植物生态学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (8): 826-839.DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2016.0382

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于过程模型的气候变化对长白落叶松人工林净初级生产力的影响

解雅麟1, 王海燕1,*(), 雷相东2   

  1. 1北京林业大学林学院, 北京 100083
    2中国林业科学研究院资源信息研究所, 北京 100091
  • 出版日期:2017-08-10 发布日期:2017-09-29
  • 通讯作者: 王海燕
  • 作者简介:

    康璟瑶(1991-),男,江苏南京人,硕士生,主要从事旅游地理与旅游规划研究,E-mail: kangjingyao_nj@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家林业公益性行业科研专项(201504303)和国家自然科学基金(31270679)

Effects of climate change on net primary productivity in Larix olgensis plantations based on process modeling

Ya-Lin XIE1, Hai-Yan WANG1,*(), Xiang-Dong LEI2   

  1. 1College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
    and
    2Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
  • Online:2017-08-10 Published:2017-09-29
  • Contact: Hai-Yan WANG
  • About author:

    KANG Jing-yao(1991-), E-mail: kangjingyao_nj@163.com

摘要:

气候变化对净初级生产力(NPP)会产生显著的影响, 但影响的方向和程度存在较大的不确定性。过程模型是揭示气候变化对森林生产力影响的重要工具。该文以吉林省四平、临江、白山等地10个林区30块长白落叶松(Larix olgensis)人工林固定样地为研究对象, 基于气候、土壤、林分生长等观测数据, 运用3-PG模型模拟了长白落叶松人工林NPP在一个轮伐期(40 年)内随林龄的动态变化, 以及在未来不同气候情景条件下NPP的变化情况。结果表明: 通过本地参数化后的3-PG模型模拟的长白落叶松林NPP为272.79-844.80 g·m-2·a-1, 与基于样地实测的NPP具有很好的一致性, 平均相对误差和相对均方根误差均小于12%。在未来CO2浓度、温度及降水同时增加的情景下, 长白落叶松林NPP明显增加。单独增加温度会减小长白落叶松林的NPP, 而降水及CO2浓度增加能够在一定程度上促进NPP的增加, 但降水增加的正效应明显弱于温度升高的负效应。参数敏感性分析表明: 生长最适温度、林分比叶面积达(年龄为0时比叶面积+成熟叶比叶面积)/2时的林龄、每次霜冻导致生产力流失天数是模型的关键参数。因此, 3-PG模型可以准确地模拟长白落叶松的NPP, 模拟结果可为应对气候变化的长白落叶松经营管理提供依据。

关键词: 过程模型, 长白落叶松, 气候变化, 净初级生产力

Abstract:

Aims Climate change has significant effects on net primary productivity (NPP) in forests, but there is a large uncertainty in the direction and magnitude of the effects. Process-based models are important tools for understanding the responses of forests to climate change. The objective of the study is to simulate changes in NPP of Larix olgensis plantations under future climate scenarios using 3-PG model in order to guide the management of L. olgensis plantations in the context of global climate change.Methods Data were obtained for 30 permanent plots of L. olgensis plantations in Siping, Linjiang, Baishan, etc. of Jilin Province, and a process model, 3-PG model, was applied to simulate changes in NPP over a rotation period of 40 years under different climate scenarios. Parameter sensitivity was also determined. Important findings The locally parameterized 3-PG model well simulates the changes in NPP against the measured NPP data, with values between 272.79-844.80 g·m-2·a-1 and both mean relative error and relative root mean square error within 12%. The NPP in L. olgensis plantations would increase significantly with increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature and precipitation collectively. However, an increase in temperature alone would lead to a decrease in NPP, but increases in precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration would increase NPP; the positive effect of increasing precipitation appears to be weaker than the negative effect of increasing temperature. Sensitivity analysis shows that the model performance is sensitive to the optimum temperature, stand age at which specific leaf area equals to half of the sum of specific leaf area at age 0 (SLA0) and that for mature leaves (SLA1), and days of production loss due to frost.

Key words: process-based model, Larix olgensis, climate change, net primary productivity (NPP)