Dynamics of ecosystem carbon storage of potential natural vegetation in China under climate change

doi:10.17521/cjpe.2022.0352

Abstract

Abstract:

Aims Carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems is one of the important ways to slow down the rise of atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Therefore, understanding the natural vegetation ecosystems carbon storage (ECS) in response of future climate change is critical for making of regional land management policies.
Methods In this study, the sensitive parameters of LPJ-GUESS model are calibrated based on genetic algorithm. Using the downscale climate data-driven model, combined with Mann Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimation and partial correlation analysis, the temporal and spatial patterns, trend change characteristics and climate dominant factors of China’s ECS from 2001 to 2100 are analyzed.
Important findings The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and Pearson correlation coefficient of the calibrated LPJ-GUESS model in simulating ECS are 0.751 and 0.901, respectively, indicating that the LPJ-GUESS model can simulate China’s ECS well. During 2001-2020, China’s ECS decreased from southeast to northwest, with a total amount of 156.06 Pg. Vegetation, litter and soil carbon storage accounted for 34.2%, 1.9% and 63.8% of total ECS, respectively. The ECS in 2081-2100 shows similar spatial pattern with that in historical periods. The total amount of ECS at the end of this century are expected to increase by 0.51-11.16 Pg. The growth rates of China’s ECS was 8.5 g·m^-2·a^-1 and 3.7-21.0 g·m^-2·a^-1 during 2001-2020 and 2021-2100, respectively. During 2021-2100, significant increases of ECS are observed in southeast China, Nei Mongol Plateau, Qingzang Plateau (37-44 g·m^-2·a^-1), while obvious decreases (45-72 g·m^-2·a^-1, in the southern Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, hilly areas in Guangxi and Guangdong. In northwest China, temperature is the dominant factor affecting ECS. The influences of precipitation on ECS are strengthened from the southeast to northwest. In high latitude and high-altitude areas, radiation is the dominant factor of ECS. CO₂ plays the most important role on ECS across about 47.9%-56.1% of China’s area.

Key words: climate change, potential natural vegetation, ecosystem carbon storage, LPJ-GUESS model, climatic driver factor

ZHANG Ji-Shen, SHI Xin-Jie, LIU Yu-Nuo, WU Yang, PENG Shou-Zhang. Dynamics of ecosystem carbon storage of potential natural vegetation in China under climate change[J]. Chin J Plant Ecol, 2024, 48(4): 428-444.

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Figures/Tables 12

References 47

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植物功能型 Plant functional type	min_surv (℃)	max_est (℃)	twmin_est (℃)	gdd5min_est (℃)
热带阔叶常绿树种 Tropical broadleaf evergreen trees	4.99	1 000	-1 000	3 500.00
热带阔叶雨绿树种 Tropical broadleaf raingreen trees	8.91	1 000	-1 000	3 000.00
亚热带常绿阔叶树种 Sub-tropical evergreen broadleaf trees	-3.07	17.72	15.40	2 887.70
温带落叶阔叶树种 Temperate deciduous broadleaf trees	-32.77	-0.93	13.99	973.54
温带常绿针叶树种 Temperate evergreen needleleaf trees	-32.18	9.49	3.14	0.34
北方落叶针叶树种 Boreal deciduous needleleaf trees	-1 000	-17.92	8.61	231.12
山地寒温性针叶树种 Mountain cold needleleaf trees	-16.20	17.34	1.62	1 000
温带落叶灌木 Temperate deciduous shrubs	-28.47	4.67	14.31	1 141.32
温带荒漠灌木 Temperate desert shrubs	-19.16	-3.54	15.22	1 816.72
热带-亚热带灌木 Tropical-subtropical shrubs	-5.99	1 000	-1 000	1 950.99
高山常绿灌木 Alpine evergreen shrubs	-16.44	3.76	5.60	0.04
高寒落叶灌木 Alpine deciduous shrubs	-1 000	0.14	4.43	0.03
高寒荒漠灌木 Alpine desert shrubs	-22.09	-13.66	2.50	0.00
温带草甸草本 Temperate meadow grasses	-32.18	20.14	9.50	0.23
温带草原草本 Temperate steppe grasses	-27.92	-0.36	10.76	836.63
稀树草原草本 Savannah grasses	-6.11	1 000	-1 000	2 274.44
高寒草甸草本 Alpine meadow grasses	-1 000	-4.19	2.33	0.00
高寒草原草本 Alpine steppe grasses	-1 000	-6.29	0.66	0.00

植物功能型 Plant functional type	min_surv (℃)	max_est (℃)	twmin_est (℃)	gdd5min_est (℃)
热带阔叶常绿树种 Tropical broadleaf evergreen trees	4.99	1 000	-1 000	3 500.00
热带阔叶雨绿树种 Tropical broadleaf raingreen trees	8.91	1 000	-1 000	3 000.00
亚热带常绿阔叶树种 Sub-tropical evergreen broadleaf trees	-3.07	17.72	15.40	2 887.70
温带落叶阔叶树种 Temperate deciduous broadleaf trees	-32.77	-0.93	13.99	973.54
温带常绿针叶树种 Temperate evergreen needleleaf trees	-32.18	9.49	3.14	0.34
北方落叶针叶树种 Boreal deciduous needleleaf trees	-1 000	-17.92	8.61	231.12
山地寒温性针叶树种 Mountain cold needleleaf trees	-16.20	17.34	1.62	1 000
温带落叶灌木 Temperate deciduous shrubs	-28.47	4.67	14.31	1 141.32
温带荒漠灌木 Temperate desert shrubs	-19.16	-3.54	15.22	1 816.72
热带-亚热带灌木 Tropical-subtropical shrubs	-5.99	1 000	-1 000	1 950.99
高山常绿灌木 Alpine evergreen shrubs	-16.44	3.76	5.60	0.04
高寒落叶灌木 Alpine deciduous shrubs	-1 000	0.14	4.43	0.03
高寒荒漠灌木 Alpine desert shrubs	-22.09	-13.66	2.50	0.00
温带草甸草本 Temperate meadow grasses	-32.18	20.14	9.50	0.23
温带草原草本 Temperate steppe grasses	-27.92	-0.36	10.76	836.63
稀树草原草本 Savannah grasses	-6.11	1 000	-1 000	2 274.44
高寒草甸草本 Alpine meadow grasses	-1 000	-4.19	2.33	0.00
高寒草原草本 Alpine steppe grasses	-1 000	-6.29	0.66	0.00

文献来源; 研究时期(年) Literature source; research period (year)	类型 Type	PNVCS (Pg)	LCS (Pg)	SCS (Pg)	ECS (Pg)
Tang et al., 2018; 2011-2015	中国实际碳储量, 植被 Actual carbon storage of China, vegetation	12.55 ± 3.07	0.46 ± 0.48	49.92 ± 4.98	62.93 ± 3.39
	中国实际碳储量, 作物 Actual carbon storage of China, crops	0.55 ± 0.02	-	15.77 ± 0.57	16.32 ± 0.41
	中国实际碳储量, 所有 Actual carbon storage of China, all	14.29 ± 0.74	0.46 ± 0.48	74.98 ± 1.28	89.27 ± 1.05
本研究 This study; 2011-2015	中国潜在碳储量, 植被 Potential carbon storage of China, vegetation	29.86	1.74	64.66	96.26
	中国潜在碳储量, 作物 Potential carbon storage of China, crops	21.20	1.03	25.78	48.00
	中国潜在碳储量, 所有 Potential carbon storage of China, all	53.43	3.00	99.62	156.06
Bloom et al., 2016; 2001-2010	中国实际碳储量, 所有 Actual carbon storage of China, all	-	-	-	128.47
本研究 This study; 2001-2010	中国潜在碳储量, 所有 Potential carbon storage of China, all	52.34	2.92	98.12	155.65
Walker et al., 2022*; 2016	中国实际碳储量, 限制 Actual carbon storage of China, restriction	20.90	-	165.15	186.56
	中国实际碳储量, 不限制 Actual carbon storage of China, no restriction	25.65	-	234.98	260.64
	中国潜在碳储量, 限制 Potential carbon storage of China, restriction	27.65	-	173.25	201.85
	中国潜在碳储量, 不限制 Potential carbon storage of China, no restriction	40.08	-	255.07	296.43
本研究 This study; 2016	中国潜在碳储量, 限制 Potential carbon storage of China, restriction	30.49	1.77	61.17	93.42
	中国潜在碳储量, 不限制 Potential carbon storage of China, no restriction	53.24	3.00	98.32	154.56
Walker et al., 2022*; 2050	中国潜在碳储量, RCP85 Potential carbon storage of China, RCP85	39.07	-	-	-
本研究 This study; 2050	中国潜在碳储量, SSP119 Potential carbon storage of China, SSP119	53.54	3.04	96.66	153.24
	SSP245	51.87	3.07	95.50	150.44
	SSP585	54.22	3.23	95.80	153.26

文献来源; 研究时期(年) Literature source; research period (year)	类型 Type	PNVCS (Pg)	LCS (Pg)	SCS (Pg)	ECS (Pg)
Tang et al., 2018; 2011-2015	中国实际碳储量, 植被 Actual carbon storage of China, vegetation	12.55 ± 3.07	0.46 ± 0.48	49.92 ± 4.98	62.93 ± 3.39
	中国实际碳储量, 作物 Actual carbon storage of China, crops	0.55 ± 0.02	-	15.77 ± 0.57	16.32 ± 0.41
	中国实际碳储量, 所有 Actual carbon storage of China, all	14.29 ± 0.74	0.46 ± 0.48	74.98 ± 1.28	89.27 ± 1.05
本研究 This study; 2011-2015	中国潜在碳储量, 植被 Potential carbon storage of China, vegetation	29.86	1.74	64.66	96.26
	中国潜在碳储量, 作物 Potential carbon storage of China, crops	21.20	1.03	25.78	48.00
	中国潜在碳储量, 所有 Potential carbon storage of China, all	53.43	3.00	99.62	156.06
Bloom et al., 2016; 2001-2010	中国实际碳储量, 所有 Actual carbon storage of China, all	-	-	-	128.47
本研究 This study; 2001-2010	中国潜在碳储量, 所有 Potential carbon storage of China, all	52.34	2.92	98.12	155.65
Walker et al., 2022*; 2016	中国实际碳储量, 限制 Actual carbon storage of China, restriction	20.90	-	165.15	186.56
	中国实际碳储量, 不限制 Actual carbon storage of China, no restriction	25.65	-	234.98	260.64
	中国潜在碳储量, 限制 Potential carbon storage of China, restriction	27.65	-	173.25	201.85
	中国潜在碳储量, 不限制 Potential carbon storage of China, no restriction	40.08	-	255.07	296.43
本研究 This study; 2016	中国潜在碳储量, 限制 Potential carbon storage of China, restriction	30.49	1.77	61.17	93.42
	中国潜在碳储量, 不限制 Potential carbon storage of China, no restriction	53.24	3.00	98.32	154.56
Walker et al., 2022*; 2050	中国潜在碳储量, RCP85 Potential carbon storage of China, RCP85	39.07	-	-	-
本研究 This study; 2050	中国潜在碳储量, SSP119 Potential carbon storage of China, SSP119	53.54	3.04	96.66	153.24
	SSP245	51.87	3.07	95.50	150.44
	SSP585	54.22	3.23	95.80	153.26