中国北方温带地区5种锦鸡儿植物的分布模拟

doi:10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2009.01.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

全面收集中国北方温带干旱–半干旱地区5种主要锦鸡儿植物的地理分布资料, 利用ArcGIS 9.0软件绘制现状分布图, 发现小叶锦鸡儿(Caragana microphylla)、中间锦鸡儿(C. intermedia)和柠条锦鸡儿(C. korshinskii)在空间上呈现出从东到西的地理替代分布格局, 继续向西南方向则分布有藏锦鸡儿(C. tibetica), 向西北方向分布有狭叶锦鸡儿(C. stenophylla), 但它们的分布范围又有一定的重叠。整理5种锦鸡儿分布区内的气象台站长期记录, 选择计算15个具有重要生物学意义的水热指标值; 进而用方差分析、多重比较和因子分析相结合的方法, 研究控制这5种锦鸡儿地理分布的主导驱动因子。结果表明: 控制小叶锦鸡儿和中间锦鸡儿间地理分布差异的主导因子是水分因子, 特别是湿度; 水分因子同样是控制中间锦鸡儿和柠条锦鸡儿间地理分布差异的主导因子, 特别是生长季及年降水量; 控制柠条锦鸡儿和藏锦鸡儿间地理分布差异的主导因子是夏季高温, 控制柠条锦鸡儿和狭叶锦鸡儿地理分布差异的是冬季低温。运用耦合BIOCLIM模型的软件包“DIVA-GIS”模拟预测这5种锦鸡儿的现状潜在分布区及未来气候变化的影响, 结果表明: 现状潜在分布区与实际分布区均有很好的一致性; 在CO₂浓度加倍的未来气候情景下, 5种锦鸡儿植物都会向北大幅度迁移, 在我国的分布范围均缩小, 分布格局发生显著变化。用ROC曲线和Kappa统计值法验证模型表明, BIOCLIM的模拟精度较高。

关键词: 锦鸡儿, 地理分布格局, 主导因子, 气候变化, 模拟预测

Abstract:

Aims Our objective was to investigate the actual geographical distribution patterns and model the potential distribution ranges of five Caragana species, providing their distribution scenarios under future climate change.
Methods We collected spatial distribution data for five major Caragana species in the arid to semi-arid temperate regions of northern China and mapped their current distribution ranges using ArcGIS 9.0. Fifteen water and thermal indices of biological significance were chosen and calculated based on long-term climatic observations from weather stations. Using variance analysis, multiple comparison and factor analysis, we investigated the dominant driving factors for the geographical distribution differences of the five Caragana species. The potential distribution of five Caragana species under present climate and the impacts of future climate change on their patterns were simulated and predicted using software “DIVA-GIS” coupled BIOCLIM, a species distributional model.
Important findings Distributions of C. microphylla, C. intermedia and C. korshinskii occurred in a substitution pattern from east to west, then replacement by C. tibetica southwestward and C. stenophylla northwestward. Moisture especially humidity, was the dominant factor for C. microphylla and C. intermedia. Precipitation during the growing season and annual mean precipitation dominated the distributions of C. intermedia and C. korshinskii. Maximum summer temperature controlled the distribution of C. korshinskii and C. tibetica, and minimum winter temperature determined the ranges of C. korshinskii and C. stenophylla. Simulated present distributions matched actual distribution ranges. Under the future climate scenario with doubled CO₂concentration, the five Caragana species all shifted northward and reduced their areas in China. Evaluation by ROC curve and Kappa statistic showed that BIOCLIM predicted accurately.

Key words: Caragana species, geographical distribution pattern, driving factors, climate change, simulation and prediction

王娟, 倪健. 中国北方温带地区5种锦鸡儿植物的分布模拟. 植物生态学报, 2009, 33(1): 12-24. DOI: 10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2009.01.002

WANG Juan, NI Jian. MODELLING THE DISTRIBUTION OF FIVE CARAGANA SPECIES IN TEMPERATE NORTHERN CHINA. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2009, 33(1): 12-24. DOI: 10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2009.01.002

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链接本文: https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2009.01.002

https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/Y2009/V33/I1/12

图/表 5

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气候指标 Climatic indexes	小叶锦鸡儿C. microphylla			中间锦鸡儿C. intermedia			柠条锦鸡儿C. korshinskii			藏锦鸡儿C. tibetica			狭叶锦鸡儿C. stenophylla
气候指标 Climatic indexes	Mean±SD	Min	Max	Mean±SD	Min	Max	Mean±SD	Min	Max	Mean±SD	Min	Max	Mean±SD	Min	Max
Tann	8.55±3.68^a	-0.96	14.77	7.02±2.51^b	1.38	14.15	7.49±2.30^ab	1.53	14.15	5.40±3.47^c	-3.84	12.73	6.41±2.65^bc	-0.73	12.62
WI	85.34±19.73^a	47.40	125.27	74.97±13.49^b	47.64	117.36	77.01±13.22^b	42.85	117.36	54.42±25.73^c	4.90	94.80	74.42±14.28^b	31.24	111.60
CI	-42.70±25.81^a	-122.70	-6.40	-50.76±18.29^ab	-100.60	-7.62	-47.13±15.49^a	-84.55	-7.62	-49.59±20.07^ab	-111.00	-2.10	-57.55±20.64^b	-118.20	-20.18
MTWM	23.21±2.21^a	17.80	28.87	22.13±1.90^b	17.50	28.87	22.30±1.91^b	17.21	28.87	17.69±4.86^c	7.50	24.10	22.18±2.00^b	13.75	26.60
MTCM	-8.21±6.05^a	-25.10	1.50	-10.19±4.05^ab	-20.80	1.42	-9.32±3.45^a	-18.10	1.42	-8.77±3.89^a	-16.80	3.90	-11.84±4.43^b	-23.40	-3.45
ART	31.41±4.74^a	21.50	45.10	32.32±3.47^ac	24.70	41.90	31.62±2.76^a	24.64	41.40	26.46±5.48^b	16.00	36.00	34.03±4.37^c	24.01	44.50
BT	10.43±2.09^a	6.35	14.77	9.34±1.34^b	6.62	14.15	9.54±1.35b	6.15	14.15	7.51±2.55^c	2.08	12.73	9.21±1.39^b	5.44	13.05
MAX	37.80±2.38^a	27.60	43.30	37.56±2.34^a	31.40	45.60	36.94±2.33^a	29.90	41.70	33.37±4.80^b	22.40	41.10	37.60±2.62^a	27.90	42.70
MIN	-25.39±7.57^a	-42.30	-9.10	-28.60±5.28^bc	-39.70	-9.10	-28.02±5.12^b	-39.40	-9.10	-27.36±6.27^ab	-48.10	-10.60	-30.54±5.36^c	-41.50	-19.70
Pann	476.29±153.04^a	173.63	1042.70	322.96±132.10^bc	113.00	889.12	313.39±163.49^bc	42.40	889.12	364.87±185.80^b	16.10	904.70	274.13±117.99^c	53.60	536.84
HI	5.67±1.78^a	2.06	19.75	4.46±1.88^b	1.33	7.67	4.21±2.13^b	0.46	7.97	12.41±16.14^c	0.37	82.75	3.97±2.37^b	0.59	17.00
S	40.35±12.30^a	14.83	109.50	29.22±11.81^b	9.32	70.26	28.18±14.34^b	3.64	70.26	39.75±24.48^ac	1.68	104.02	25.89±11.49^b	4.82	63.60
PER	1.40±0.49^a	0.41	3.44	2.05±1.07^b	0.94	5.27	2.70±2.59^b	0.94	15.28	2.06±2.90^ab	0.27	22.79	2.60±1.93^b	0.60	11.78
P_5-9	388.65±113.04^a	141.68	836.20	267.97±102.16^bc	95.00	644.98	257.62±126.28^bc	33.40	644.98	302.40±144.76^b	14.80	638.90	225.54±105.00^c	40.60	462.22
P_10-4	87.64±49.57^a	20.30	244.14	54.99±34.14^b	14.90	244.14	55.77±41.56^b	9.00	244.14	62.47±49.21^b	1.30	344.60	48.59±29.29^b	13.00	166.00

气候指标 Climatic indexes	小叶锦鸡儿C. microphylla			中间锦鸡儿C. intermedia			柠条锦鸡儿C. korshinskii			藏锦鸡儿C. tibetica			狭叶锦鸡儿C. stenophylla
气候指标 Climatic indexes	Mean±SD	Min	Max	Mean±SD	Min	Max	Mean±SD	Min	Max	Mean±SD	Min	Max	Mean±SD	Min	Max
Tann	8.55±3.68^a	-0.96	14.77	7.02±2.51^b	1.38	14.15	7.49±2.30^ab	1.53	14.15	5.40±3.47^c	-3.84	12.73	6.41±2.65^bc	-0.73	12.62
WI	85.34±19.73^a	47.40	125.27	74.97±13.49^b	47.64	117.36	77.01±13.22^b	42.85	117.36	54.42±25.73^c	4.90	94.80	74.42±14.28^b	31.24	111.60
CI	-42.70±25.81^a	-122.70	-6.40	-50.76±18.29^ab	-100.60	-7.62	-47.13±15.49^a	-84.55	-7.62	-49.59±20.07^ab	-111.00	-2.10	-57.55±20.64^b	-118.20	-20.18
MTWM	23.21±2.21^a	17.80	28.87	22.13±1.90^b	17.50	28.87	22.30±1.91^b	17.21	28.87	17.69±4.86^c	7.50	24.10	22.18±2.00^b	13.75	26.60
MTCM	-8.21±6.05^a	-25.10	1.50	-10.19±4.05^ab	-20.80	1.42	-9.32±3.45^a	-18.10	1.42	-8.77±3.89^a	-16.80	3.90	-11.84±4.43^b	-23.40	-3.45
ART	31.41±4.74^a	21.50	45.10	32.32±3.47^ac	24.70	41.90	31.62±2.76^a	24.64	41.40	26.46±5.48^b	16.00	36.00	34.03±4.37^c	24.01	44.50
BT	10.43±2.09^a	6.35	14.77	9.34±1.34^b	6.62	14.15	9.54±1.35b	6.15	14.15	7.51±2.55^c	2.08	12.73	9.21±1.39^b	5.44	13.05
MAX	37.80±2.38^a	27.60	43.30	37.56±2.34^a	31.40	45.60	36.94±2.33^a	29.90	41.70	33.37±4.80^b	22.40	41.10	37.60±2.62^a	27.90	42.70
MIN	-25.39±7.57^a	-42.30	-9.10	-28.60±5.28^bc	-39.70	-9.10	-28.02±5.12^b	-39.40	-9.10	-27.36±6.27^ab	-48.10	-10.60	-30.54±5.36^c	-41.50	-19.70
Pann	476.29±153.04^a	173.63	1042.70	322.96±132.10^bc	113.00	889.12	313.39±163.49^bc	42.40	889.12	364.87±185.80^b	16.10	904.70	274.13±117.99^c	53.60	536.84
HI	5.67±1.78^a	2.06	19.75	4.46±1.88^b	1.33	7.67	4.21±2.13^b	0.46	7.97	12.41±16.14^c	0.37	82.75	3.97±2.37^b	0.59	17.00
S	40.35±12.30^a	14.83	109.50	29.22±11.81^b	9.32	70.26	28.18±14.34^b	3.64	70.26	39.75±24.48^ac	1.68	104.02	25.89±11.49^b	4.82	63.60
PER	1.40±0.49^a	0.41	3.44	2.05±1.07^b	0.94	5.27	2.70±2.59^b	0.94	15.28	2.06±2.90^ab	0.27	22.79	2.60±1.93^b	0.60	11.78
P_5-9	388.65±113.04^a	141.68	836.20	267.97±102.16^bc	95.00	644.98	257.62±126.28^bc	33.40	644.98	302.40±144.76^b	14.80	638.90	225.54±105.00^c	40.60	462.22
P_10-4	87.64±49.57^a	20.30	244.14	54.99±34.14^b	14.90	244.14	55.77±41.56^b	9.00	244.14	62.47±49.21^b	1.30	344.60	48.59±29.29^b	13.00	166.00

	ROC曲线 (曲线下面积AUC) ROC curve (Area Under Curve)	Kappa统计量 (k值) Kappa statistic (k value)
小叶锦鸡儿 Caragana microphylla	0.950	0.877
中间锦鸡儿 C. intermedia	0.985	0.964
柠条锦鸡儿 C. korshinskii	0.982	0.940
藏锦鸡儿 C. tibetica	0.959	0.892
狭叶锦鸡儿 C. stenophylla	0.946	0.858

	ROC曲线 (曲线下面积AUC) ROC curve (Area Under Curve)	Kappa统计量 (k值) Kappa statistic (k value)
小叶锦鸡儿 Caragana microphylla	0.950	0.877
中间锦鸡儿 C. intermedia	0.985	0.964
柠条锦鸡儿 C. korshinskii	0.982	0.940
藏锦鸡儿 C. tibetica	0.959	0.892
狭叶锦鸡儿 C. stenophylla	0.946	0.858