of Mann-Kendall; C2, the curve of deserialized statistics of Mann-Kendall; T, statistics of Moving t-test; α, significance level.

表1 不同土地利用类型的面积及面积变化率

Table 1 Area and the change rate of area of different land use types

	年份 Year	农地 Cropland	乔木林地 Woodland	灌木林地 Shrubland	荒草地 Grassland	居民区 Residential area
面积 Area (km²)	1959	105.12	12.38	97.97	220.14	0.44
	1986	44.52	115.71	91.12	183.86	0.78
	2007	37.28	129.19	116.89	157.70	2.88
面积变化率 Area change rate (%)	1959-1986	-57.67	835.41	-6.99	-16.46	83.36
	1986-2007	-34.09	11.64	28.29	-14.23	268.71
	1959-2007	-72.10	944.27	19.33	-28.35	576.07

表2 清水河流域年径流量、平均气温、潜在蒸发散及降水量的变化

Table 2 Variations of annual streamflow, mean temperature, potential evapotranspiration and precipitation in Qingshui River watershed

	基准段(1960-1980年) Baseline period (1960-1980)			变化段(1981-2005年) Changed period (1981-2005)
	平均值 Mean	标准偏差 SD	变异系数 CV (%)	平均值 Mean	标准偏差 SD	变异系数CV (%)
径流量 Streamflow	2.15×10⁷ m³	1.04×10⁷ m³	0.48	8.7×10⁶ m³	2.78×10⁶ m³	0.32
潜在蒸发散 Potential evapotranspiration	800.09 mm	16.85 mm	0.02	815.58 mm	36.81 mm	0.04
降水量 Pricipitation	552.30 mm	137.48 mm	0.25	528.50 mm	95.41 mm	0.18

表3 清水河流域气候及土地利用变化对径流的影响

Table 3 Effects of climate and landuse change on streamflow in the Qingshui River watershed

时段 Period	降水量P (mm)	潜在蒸发散E₀(mm)	径流量 Q (mm)	$\Delta {{Q}^{tot}}^{{}}$(mm)	$\Delta {{\overline{Q}}^{c\lim }}$(mm)	$\Delta {{\overline{Q}}^{LUCC}}$(mm)
1960-1980	552.3	800.09	50.98	-32.29	-15.11	-17.18
1981-2005	528.5	815.58	18.69	-32.29	-15.11	-17.18

图4 基准段和变化段日径流量的累计频率曲线(用对数曲线表示)。

Fig. 4 Accumulated frequency distribution curve of baseline period and changed period (expressed as logarithmic curve).

图5 1960-2005年清水河流域不同流量径流趋势。 C1、C2、T、α同图3。

Fig. 5 Trend of different flow of annual streamflow in Qingshui River watershed from 1960 to 2005. C1, C2, T, α see Fig. 3.

图6 1981-2005年径流的变化趋势。 C1、C2、T、α同图3。

Fig. 6 Trend of annual streamflow from 1981 to 2005. C1, C2, T, α see Fig. 3.

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