气候变化对蒙古扁桃适宜分布范围和空间格局的影响

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1258.2014.00023

植物生态学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (3): 262-269.DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1258.2014.00023

气候变化对蒙古扁桃适宜分布范围和空间格局的影响

马松梅¹^,^*(), 聂迎彬², 耿庆龙³, 王荣学⁴

¹石河子大学理学院地理系, 新疆石河子 832000
²新疆农垦科学院作物研究所, 新疆石河子 832000
³新疆农业科学院土壤肥料与农业节水研究所, 乌鲁木齐830091
⁴内蒙古自治区巴彦淖尔盟林业种苗站, 内蒙古巴彦淖尔盟 015000

收稿日期:2013-09-10 接受日期:2013-11-29 出版日期:2014-09-10 发布日期:2014-02-27
通讯作者: 马松梅
作者简介:* E-mail: shzmsm@126.com
基金资助:
石河子大学自然科学一般项目(ZRKX-YB-043);国家自然科学基金(41261011);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2014CB954201-3)

Impact of climate change on suitable distribution range and spatial pattern in Amygdalus mongolica

MA Song-Mei¹^,^*(), NIE Ying-Bin², GENG Qing-Long³, WANG Rong-Xue⁴

¹Department of Geography, College of Science, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, China
²Institute of Crop Research, Xinjiang Academy of Agri-Reclamation Sciences, Shihezi, Xinjiang 832000, China
³Research Institute of Soil & Fertilizer and Agricultural Water Conservation, Xinjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, ürümqi 830091, China;
⁴Forestry Seedling Station of Bayannur Meng of Nei Mongol Autonomous Region, Bayannur Meng, Nei Mongol 015000, China

Received:2013-09-10 Accepted:2013-11-29 Online:2014-09-10 Published:2014-02-27
Contact: MA Song-Mei

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为模拟、预测气候变化对孑遗、濒危植物蒙古扁桃(Amygdalus mongolica)潜在分布的影响, 利用最大熵(MAXENT)模型模拟、预测、对比、分析、揭示蒙古扁桃在最大冰期(CCSM及MIROC模型)、历史气候(1961-1990年)及未来气候(2020年、2050年和2080年, 政府间气候变化专门委员会排放情景特别报告的A2A情景)条件下的适宜分布范围和空间格局的变化。结果表明: (1)蒙古扁桃在历史气候条件下的潜在分布区集中在蒙古的南戈壁省及东戈壁省, 我国内蒙古巴彦淖尔市、阿拉善左旗、鄂尔多斯市、锡林郭勒盟西部, 河西走廊中部及东部, 宁夏北部及陕西北部, 以及河北北部的部分地区; (2)与历史气候条件下的潜在分布相比, 蒙古扁桃在最大冰期CCSM气候情景下的分布经历了明显的、大范围的向南迁移和范围缩小; (3)未来A2A气候情景下, 其潜在分布范围表现出在2020年明显扩大, 在2050年减小, 到2080年又略有增大的趋势。分布格局表现出不断向我国河北及内蒙古东部, 蒙古东部、北部及西部大幅度扩散、迁移的趋势。

关键词: 蒙古扁桃, 适宜分布范围, 气候变化, MAXENT模型, 空间分布格局

Abstract:

Aims Our objective was to simulate and predict the impact of climate change on potential distribution in the relic and endangered Amygdalus mongolica, hence providing scientific basis for understanding the evolution and protection of this species.
Methods Maximum entropy (MAXENT) model was employed to simulate, forecast, compare, analyze, and reveal the changes in the distribution range and spatial pattern in the relic and endangered A. mongolica at the Last Glacial Maximum (based on Community Climate System Model and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate), and under the historical (1961-1990) and future climate conditions (2020, 2050 and 2080, all based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2A). The accuracy evaluation of repeat models of A. mongolica, and the average probability of occurrence and standard deviation based on repeat models were analyzed with the spatial analysis methods in the ArcGIS10.0.
Important findings The potential distribution of A. mongolica under the historical climate conditions centered in Ömnögovǐ and Dornogovǐ of Mongolia, Bayannur City, Alxa Zuoqi, Ordos City, and western Xilin Gol Meng of Nei Mongol, the central and eastern regions of Hexi Corridor, the northern Ningxia and Shaanxi, and part of the northern Heibei. Furthermore, the distribution of A. mongolica at the Last Glacial Maximum based on Community Climate System Model climate scenario experienced the widely southward shift and range retraction. Last but not the least, under the future A2A climate scenario of IPCC, the potential distribution of A. mongolica would be significantly increased by 2020, and then decreased by 2050, with a slightly increasing trend until 2080. The distribution patterns of A. mongolica showed a large spread and shift to eastern Hebei and the eastern Nei Mongol of China, and to the eastern, northern, and western Mongolia.

Key words: Amygdalus mongolica, appropriate distribution range, climate change, MAXENT model, spatial distribution pattern

马松梅, 聂迎彬, 耿庆龙, 王荣学. 气候变化对蒙古扁桃适宜分布范围和空间格局的影响. 植物生态学报, 2014, 38(3): 262-269. DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1258.2014.00023

MA Song-Mei, NIE Ying-Bin, GENG Qing-Long, WANG Rong-Xue. Impact of climate change on suitable distribution range and spatial pattern in Amygdalus mongolica . Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2014, 38(3): 262-269. DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1258.2014.00023

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链接本文: https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/10.3724/SP.J.1258.2014.00023

https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/Y2014/V38/I3/262

图/表 4

参考文献 34

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地区 Region	居群编号及地点 Number and location of populations	纬度 Latitude	经度 Longitude	海拔 Altitude (m)	生境 Habitat
内蒙古 Nei Mongol	1 阿拉善左旗特莫乌拉嘎查 Temowula Gazha of Alxa Zuoqi	37°49′ N	104°56′ E	1 465	沙丘 Sand dune
	2 阿拉善左旗贺兰山 Helan Mountain of Alxa Zuoqi	38°51′ N	105°50′ E	2 102	砾石戈壁 Gravel gobi
	3 阿拉善左旗苏力图嘎查 Su Litu Gazha of Alxa Zuoqi	39°55′ N	105°13′ E	1 421	沙丘或砾石沙丘 Sand dunes or gravel dune
	4 阿拉善左旗图克木嘎查 Tukemu Gazha of Alxa Zuoqi	40°24′ N	105°43′ E	1 388	沙丘或砾石沙丘 Sand dunes or gravel dune
	5 乌素图苏海图 Suhaitu, Wusu Tu	39°32′ N	106°35′ E	1 280	小砾石山坡 Small gravel slope
	6 乌素图大麦力沟 Damaili Furrow, Wusu Tu	39°23′ N	106°38′ E	1 382	大砾石山坡 Large gravel slope
	7 乌拉特前旗乌拉山 Ul Mountain, Urad Qianqi	40°44′ N	109°20′ E	1 610	大砾石山坡 Large gravel slope
	8 乌拉特中旗乌加禾镇 Wujiahe Town, Urad Zhongqi	41°18′ N	107°35′ E	1 107	大砾石山坡 Large gravel slope
	9 乌拉特后旗大坝口 Dam Mouth, Urad Houqi	41°04′ N	107°01′ E	1 067	大砾石山坡 Large gravel slope
	10 包头市大青山 Daqing Mountain, Baotou	40°43′ N	109°54′ E	1 195	小砾石山坡 Small gravel slope
甘肃 Gansu	11 祁连山国家级自然保护区 Qilianshan National Nature Reserve	38°09′ N	101°50′ E	2 498	大砾石山坡 Large gravel slope
	12 张掖市龙首山 Longshou Mountain, Zhangye	38°47′ N	101°11′ E	2 203	大砾石山坡 Large gravel slope

地区 Region	居群编号及地点 Number and location of populations	纬度 Latitude	经度 Longitude	海拔 Altitude (m)	生境 Habitat
内蒙古 Nei Mongol	1 阿拉善左旗特莫乌拉嘎查 Temowula Gazha of Alxa Zuoqi	37°49′ N	104°56′ E	1 465	沙丘 Sand dune
	2 阿拉善左旗贺兰山 Helan Mountain of Alxa Zuoqi	38°51′ N	105°50′ E	2 102	砾石戈壁 Gravel gobi
	3 阿拉善左旗苏力图嘎查 Su Litu Gazha of Alxa Zuoqi	39°55′ N	105°13′ E	1 421	沙丘或砾石沙丘 Sand dunes or gravel dune
	4 阿拉善左旗图克木嘎查 Tukemu Gazha of Alxa Zuoqi	40°24′ N	105°43′ E	1 388	沙丘或砾石沙丘 Sand dunes or gravel dune
	5 乌素图苏海图 Suhaitu, Wusu Tu	39°32′ N	106°35′ E	1 280	小砾石山坡 Small gravel slope
	6 乌素图大麦力沟 Damaili Furrow, Wusu Tu	39°23′ N	106°38′ E	1 382	大砾石山坡 Large gravel slope
	7 乌拉特前旗乌拉山 Ul Mountain, Urad Qianqi	40°44′ N	109°20′ E	1 610	大砾石山坡 Large gravel slope
	8 乌拉特中旗乌加禾镇 Wujiahe Town, Urad Zhongqi	41°18′ N	107°35′ E	1 107	大砾石山坡 Large gravel slope
	9 乌拉特后旗大坝口 Dam Mouth, Urad Houqi	41°04′ N	107°01′ E	1 067	大砾石山坡 Large gravel slope
	10 包头市大青山 Daqing Mountain, Baotou	40°43′ N	109°54′ E	1 195	小砾石山坡 Small gravel slope
甘肃 Gansu	11 祁连山国家级自然保护区 Qilianshan National Nature Reserve	38°09′ N	101°50′ E	2 498	大砾石山坡 Large gravel slope
	12 张掖市龙首山 Longshou Mountain, Zhangye	38°47′ N	101°11′ E	2 203	大砾石山坡 Large gravel slope

气候情景 Climate scenario	最小存在阈值 Lowest predicted threshold value	预测成功的点个数 No. of points with successful predictions	p值 p-value
最大冰期(CCSM模型) The Last Glacial Maximum (CCSM model)	4	17	0.011 2
最大冰期(MIROC模型) The Last Glacial Maximum (MIROC model)	4	17	0.394 1
1961-1990年平均气候 Average climate during 1961-1990	8	18	0.011 2
2020年A2A情景 A2A scenario in 2020	9	18	0.020 8
2050年A2A情景 A2A scenario in 2050	3	18	0.077 2
2080年A2A情景 A2A scenario in 2080	3	18	0.040 9

气候情景 Climate scenario	最小存在阈值 Lowest predicted threshold value	预测成功的点个数 No. of points with successful predictions	p值 p-value
最大冰期(CCSM模型) The Last Glacial Maximum (CCSM model)	4	17	0.011 2
最大冰期(MIROC模型) The Last Glacial Maximum (MIROC model)	4	17	0.394 1
1961-1990年平均气候 Average climate during 1961-1990	8	18	0.011 2
2020年A2A情景 A2A scenario in 2020	9	18	0.020 8
2050年A2A情景 A2A scenario in 2050	3	18	0.077 2
2080年A2A情景 A2A scenario in 2080	3	18	0.040 9

气候情景 Climate scenario	百分比 Percentage (%)
最大冰期(CCSM模型)与历史气候对比 The Last Glacial Maximum (CCSM model) vs. historical climate	51.93
最大冰期(MIROC模型)与历史气候对比 The Last Glacial Maximum (MIROC model) vs. historical climate	29.41
2020 (A2A)与历史气候对比 2020 (A2A) vs. historical climate	176.00
2050 (A2A)与历史气候对比 2050 (A2A) vs. historical climate	137.00
2080 (A2A)与历史气候对比 2080 (A2A) vs. historical climate	142.00

气候变化对蒙古扁桃适宜分布范围和空间格局的影响

Impact of climate change on suitable distribution range and spatial pattern in Amygdalus mongolica

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