Chin J Plan Ecolo ›› 2017, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (4): 387-395.DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2016.0184
• Orginal Article • Next Articles
Lei ZHANG1, Lin-lin WANG2, Shi-Rong LIU3,*(), Peng-Sen SUN3, Zhen YU4, Shu-Tao HUANG5, Xu- Dong ZHANG1
Received:
2016-05-31
Accepted:
2017-01-03
Online:
2017-04-10
Published:
2017-05-19
Contact:
Shi-Rong LIU
Lei ZHANG, Lin-lin WANG, Shi-Rong LIU, Peng-Sen SUN, Zhen YU, Shu-Tao HUANG, Xu- Dong ZHANG. An evaluation of four threshold selection methods in species occurrence modelling with random forest: Case studies with Davidia involucrata and Cunninghamia lanceolata[J]. Chin J Plan Ecolo, 2017, 41(4): 387-395.
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URL: https://www.plant-ecology.com/EN/10.17521/cjpe.2016.0184
Fig. 1 Binary (A) and probability (B) distribution maps of Davidia involucrata under current climate produced by the same model-building dataset. Frequency of the presence of Davidia involucrata calculated across 45 predictions under current (C) and future (D) climates and the frequency of stable (E), lost (F) and gained (G) habitats under future climate.
精度指标 Accuracy measure | 公式 Formula |
---|---|
总准确度 Overall accuracy | (a +d)/n |
敏感度 Sensitivity | a/(a + c) |
特异度 Specificity | d/(b + d) |
Kappa | $\frac{\left( a\text{+}d \right)-\text{ }\!\![\!\!\text{ }\left( a\text{+}c \right)\left( a\text{+}b \right)\text{+}\left( b\text{+}d \right)\left( c\text{+}d \right)\text{ }\!\!]\!\!\text{ /}n}{n-\text{ }\!\![\!\!\text{ }\left( a\text{+}c \right)\left( a\text{+}b \right)\text{+(}b\text{+}d\text{)(}c\text{+}d\text{) }\!\!]\!\!\text{ /}n}$ |
真实技巧统计法 True skill statistic (TSS) | Sensitivity + Specificit -1 |
Table 1 Measures of predictive accuracy
精度指标 Accuracy measure | 公式 Formula |
---|---|
总准确度 Overall accuracy | (a +d)/n |
敏感度 Sensitivity | a/(a + c) |
特异度 Specificity | d/(b + d) |
Kappa | $\frac{\left( a\text{+}d \right)-\text{ }\!\![\!\!\text{ }\left( a\text{+}c \right)\left( a\text{+}b \right)\text{+}\left( b\text{+}d \right)\left( c\text{+}d \right)\text{ }\!\!]\!\!\text{ /}n}{n-\text{ }\!\![\!\!\text{ }\left( a\text{+}c \right)\left( a\text{+}b \right)\text{+(}b\text{+}d\text{)(}c\text{+}d\text{) }\!\!]\!\!\text{ /}n}$ |
真实技巧统计法 True skill statistic (TSS) | Sensitivity + Specificit -1 |
阈值选择方法 Threshold method | 阈值 Threshold | Kappa | 真实技巧统计法 TSS | 总准确度 Overall accuracy | 敏感度 Sensitivity | 特异度 Specificity | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
珙桐 Davidia involucrata | 默认值0.5 Default 0.5 | 0.500 (0.000)a | 0.871 (0.024)a | 0.871 (0.024)a | 0.935 (0.012)a | 0.976 (0.019)a | 0.894 (0.025)a |
最大总准确度 Maximizing overall accuracy (MaxAcc) | 0.476 (0.187)ab | 0.872 (0.025)a | 0.872 (0.025)a | 0.936 (0.012)a | 0.975 (0.021)a | 0.897 (0.027)a | |
最大Kappa Maximizing Kappa (MaxKappa) | 0.364 (0.185)b | 0.872 (0.025)a | 0.872 (0.025)a | 0.936 (0.012)a | 0.976 (0.020)a | 0.895 (0.027)a | |
最大真实技巧统计法 Maximizing true skill statistic (MaxTSS) | 0.364 (0.185)b | 0.872 (0.025)a | 0.872 (0.025)a | 0.936 (0.012)a | 0.976 (0.020)a | 0.895 (0.027)a | |
随机森林分类 Random forest classification tree (RFCT) | - | 0.869 (0.030)a | 0.869 (0.030)a | 0.935 (0.015)a | 0.982 (0.022)a | 0.888 (0.031)a | |
杉木 Cunninghamia lanceolata | 默认值0.5 Default 0.5 | 0.500 (0.000)a | 0.903 (0.010)a | 0.903 (0.010)a | 0.951 (0.005)a | 0.962 (0.010)a | 0.941 (0.009)a |
最大总准确度 Maximizing overall accuracy (MaxAcc) | 0.540 (0.078)a | 0.908 (0.011)a | 0.908 (0.011)a | 0.954 (0.006)a | 0.958 (0.013)a | 0.950 (0.009)a | |
最大Kappa Maximizing Kappa (MaxKappa) | 0.540 (0.078)a | 0.908 (0.011)a | 0.908 (0.011)a | 0.954 (0.006)a | 0.958 (0.013)a | 0.950 (0.009)a | |
最大TSS Maximizing true skill statistic (MaxTSS) | 0.541 (0.076)a | 0.908 (0.011)a | 0.908 (0.011)a | 0.954 (0.006)a | 0.958 (0.013)a | 0.950 (0.009)a | |
随机森林分类 Random forest classification tree (RFCT) | - | 0.905 (0.010)a | 0.905 (0.010)a | 0.952 (0.005)a | 0.961 (0.010)a | 0.943 (0.007)a |
Table 2 Thresholds selected by four threshold criteria and model accuracies determined by five measures
阈值选择方法 Threshold method | 阈值 Threshold | Kappa | 真实技巧统计法 TSS | 总准确度 Overall accuracy | 敏感度 Sensitivity | 特异度 Specificity | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
珙桐 Davidia involucrata | 默认值0.5 Default 0.5 | 0.500 (0.000)a | 0.871 (0.024)a | 0.871 (0.024)a | 0.935 (0.012)a | 0.976 (0.019)a | 0.894 (0.025)a |
最大总准确度 Maximizing overall accuracy (MaxAcc) | 0.476 (0.187)ab | 0.872 (0.025)a | 0.872 (0.025)a | 0.936 (0.012)a | 0.975 (0.021)a | 0.897 (0.027)a | |
最大Kappa Maximizing Kappa (MaxKappa) | 0.364 (0.185)b | 0.872 (0.025)a | 0.872 (0.025)a | 0.936 (0.012)a | 0.976 (0.020)a | 0.895 (0.027)a | |
最大真实技巧统计法 Maximizing true skill statistic (MaxTSS) | 0.364 (0.185)b | 0.872 (0.025)a | 0.872 (0.025)a | 0.936 (0.012)a | 0.976 (0.020)a | 0.895 (0.027)a | |
随机森林分类 Random forest classification tree (RFCT) | - | 0.869 (0.030)a | 0.869 (0.030)a | 0.935 (0.015)a | 0.982 (0.022)a | 0.888 (0.031)a | |
杉木 Cunninghamia lanceolata | 默认值0.5 Default 0.5 | 0.500 (0.000)a | 0.903 (0.010)a | 0.903 (0.010)a | 0.951 (0.005)a | 0.962 (0.010)a | 0.941 (0.009)a |
最大总准确度 Maximizing overall accuracy (MaxAcc) | 0.540 (0.078)a | 0.908 (0.011)a | 0.908 (0.011)a | 0.954 (0.006)a | 0.958 (0.013)a | 0.950 (0.009)a | |
最大Kappa Maximizing Kappa (MaxKappa) | 0.540 (0.078)a | 0.908 (0.011)a | 0.908 (0.011)a | 0.954 (0.006)a | 0.958 (0.013)a | 0.950 (0.009)a | |
最大TSS Maximizing true skill statistic (MaxTSS) | 0.541 (0.076)a | 0.908 (0.011)a | 0.908 (0.011)a | 0.954 (0.006)a | 0.958 (0.013)a | 0.950 (0.009)a | |
随机森林分类 Random forest classification tree (RFCT) | - | 0.905 (0.010)a | 0.905 (0.010)a | 0.952 (0.005)a | 0.961 (0.010)a | 0.943 (0.007)a |
阈值方法 Threshold | 当前适生区 Total habitat area (×103 km2) | 总生境变 化比例 Total range change (%) | 新生境 比例 Habitat gained (%) | 生境消失 比例 Habitat lost (%) | 东向迁移 距离 Eastward shift (km) | 北向迁移 距离 Northward shift (km) | 高程迁移 距离 Uphill shift (m) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
珙桐 Davidia involucrata | Default 0.5 | 762.8 (34.6)a | -95.9 (3.8)a | 0.6 (0.9)a | 96.6 (3.0)a | 70.7 (133.2)a | 252.3 (43.5)a | -341 (211)a |
MaxAcc | 761.1 (69.1)a | -94.8 (6.4)a | 1.0 (1.3)a | 95.8 (5.1)a | 69.3 (164.5)a | 228.4 (80.5)a | -336 (244)a | |
MaxKappa | 780.1 (69.5)ab | -94.3 (6.6)ab | 1.1 (1.4)ab | 95.4 (5.3)ab | 50.9 (164.4)a | 241.7 (41.7)a | -341 (255)a | |
MaxTSS | 780.1 (69.5)ab | -94.3 (6.6)ab | 1.1 (1.4)ab | 95.4 (5.3)ab | 50.9 (164.4)a | 241.7 (41.7)a | -341 (255)a | |
RFCT | 804.3 (27.9)b | -60.1 (1.9)b | 7.9 (1.1)b | 68.0 (1.8)b | -236.0 (33.9)b | 134.5 (9.0)b | 242 (63)b | |
杉木 Cunninghamia lanceolata | Default 0.5 | 1β401.5 (14.4)a | -0.3 (0.1)ab | 0.1 (0.0)ab | 0.4 (0.1)ab | -129.1 (22.1)a | 68.5 (14.9)ab | 243.3 (37.5)a |
MaxAcc | 1β367.4 (67.9)a | -0.4 (0.2)b | 0.1 (0.1)ab | 0.5 (0.1)b | -107.6 (48.2)ab | 57.6 (32.6)b | 238.7 (33.4)ab | |
MaxKappa | 1β367.4 (67.9)a | -0.4 (0.2)b | 0.1 (0.1)ab | 0.5 (0.1)b | -107.6 (48.2)ab | 57.6 (32.6)b | 238.7 (33.4)ab | |
MaxTSS | 1β365.7 (65.8)a | -0.4 (0.2)b | 0.1 (0.1)b | 0.5 (0.1)b | -108.0 (48.4)ab | 57.3 (32.5)b | 238.9 (33.5)ab | |
RFCT | 1β391.2 (11.0)a | -0.3 (0.1)a | 0.1 (0.0)a | 0.4 (0.1)a | -82.0 (26.8)b | 81.5 (12.2)a | 183.0 (38.8)b |
Table 3 Potential habitat suitable areas and changes in the distribution range of tree species (change in area and shift in distance and direction of mean centers of suitable habitat) for the normal period 2070-2099 (2080s) relative to current baseline (1961-1990).
阈值方法 Threshold | 当前适生区 Total habitat area (×103 km2) | 总生境变 化比例 Total range change (%) | 新生境 比例 Habitat gained (%) | 生境消失 比例 Habitat lost (%) | 东向迁移 距离 Eastward shift (km) | 北向迁移 距离 Northward shift (km) | 高程迁移 距离 Uphill shift (m) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
珙桐 Davidia involucrata | Default 0.5 | 762.8 (34.6)a | -95.9 (3.8)a | 0.6 (0.9)a | 96.6 (3.0)a | 70.7 (133.2)a | 252.3 (43.5)a | -341 (211)a |
MaxAcc | 761.1 (69.1)a | -94.8 (6.4)a | 1.0 (1.3)a | 95.8 (5.1)a | 69.3 (164.5)a | 228.4 (80.5)a | -336 (244)a | |
MaxKappa | 780.1 (69.5)ab | -94.3 (6.6)ab | 1.1 (1.4)ab | 95.4 (5.3)ab | 50.9 (164.4)a | 241.7 (41.7)a | -341 (255)a | |
MaxTSS | 780.1 (69.5)ab | -94.3 (6.6)ab | 1.1 (1.4)ab | 95.4 (5.3)ab | 50.9 (164.4)a | 241.7 (41.7)a | -341 (255)a | |
RFCT | 804.3 (27.9)b | -60.1 (1.9)b | 7.9 (1.1)b | 68.0 (1.8)b | -236.0 (33.9)b | 134.5 (9.0)b | 242 (63)b | |
杉木 Cunninghamia lanceolata | Default 0.5 | 1β401.5 (14.4)a | -0.3 (0.1)ab | 0.1 (0.0)ab | 0.4 (0.1)ab | -129.1 (22.1)a | 68.5 (14.9)ab | 243.3 (37.5)a |
MaxAcc | 1β367.4 (67.9)a | -0.4 (0.2)b | 0.1 (0.1)ab | 0.5 (0.1)b | -107.6 (48.2)ab | 57.6 (32.6)b | 238.7 (33.4)ab | |
MaxKappa | 1β367.4 (67.9)a | -0.4 (0.2)b | 0.1 (0.1)ab | 0.5 (0.1)b | -107.6 (48.2)ab | 57.6 (32.6)b | 238.7 (33.4)ab | |
MaxTSS | 1β365.7 (65.8)a | -0.4 (0.2)b | 0.1 (0.1)b | 0.5 (0.1)b | -108.0 (48.4)ab | 57.3 (32.5)b | 238.9 (33.5)ab | |
RFCT | 1β391.2 (11.0)a | -0.3 (0.1)a | 0.1 (0.0)a | 0.4 (0.1)a | -82.0 (26.8)b | 81.5 (12.2)a | 183.0 (38.8)b |
Fig. 2 Pairwise Kappa correlation of habitat maps of four threshold selection method under current (A, C) and future (B, D) climates. Error bars represent standard errors. The abbreviations of threshold methods are the same as in Table 2.
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