黑果枸杞在新疆的适宜分布模拟与局部环境适应性分化

doi:10.17521/cjpe.2021.0179

植物生态学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (11): 1221-1230.DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2021.0179

黑果枸杞在新疆的适宜分布模拟与局部环境适应性分化

闫涵¹, 张云玲², 马松梅¹^,^*(), 王春成³, 张丹³

¹石河子大学理学院, 干旱区景观生态重点实验室, 绿洲城镇与山盆系统生态兵团重点实验室, 新疆石河子 832000
²新疆维吾尔自治区草原总站, 乌鲁木齐 830049
³石河子大学生命科学学院, 绿洲城镇与山盆系统生态兵团重点实验室, 新疆石河子 832000

收稿日期:2021-05-12 接受日期:2021-07-15 出版日期:2021-11-20 发布日期:2021-08-26
通讯作者: 马松梅
作者简介:* (shzmsm@126.com)
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(41561007);国家自然科学基金(41261011);新疆维吾尔自治区草原总站草原生态修复治理补助项目(XJCYZZ202007)

Suitable distribution simulation and local environmental adaptability differentiation of Lycium ruthenicum in Xinjiang, China

YAN Han¹, ZHANG Yun-Ling², MA Song-Mei¹^,^*(), WANG Chun-Cheng³, ZHANG Dan³

¹Key Laboratory of Arid Land Landscape Ecology, Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Key Laboratory of Oasis Town and Mountain-basin System Ecology, College of Science, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, China
²General Grassland Station of Xinjiang, Ürümqi 830049, China
³Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Key Laboratory of Oasis Town and Mountain-basin System Ecology, College of Life Sciences, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, China

Received:2021-05-12 Accepted:2021-07-15 Online:2021-11-20 Published:2021-08-26
Contact: MA Song-Mei
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41561007);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41261011);Grassland Ecological Restoration and Management Subsidy Project of the Grassland Station of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(XJCYZZ202007)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

黑果枸杞(Lycium ruthenicum)是重要的药食同源植物, 在干旱荒漠区发挥着防风固沙的重要生态功能, 但目前片段化分布日趋严重。该研究利用黑果枸杞在新疆的87个自然分布点和基准气候(1971-2000年)下的19个气候变量, 利用GIS空间分析和R软件Biomod2建模平台, 模拟分析黑果枸杞在新疆的适宜分布范围、空间分布特征及其关键限制因子; 并结合研究区土地利用/土地覆被现状, 评价其分布潜力; 同时对黑果枸杞的南北疆种群进行分组建模, 分析该植物的生态位分化。研究结果表明: (1)组合模型的真实技巧统计(TSS)均高于0.75、接收工作机特征曲线下的面积(AUC)均高于0.85, 模拟精度相比单个模型有明显提高; 组合模型得到的种下分组建模的模拟准确性较物种水平有显著提升, TSS均高于0.78、AUC均高于0.88; (2)根据组合模型的模拟结果, 黑果枸杞在新疆的适宜生境面积占比为36.72%, 主要分布于准噶尔盆地、天山北坡及塔里木盆地西北缘和西南缘; 其中, 高度适生区面积占比为5.19%, 集中于福海县、塔城地区东部、天山北坡博乐至阜康一线、库尔勒、柯坪县及塔里木盆地西南缘。高度与中度适生区与研究区耕地的重叠率达80.6%和50.8%; (3)南北疆黑果枸杞种群存在显著的生态位分化, 最暖季平均气温、等温性、降水季节性是驱动黑果枸杞局部环境适应性分化的主要因子。

关键词: 黑果枸杞, 适宜分布, 生态位分化, 驱动因子, 种下分组模拟

Abstract:

Aims Lycium ruthenicum is a very important medicinal and edible species that plays an essential role in wind prevention and sand fixation in the arid desert areas. However, it is currently facing a serious situation of fragmented distribution.
Methods In this study, 19 environmental variables of L. ruthenicum were collected from 87 natural distribution points distributed in Xinjiang under current climate (1971-2000). The GIS spatial analysis and R software Biomod2 modeling platform were employed to simulate and analyze the suitable distribution, spatial distribution characteristics, and key limiting factors of L. ruthenicum in Xinjiang, and evaluate the distribution potential by combining the current land use/land cover situation in the study area. The distribution of L. ruthenicum in southern and northern Xinjiang was modeled by subspecies grouping to analyze the niche differentiation of this species.
Important findings The results showed that: (1) The true skill statistic (TSS) and area under the curve of receiver operator characteristic curves (AUC) of the ensemble model were obviously improved compared with those of individual models. The TSS and AUC of the ensemble models were uniformly greater than 0.75 and 0.85, respectively. The simulation accuracy of the subspecies grouping modeling was significantly improved compared with the species-level simulation, and the TSS and AUC were higher than 0.78 and 0.88. (2) According to the simulation results obtained by the ensemble model, the proportion of the suitable distribution area of L. ruthenicum in Xinjiang accounts for about 36.72% of the total area of the province, and it was mainly distributed in the Junggar Basin, the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountain and the northwest and southwest margins of the Tarim Basin. Among them, the area of highly suitable distribution accounted for 5.19%, which was concentrated in the Fuhai County, the eastern of the Tacheng Region, and the line from Bole to Fukang on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, Korla, Keping County, and the southwest margin of the Tarim Basin. The overlap between highly and moderately suitable areas and the cultivated land in the study area amounted to 80.6% and 50.8%. (3) There was a significant niche differentiation of L. ruthenicum populations in northern and southern Xinjiang, and mean temperature of warmest quarter, isothermality, and precipitation seasonality were the main factors causing the local environmental adaptation differentiation of L. ruthenicum in Xinjiang.

Key words: Lycium ruthenicum, suitable for distribution, niche differentiation, driving factor, subspecies grouping simulation

闫涵, 张云玲, 马松梅, 王春成, 张丹. 黑果枸杞在新疆的适宜分布模拟与局部环境适应性分化. 植物生态学报, 2021, 45(11): 1221-1230. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2021.0179

YAN Han, ZHANG Yun-Ling, MA Song-Mei, WANG Chun-Cheng, ZHANG Dan. Suitable distribution simulation and local environmental adaptability differentiation of Lycium ruthenicum in Xinjiang, China. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2021, 45(11): 1221-1230. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2021.0179

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链接本文: https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/10.17521/cjpe.2021.0179

https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/Y2021/V45/I11/1221

图/表 7

图1 基于物种模拟(A)和南北疆分组模拟(B)的黑果枸杞在新疆的适宜分布及其与研究区土地利用/土地覆被的叠置(C)。I, 高度适生区; II, 中度适生区; a, 耕地; b, 城乡、工矿、居民用地; c, 草地; d, 林地; e, 水域; f-k为未利用土地(f, 沙地; g, 戈壁; h, 盐碱地; i, 沼泽地; j, 裸土地; k, 裸岩石质地)。

Fig. 1 Suitable distribution of Lycium ruthenicum in Xinjiang by the species-level simulation (A) and grouping simulation (B) and its superposition with land use/land cover (LUCC)(C). I, most suitable; II, moderate suitable; a, the cultivated land; b, land for industrial, mining and residents in urban and rural areas; c, the grassland; d, woodland; e, waters; f-k are unused land (f, sandy land; g, gobi; h, saline and alkaline land; i, marshland; j, bare land; k, bare rock and rocky ground).

表1 各模型评价指标(平均值±标准差)

Table 1 Evaluation indices of each model (mean ± SD)

模拟方式 Simulation method	评估指标 Evaluation index	随机森林 RF	广义线性模型GLM	柔性判别分析FDA	最大熵模型 MaxEnt	广义相加模型GAM	组合模型 Ensemble Model
北疆种群模拟 Simulation of populations in northern Xinjiang	TSS	0.774 ± 0.057	0.793 ± 0.069	0.753 ± 0.065	0.801 ± 0.054	0.756 ± 0.052	0.792 ± 0.042
北疆种群模拟 Simulation of populations in northern Xinjiang	AUC	0.929 ± 0.020	0.909 ± 0.046	0.873 ± 0.046	0.911 ± 0.053	0.818 ± 0.065	0.888 ± 0.021
南疆种群模拟 Simulation of populations in southern Xinjiang	TSS	0.782 ± 0.055	0.762 ± 0.061	0.753 ± 0.064	0.760 ± 0.068	0.753 ± 0.069	0.782 ± 0.049
南疆种群模拟 Simulation of populations in southern Xinjiang	AUC	0.895 ± 0.045	0.907 ± 0.040	0.901 ± 0.054	0.905 ± 0.041	0.895 ± 0.046	0.905 ± 0.046
物种模拟 Simulation of species	TSS	0.766 ± 0.064	0.759 ± 0.084	0.762 ± 0.038	0.751 ± 0.060	0.754 ± 0.081	0.773 ± 0.055
物种模拟 Simulation of species	AUC	0.834 ± 0.031	0.823 ± 0.052	0.781 ± 0.031	0.775 ± 0.043	0.761 ± 0.044	0.853 ± 0.059

表2 不同模型模拟的黑果枸杞在新疆的适宜面积比例(%)

Table 2 Proportion of the suitable distribution area of Lycium ruthenicum in Xinjiang simulated by each model (%)

模拟方式 Simulation method	适生等级 Suitable grade
模拟方式 Simulation method	高度适生区面积比例 Proportion of most suitable areas	中度适生区面积比例 Proportion of moderate suitable areas	低度适生区面积比例 Proportion of low suitable areas
北疆种群模拟 Simulation of populations in northern Xinjiang	2.50	4.33	8.42
南疆种群模拟 Simulation of populations in southern Xinjiang	3.91	3.47	7.75
物种模拟 Simulation of species	5.19	9.06	22.47

表3 不同模型模拟的环境因子对黑果枸杞适宜分布的贡献率及其数值范围

Table 3 Contribution rate and range of threshold of each environmental factor to the suitable distribution of Lycium ruthenicum by each model

环境变量 Environmental variable	贡献率 Contribution rate (%)			数值范围 Range of threshold
环境变量 Environmental variable	北疆种群 Northern population	南疆种群 Southern population	全部种群 Whole populations	数值范围 Range of threshold
等温性 Isothermality	23.4	5.4	15.0	(12, 40)
气温年较差 Temperature annual range (℃)	14.4	21.2	14.4	(33, 63)
最暖季平均气温 Mean temperature of warmest quarter (℃)	5.4	7.5	9.3	(-9, 31)
最冷季平均气温 Mean temperature of coldest quarter (℃)	9.3	49.0	26.8	(-33, -1)
最湿月降水量 Precipitation of wettest month (mm)	26.4	9.0	10.9	(3, 96)
最干月降水量 Precipitation of driest month (mm)	40.3	7.1	17.2	(0, 15)
降水季节性 Precipitation seasonality	6.6	0.8	6.3	(22, 140)

图2 基于黑果枸杞的高度适生区和中度适生区提取的最冷季平均气温(Bio11)、最干月降水量(Bio14)、等温性(Bio03)和气温年较差(Bio07)的数值范围。

Fig. 2 Value ranges of mean temperature of coldest quarter (Bio11), precipitation of driest month (Bio14), isothermality (Bio03) and temperature annual range (Bio07) were extracted based on the most and moderate suitable areas of Lycium ruthenicum in Xinjiang, China.

图3 黑果枸杞南北疆种群的生态位相似性分析(A)、等效性检验(B)与影响生态位分化的驱动因子的贡献率(C)。图A中, 绿色和红色分别表示不同种群的生态位空间, 蓝色表示重叠空间。图C中, 红色到蓝色表示气候变量的贡献率排名。Bio03, 等温性; Bio07, 气温年较差; Bio10, 最暖季平均气温; Bio11, 最冷季平均气温; Bio13, 最湿月降水量; Bio14, 最干月降水量; Bio15, 降水季节性。

Fig. 3 Niche similarity analysis (A), equivalence test (B) and correlation circle of contribution rates of environmental factors (C) of Lycium ruthenicum in southern and northern Xinjiang, China. In figure A, green and red represent niche spaces of different populations, and blue represent overlapping spaces. In figure C, red to blue indicates that the contribution rate rank of climate variables varies. Bio03, isothermality; Bio07, temperature annual range; Bio10, mean temperature of warmest quarter; Bio11, mean temperature of coldest quarter; Bio13, precipitation of wettest month; Bio14, precipitation of driest month; Bio15, precipitation seasonality.

图4 影响黑果枸杞南北疆种群生态位分化的驱动因子的核密度图。Bio03, 等温性; Bio07, 气温年较差; Bio10, 最暖季平均气温; Bio11, 最冷季平均气温; Bio13, 最湿月降水量; Bio14, 最干月降水量; Bio15, 降水季节性。

Fig. 4 Kernel density plots of environmental factors of niche differentiation of Lycium ruthenicum in southern and northern Xinjiang, China. Bio03, isothermality; Bio07, temperature annual range; Bio10, mean temperature of warmest quarter; Bio11, mean temperature of coldest quarter ; Bio13, precipitation of wettest month; Bio14, precipitation of driest month; Bio15, precipitation seasonality.

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黑果枸杞在新疆的适宜分布模拟与局部环境适应性分化

Suitable distribution simulation and local environmental adaptability differentiation of Lycium ruthenicum in Xinjiang, China

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