基于潜在植被的中国陆地生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性定量评价

doi:10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2008.03.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

陆地生态系统对气候变化的响应及其脆弱性评价研究是当前全球变化领域的重要内容之一。该研究在生态系统过程模型的基础上,耦合了潜在植被对气候变化的动态响应,模拟气候变化对潜在植被分布格局和生态系统主要功能的影响,以潜在植被的变化次数和变化方向定义植被分布对气候变化的敏感性和适应性,以生态系统功能特征量的年际变率及其变化趋势定义生态系统功能对气候变化的敏感性和适应性,进而对生态系统的脆弱性进行定量评价,分析不同气候条件下我国陆地生态系统的脆弱性分布格局及其区域特点。结果表明,我国自然生态系统气候脆弱性的总体特点为南低北高、东低西高,气候变化将会增加系统的脆弱性。采用政府间气候变化委员会排放情景特别报告国内和区域资源情景,即IPCC-SRES-A2气候情景进行的预测模拟表明,到21世纪末我国不脆弱的生态系统比例将减少22%左右,高度脆弱和极度脆弱的生态系统所占的比例较当前气候条件下分别减少1.3%和0.4%。气候变化对我国陆地生态系统的脆弱性分布格局影响不大。不同气候条件下,高度脆弱和极度脆弱的自然生态系统主要分布在我国内蒙古、东北和西北等地区的生态过渡带上及荒漠-草地生态系统中。总体而言,华南及西南大部分地区的生态系统脆弱性将随气候变化而有所增加,而华北及东北地区则有所减小。

关键词: 气候变化, 自然生态系统, 脆弱性, 定量评价, CEVSA模型

Abstract:

Aims Assessment of the sensitivity and vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystem to climate change is one of the most important aspects of global change research. Our objective was to develop a new approach to assessing the vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystem using a process-based ecosystem model.

Methods We developed a new quantitative approach to assess vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems based on an ecosystem process model with two aspects: vegetation changes and ecosystem function changes. In accordance with the definition of vulnerability used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we used change times and changing direction of vegetation as key indicators of sensitivity and adaptation of vegetation responses to climate change. We also used the function's annual variability and its trend as indicators of sensitivity and adaptation of ecosystem functions response to climate change, respectively. Based on these indicators, the integrated vulnerability was determined, including assessment under the contemporary climate condition and future climate change scenarios.

Important findings The more vulnerable ecosystems were found in the north and west areas of China, with less vulnerable ecosystems mostly in the south and east. The vulnerability of ecosystems would increase with climate change, but the pattern of vulnerability would be little changed by the end of this century, depending on the scenarios. The percentage of non-vulnerable ecosystems would be reduced by about 22%, and the highly and exceedingly vulnerable ecosystems would be reduced by about 1.3% and 0.4%, respectively. Most highly vulnerable ecosystems are distributed in northwestern China, Inner Mongolia, south of the Tibet Plateau and some areas of northern and northeastern China, both under contemporary climate condition and the future climate change scenarios, and they were mainly scattered in transition eco-zones and grassland-desert ecosystems in northwestern China. When investigated regionally, the vulnerability would increase in southern, central, northwestern and southwestern China, but vulnerability would decrease in northern and northeastern China and Inner Mongolia of China.

Key words: vulnerability, climate change, quantitative assessment, potential vegetation, terrestrial ecosystem, CEVSA model

於琍, 曹明奎, 陶波, 李克让, 董文杰, 刘洪滨, 刘长友. 基于潜在植被的中国陆地生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性定量评价. 植物生态学报, 2008, 32(3): 521-530. DOI: 10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2008.03.001

YU Li, CAO Ming-Kui, TAO Bo, LI Ke-Rang, DONG Wen-Jie, LIU Hong-Bin, LIU Chang-You. QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE VULNERABILITY OF TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS OF CHINA TO CLIMATE CHANGE BASED ON POTENTIAL VEGETATION. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2008, 32(3): 521-530. DOI: 10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2008.03.001

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链接本文: https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2008.03.001

https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/Y2008/V32/I3/521

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指标 Indicators		指示意义 Means of indicators
植被类型变化 Vegetation type change	实际变化频次 Actual changing frequency	S
	实际变化方向 Actual changing direction	A
	潜在变化频次 Potential changing frequency	S
	潜在变化方向 Potential changing direction	A
净初级生产力 Net primary productivity	年际变率 Annual variability	S
	变化趋势 Trend of annual variability	A
植被碳贮量 Vegetation carbon storage	年际变率 Annual variability	S
	变化趋势 Trend of annual variability	A
土壤碳贮量 Soil carbon storage	年际变率 Annual variability	S
	变化趋势 Trend of annual variability	A
净生态系统生产力 Net ecosystem productivity	年际变率 Annual variability	S
	变化趋势 Trend of annual variability	A

指标 Indicators		指示意义 Means of indicators
植被类型变化 Vegetation type change	实际变化频次 Actual changing frequency	S
	实际变化方向 Actual changing direction	A
	潜在变化频次 Potential changing frequency	S
	潜在变化方向 Potential changing direction	A
净初级生产力 Net primary productivity	年际变率 Annual variability	S
	变化趋势 Trend of annual variability	A
植被碳贮量 Vegetation carbon storage	年际变率 Annual variability	S
	变化趋势 Trend of annual variability	A
土壤碳贮量 Soil carbon storage	年际变率 Annual variability	S
	变化趋势 Trend of annual variability	A
净生态系统生产力 Net ecosystem productivity	年际变率 Annual variability	S
	变化趋势 Trend of annual variability	A

地理区 Geographic regionalization	当前气候条件 Contemporary climate		IPCC-SRES-A2情景 IPCC-SRES-A2 scenarios
地理区 Geographic regionalization	脆弱等级 Vulnerable grade	脆弱度排序 Vulnerable order		脆弱等级 Vulnerable grade	脆弱度排序 Vulnerable order
东北地区Northeastern China	中度脆弱Moderate vulnerability	4	中度脆弱Moderate vulnerability	5
华北地区Northern China	中度脆弱Moderate vulnerability	3	中度脆弱Moderate vulnerability	3
华南地区Southern China	不脆弱Potential vulnerability	8	轻度脆弱Gentle vulnerability	8
华中地区Central China	轻度脆弱Gentle vulnerability	7	轻度脆弱Gentle vulnerability	7
内蒙古地区Inner Mongolia	极度脆弱Exceeding vulnerability	1	极度脆弱Exceeding vulnerability	2
西北地区Northwestern China	高度脆弱High vulnerability	2	极度脆弱Exceeding vulnerability	1
西南地区Southwestern China	轻度脆弱Gentle vulnerability	6	轻度脆弱Gentle vulnerability	6
西藏地区Tibet Plateau China	中度脆弱Moderate vulnerability	5	中度脆弱Moderate vulnerability	4

地理区 Geographic regionalization	当前气候条件 Contemporary climate		IPCC-SRES-A2情景 IPCC-SRES-A2 scenarios
地理区 Geographic regionalization	脆弱等级 Vulnerable grade	脆弱度排序 Vulnerable order		脆弱等级 Vulnerable grade	脆弱度排序 Vulnerable order
东北地区Northeastern China	中度脆弱Moderate vulnerability	4	中度脆弱Moderate vulnerability	5
华北地区Northern China	中度脆弱Moderate vulnerability	3	中度脆弱Moderate vulnerability	3
华南地区Southern China	不脆弱Potential vulnerability	8	轻度脆弱Gentle vulnerability	8
华中地区Central China	轻度脆弱Gentle vulnerability	7	轻度脆弱Gentle vulnerability	7
内蒙古地区Inner Mongolia	极度脆弱Exceeding vulnerability	1	极度脆弱Exceeding vulnerability	2
西北地区Northwestern China	高度脆弱High vulnerability	2	极度脆弱Exceeding vulnerability	1
西南地区Southwestern China	轻度脆弱Gentle vulnerability	6	轻度脆弱Gentle vulnerability	6
西藏地区Tibet Plateau China	中度脆弱Moderate vulnerability	5	中度脆弱Moderate vulnerability	4