• 研究论文 •

### 黑果枸杞在新疆的适宜分布模拟与局部环境适应性分化

1. 1石河子大学理学院, 干旱区景观生态重点实验室, 绿洲城镇与山盆系统生态兵团重点实验室, 新疆石河子 832000
2新疆维吾尔自治区草原总站, 乌鲁木齐 830049
3石河子大学生命科学学院, 绿洲城镇与山盆系统生态兵团重点实验室, 新疆石河子 832000
• 收稿日期:2021-05-12 接受日期:2021-07-15 出版日期:2021-11-20 发布日期:2021-08-26
• 通讯作者: 马松梅
• 作者简介:* (shzmsm@126.com)
• 基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(41561007);国家自然科学基金(41261011);新疆维吾尔自治区草原总站草原生态修复治理补助项目(XJCYZZ202007)

### Suitable distribution simulation and local environmental adaptability differentiation of Lycium ruthenicum in Xinjiang, China

YAN Han1, ZHANG Yun-Ling2, MA Song-Mei1,*(), WANG Chun-Cheng3, ZHANG Dan3

1. 1Key Laboratory of Arid Land Landscape Ecology, Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Key Laboratory of Oasis Town and Mountain-basin System Ecology, College of Science, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, China
2General Grassland Station of Xinjiang, Ürümqi 830049, China
3Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Key Laboratory of Oasis Town and Mountain-basin System Ecology, College of Life Sciences, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, China
• Received:2021-05-12 Accepted:2021-07-15 Online:2021-11-20 Published:2021-08-26
• Contact: MA Song-Mei
• Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41561007);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41261011);Grassland Ecological Restoration and Management Subsidy Project of the Grassland Station of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(XJCYZZ202007)

Abstract:

Aims Lycium ruthenicum is a very important medicinal and edible species that plays an essential role in wind prevention and sand fixation in the arid desert areas. However, it is currently facing a serious situation of fragmented distribution.
Methods In this study, 19 environmental variables of L. ruthenicum were collected from 87 natural distribution points distributed in Xinjiang under current climate (1971-2000). The GIS spatial analysis and R software Biomod2 modeling platform were employed to simulate and analyze the suitable distribution, spatial distribution characteristics, and key limiting factors of L. ruthenicum in Xinjiang, and evaluate the distribution potential by combining the current land use/land cover situation in the study area. The distribution of L. ruthenicum in southern and northern Xinjiang was modeled by subspecies grouping to analyze the niche differentiation of this species.
Important findings The results showed that: (1) The true skill statistic (TSS) and area under the curve of receiver operator characteristic curves (AUC) of the ensemble model were obviously improved compared with those of individual models. The TSS and AUC of the ensemble models were uniformly greater than 0.75 and 0.85, respectively. The simulation accuracy of the subspecies grouping modeling was significantly improved compared with the species-level simulation, and the TSS and AUC were higher than 0.78 and 0.88. (2) According to the simulation results obtained by the ensemble model, the proportion of the suitable distribution area of L. ruthenicum in Xinjiang accounts for about 36.72% of the total area of the province, and it was mainly distributed in the Junggar Basin, the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountain and the northwest and southwest margins of the Tarim Basin. Among them, the area of highly suitable distribution accounted for 5.19%, which was concentrated in the Fuhai County, the eastern of the Tacheng Region, and the line from Bole to Fukang on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, Korla, Keping County, and the southwest margin of the Tarim Basin. The overlap between highly and moderately suitable areas and the cultivated land in the study area amounted to 80.6% and 50.8%. (3) There was a significant niche differentiation of L. ruthenicum populations in northern and southern Xinjiang, and mean temperature of warmest quarter, isothermality, and precipitation seasonality were the main factors causing the local environmental adaptation differentiation of L. ruthenicum in Xinjiang.