南盘江流域云南松径向生长对气候暖干化的响应

doi:10.17521/cjpe.2019.0169

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

全球气候变暖背景下, 西南地区气候呈现出明显的暖干化特征, 但区域优势树种云南松(Pinus yunnanensis)对气候暖干化的响应存在不确定性。该研究根据树木年代学方法选择研究区域87株云南松样本进行树芯采集, 构建云南松树轮年表, 结合1952-2016年的气温和降水等气象资料, 利用响应分析、多元回归分析以及滑动相关分析等方法研究了影响南盘江流域云南松径向生长的关键气候因子及其对气候暖干化的响应规律。研究结果表明: 1985年以来, 研究区域气候暖干化特征明显, 气温上升和降水量下降的速率是1984年前的5和6倍, 年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温的上升速率为0.044、0.041和0.050 ℃·a ^-1, 年降水量的下降速率为 6.02 mm·a ^-1。气候暖干化使云南松的生长对温度响应的敏感度降低, 对水分响应的敏感度增强, 气温的解释率由暖干化前的44.95%下降到21.97%, 水分的解释率由暖干化前的55.05%上升到78.03%。暖干化增强了当年气候因子对径向生长的影响, 减弱了上年气候因子的影响, 与径向生长显著相关的当年气候因子增加了3个, 当年气候因子对径向生长的解释率增加了16.05%。暖干化减弱了云南松生长的“滞后效应”, 气候变化对树木生长影响的时效性增强。在5-7月和9-11月, 气候变暖使径向生长与气温、水分的响应关系变得不稳定。该研究可为气候暖干化区域云南松林的经营、管理以及区域气候重建提供理论依据和基础数据。

关键词: 云南松, 年轮, 气候暖干化, 气候响应, 稳定性

Abstract:

Aims Forests in Nanpan River Basin are under severe effects by drought because of the warming and drying climate. As the typical dominant coniferous forests in this region, Pinus yunnanensis forests occur over a broad range and present a good potential for dendroclimatological studies. However, little is known about the relationship between radial growth and climate in this tree species. Our objectives were to determine the constraining factors of radial growth and examine the stability of growth-climate relationships in P. yunnanensis in response to climate warming and drying.Methods We used standardized dendrochronological method, combined with trend analysis of meteorological data from 1952 to 2016, to study the effects of climate variabilities on the radial growth in P. yunnanensis. We extracted increment cores from 87 trees and measured annual ring-width. Response analysis and multiple regression analysis were used to determine the constraining factors of radial growth. Moving correlation was used to detect the stability of growth-climate response.Important findings The annual mean temperature (T_mp), mean maximum temperature (T_mx), and mean minimum temperature (T_mn) in the research region have increased at a rate of 0.044, 0.041 and 0.050 °C·a ^-1, respectively. The annual total precipitation showed a significant decreasing trend at a rate of 6.02 mm·a ^-1 during 1985-2016. The growth of P. yunnanensis trees was less sensitive to temperature but more sensitive to moisture; prior to and after warming and drying period, the explainable variance of radial growth by temperature decreased from 44.95% to 21.97%, and that by moisture-related factors increased from 55.05% to 78.03%. Warming and drying climate enhanced the influence of climatic factors on radial growth of the current year and weakened the influence of climatic factors of the previous year, while increasing the climatic factors of the current year significantly affecting radial growth by three and explanation rate by 16.05%. The “hysteresie effect” weakened and the effects of climate change on growth became more promptly. The growth-climate relationship in P. yunnanensis could become more moisture sensitive under a warming and drying climate. Tree growth and forest productivity of P. yunnanensis in the Nanpan River Basin is likely to decline if the warming and drying climate trend continues.

Key words: Pinus yunnanensis, annual rings, climate warming and drying, climate response, stability

申佳艳, 李帅锋, 黄小波, 雷志全, 施兴全, 苏建荣. 南盘江流域云南松径向生长对气候暖干化的响应. 植物生态学报, 2019, 43(11): 946-958. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2019.0169

SHEN Jia-Yan, LI Shuai-Feng, HUANG Xiao-Bo, LEI Zhi-Quan, SHI Xing-Quan, SU Jian-Rong. Radial growth responses to climate warming and drying in Pinus yunnanensis in Nanpan River Basin. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2019, 43(11): 946-958. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2019.0169

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链接本文: https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/10.17521/cjpe.2019.0169

https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/Y2019/V43/I11/946

图/表 9

图1 云南曲靖沾益区气象站月平均气温、月平均最高气温、月平均最低气温和月降水量年内变化(1952-2016年)。Pre, 月降水量; Tmn, 月平均最低气温; Tmp, 月平均气温; Tmx, 月平均最高气温。

Fig. 1 Monthly mean temperature, monthly mean maximum temperature, monthly mean minimum temperature and precipitation in Zhanyi District Meteorological Station, Qujing,Yunnan (1952-2016). Pre, monthly precipitation; Tmn, monthly mean minimum temperature; Tmp, monthly mean temperature; Tmx, monthly mean maximum temperature.

表1 南盘江流域云南松树木年轮宽度标准年表(STD)统计特征及公共区间统计量

Table 1 Statistics of tree-ring width standard chronology (STD) and common interval analysis of Pinus yunanensis in Nanpan River Basin

统计特征 Statistic feature	标准年表 STD
样本量(树/样芯) Sample size (trees/radii)	62/95
年表时段 Chronology span	1954-2018
平均敏感度 Mean sensitivity	0.18
公共区间 Common period (year)	1968-2015
公共区间统计量 Statistics of common interval analysis
第一特征向量百分比 Variance in first eigenvector (%)	28.26
标准偏差 Standard deviation	0.39
一阶自相关系数 First order autocorrelation	0.125
信噪比 Signal-to-noise ratio	14.31
样本总体代表性 Expressed population signal	0.94
样芯间相关系数 Correlations between cores	0.254

图2 南盘江流域云南松树木年轮宽度指数(RWI)及样本量。

Fig. 2 Tree ring-width index (RWI) and sample size of Pinus yunanensis in Nanpan River Basin.

图3 南盘江研究区域两个时期(1952-1984年, 1985-2016年)气温和降水量变化趋势。Tmn, 月平均最低气温; Tmp, 月平均气温; Tmx, 月平均最高气温。

Fig. 3 Long-term trends of temperature and precipitation during 1952-1984 and 1985-2016 in Nanpan River Basin research region. Tmn, monthly mean minimum temperature; Tmp, monthly mean temperature; Tmx, monthly mean maximum temperature.

图4 南盘江研究区域帕尔默干旱指数(PDSI)以及断面积增长量(BAI)随时间变化趋势。

Fig. 4 Palmer Drought Standard Index (PDSI) and basal area increment (BAI) over time in Nanpan River Basin research region.

图5 南盘江云南松年轮宽度年表与主要气候因子的响应关系。PDSI, 帕尔默干旱指数; Pre, 月降水量; RH, 平均相对湿度; Tmn, 月平均最低气温; Tmp, 月平均气温; Tmx, 月平均最高气温。

Fig. 5 Relationships of ring-width chronology of Pinus yunanensis with major climatic factors in Nanpan River Basin. PDSI, Palmer Drought Standard Index; Pre, monthly precipitation; RH, average air relative humidity; Tmn, monthly mean minimum temperature; Tmp, monthly mean temperature; Tmx, monthly mean maximum temperature.

图6 南盘江树轮宽度年表与不同时段逐月气候因子的响应关系。PDSI, 帕尔默干旱指数; Pre, 月降水量; RH, 平均相对湿度; Tmn, 月平均最低气温; Tmp, 月平均气温; Tmx, 月平均最高气温。

Fig. 6 Response relationships of tree ring-width chronology with monthly climatic factors during different time periods in Nanpan River Basin. Pre, monthly precipitation; PDSI, Palmer Drought Standard Index; RH, average air relative humidity; Tmn, monthly mean minimum temperature; Tmp, monthly mean temperature; Tmx, monthly mean maximum temperature.

图7 简化回归模型中气候因子对云南松径向生长的解释率。cPDSI 11, 当年11月帕尔默干旱指数; cRH 1, 当年1月平均相对湿度; cRH 6, 当年6月平均相对湿度; pRH 7, 上年7月平均相对湿度; pRH 10, 上年10月平均相对湿度; pTmn7, 上年7月平均最低气温; pTmp7, 上年7月平均气温; pTmx12, 上年12月平均温最高气温。

Fig. 7 Pie chart of variance in radial growth in Pinus yunanensis explainable by different climatic factors in optimized regression model. CPDSI 11, Palmer Drought Standard Index of current November; cRH1, mean relative humidity of current January; cRH6, mean relative humidity of current June; pRH7, mean relative humidity of last July; pRH10, mean relative humidity of last October; pTmn7, mean minimum temperature of last July; pTmp7, mean temperature of last July; pTmx12, mean maximum temperature of last December.

图8 云南松年轮宽度年表与上年5月至当年11月主要气候因子的滑动响应分析, 滑动窗口为25年, 偏移1年。A, 云南松径向生长与月平均气温(Tmp)的滑动响应分析。B, 云南松径向生长与月降水量(Pre)的滑动响应分析。C, 云南松径向生长与帕尔默干旱指数(PDSI)的滑动响应分析。

Fig. 8 Sliding response analysis of ring width chronology in Pinus yunanensis with main climatic factors from May of the previous year to November of the current year. The window size is 25 years, and the windows have been offset by one year. A, Sliding response analysis of radial growth and monthly mean temperature (Tmp). B, Sliding response analysis of radial growth and monthly precipitation (Pre). C, Sliding response analysis of radial growth and Palmer Drought Standard Index (PDSI).

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