Quantitative analysis of climate change and human activities on vegetation gross primary productivity in Nei Mongol, China

doi:10.17521/cjpe.2023.0134

Abstract

Abstract:

Aims Nei Mongol is an important ecological security barrier in northern China, and the study of changes in its vegetation productivity is of great significance to the ecological security of the northern region.

Methods Based on multi-source remote sensing data such as Eddy Covariance-Light Use Efficiency Gross Primary Productivity (EC-LUE GPP) in Nei Mongol from 1982 to 2017, this paper uses trend analysis and correlation analysis to analyze the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of vegetation gross primary production (GPP) in Nei Mongol and its correlation with air temperature, precipitation and soil moisture. On this basis, multiple linear regression and residual analysis methods were used to decompose and quantify GPP under the influence of climate changes and human activities, divide different time periods to carry out its impact on vegetation GPP, and explore the impact of different vegetation types on the driving factors response.

Important findings (1) Three meteorological elements showed good correlation with vegetation GPP, among which precipitation and soil moisture had higher correlations with GPP. (2) During the period 1982-1990, vegetation GPP showed an insignificant increasing trend with large fluctuations and the remaining three time periods (1991-2000, 2001-2010, 2011-2017) showed an insignificant downward trend. The areas with an overall downward trend accounted for 55% of the total area, and the other 45% showed a significant upward trend. (3) Except for the period from 2001 to 2010, climate changes played a decisive role in vegetation restoration in the other three time periods (1982-1990, 1991-2000, 2011-2017), explaining 20%, 16% and 13% of vegetation restoration, respectively. Human activities dominated vegetation degradation areas, explaining 13%, 19% and 20% of vegetation degradation, respectively. The research results can provide scientific reference for the implementation of ecological environmental protection and management policies and green and sustainable development in Nei Mongol.

Key words: climate chang, human activity, gross primary productivity, residual analysis, Nei Mongol

YANG Yu-Meng, LAI Quan, LIU Xin-Yi. Quantitative analysis of climate change and human activities on vegetation gross primary productivity in Nei Mongol, China[J]. Chin J Plant Ecol, 2024, 48(3): 306-316.

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URL: https://www.plant-ecology.com/EN/10.17521/cjpe.2023.0134

https://www.plant-ecology.com/EN/Y2024/V48/I3/306

Figures/Tables 8

Fig. 1 Spatial distribution map of vegetation types in research area in Nei Mongol.

Table 1 Methods for assessing the relative rates of contribution of climate change and human activities (Wen et al., 2017; Liu et al., 2019b)

方法(比较斜率值) Method (compare slope value)	预测和残差 Predictions and residuals		相对作用率 Relative action rate (%)		解释 Description
方法(比较斜率值) Method (compare slope value)	S(GPP_a)	S(GPP_h)	气候变化 Climate change	人类活动 Human activities	解释 Description
S(GPP_a) > 0	>0	<0	100	0	气候变化导致GPP增加 Climate changes increase GPP
	<0	>0	0	100	人类活动导致GPP增加 Human activities increase GPP
	>0	>0	$\frac{S\left(\mathrm{GPP}_{\mathrm{p}}\right)}{S\left(\mathrm{GPP}_{\mathrm{a}}\right)} \times 100 \%$	$\frac{S\left(\mathrm{GPP}_{\mathrm{h}}\right)}{S\left(\mathrm{GPP}_{\mathrm{a}}\right)} \times 100 \%$	气候变化和人类活动共同导致GPP增加 Climate changes and human activities increase GPP
S(GPP_a) = 0	0	0	0	0	GPP不发生变化 GPP unchanged
S(GPP_a) < 0	<0	>0	100	0	气候变化导致GPP减少 Climate changes reduce GPP
	>0	<0	0	100	人类活动导致GPP减少 Human activities reduce GPP
	<0	<0	$\frac{S\left(\mathrm{GPP}_{\mathrm{p}}\right)}{S\left(\mathrm{GPP}_{\mathrm{a}}\right)} \times 100 \%$	$\frac{S\left(\mathrm{GPP}_{\mathrm{h}}\right)}{S\left(\mathrm{GPP}_{\mathrm{a}}\right)} \times 100 \%$	气候变化和人类活动共同导致GPP减少 Climate changes and human activities reduce GPP

Fig. 2 Interannual variation of vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) (A) and spatial distribution of most correlating climatic factors of GPP (B) in research area in Nei Mongol from 1982 to 2017.

Fig. 3 Interannual variation of vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) of different vegetation types (A) and change trend of vegetation GPP in different periods (B-F) in research area in Nei Mongol from 1982 to 2017. a, forest; b, meadow steppe; c, typical steppe; d, desert steppe; e, cropland. NT, negative trend; PT, positive trend.

Fig. 4 Relative contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) changes in research area in Nei Mongol from 1982 to 2017. a, forest; b, meadow steppe; c, typical steppe; d, desert steppe; e, cropland.

Fig. 5 Comparison of images of three sampling points in Mau Us Sandy Land, Ordos.

Table 2 Positive and negative effects of human activities on vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) in Ordos City as a proportion of the total area

时间 Year	正效应 Positive effect (%)	负效应 Negative effect (%)
1982-1990	2.61	41.61
1991-2000	4.44	16.17
2001-2010	37.02	10.82

Fig. 6 Number of livestock in Xilin Gol League from 2000 to 2017.

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