植物生态学报 ›› 2009, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (1): 12-24.DOI: 10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2009.01.002
收稿日期:
2007-03-08
接受日期:
2007-04-23
出版日期:
2009-03-08
发布日期:
2009-01-30
通讯作者:
倪健
作者简介:
*E-mail: jni@ibcas.ac.cn基金资助:
Received:
2007-03-08
Accepted:
2007-04-23
Online:
2009-03-08
Published:
2009-01-30
Contact:
NI Jian
摘要:
全面收集中国北方温带干旱–半干旱地区5种主要锦鸡儿植物的地理分布资料, 利用ArcGIS 9.0软件绘制现状分布图, 发现小叶锦鸡儿(Caragana microphylla)、中间锦鸡儿(C. intermedia)和柠条锦鸡儿(C. korshinskii)在空间上呈现出从东到西的地理替代分布格局, 继续向西南方向则分布有藏锦鸡儿(C. tibetica), 向西北方向分布有狭叶锦鸡儿(C. stenophylla), 但它们的分布范围又有一定的重叠。整理5种锦鸡儿分布区内的气象台站长期记录, 选择计算15个具有重要生物学意义的水热指标值; 进而用方差分析、多重比较和因子分析相结合的方法, 研究控制这5种锦鸡儿地理分布的主导驱动因子。结果表明: 控制小叶锦鸡儿和中间锦鸡儿间地理分布差异的主导因子是水分因子, 特别是湿度; 水分因子同样是控制中间锦鸡儿和柠条锦鸡儿间地理分布差异的主导因子, 特别是生长季及年降水量; 控制柠条锦鸡儿和藏锦鸡儿间地理分布差异的主导因子是夏季高温, 控制柠条锦鸡儿和狭叶锦鸡儿地理分布差异的是冬季低温。运用耦合BIOCLIM模型的软件包“DIVA-GIS”模拟预测这5种锦鸡儿的现状潜在分布区及未来气候变化的影响, 结果表明: 现状潜在分布区与实际分布区均有很好的一致性; 在CO2浓度加倍的未来气候情景下, 5种锦鸡儿植物都会向北大幅度迁移, 在我国的分布范围均缩小, 分布格局发生显著变化。用ROC曲线和Kappa统计值法验证模型表明, BIOCLIM的模拟精度较高。
王娟, 倪健. 中国北方温带地区5种锦鸡儿植物的分布模拟. 植物生态学报, 2009, 33(1): 12-24. DOI: 10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2009.01.002
WANG Juan, NI Jian. MODELLING THE DISTRIBUTION OF FIVE CARAGANA SPECIES IN TEMPERATE NORTHERN CHINA. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2009, 33(1): 12-24. DOI: 10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2009.01.002
气候 指标 Climatic indexes | 小叶锦鸡儿C. microphylla | 中间锦鸡儿C. intermedia | 柠条锦鸡儿C. korshinskii | 藏锦鸡儿C. tibetica | 狭叶锦鸡儿C. stenophylla | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean±SD | Min | Max | Mean±SD | Min | Max | Mean±SD | Min | Max | Mean±SD | Min | Max | Mean±SD | Min | Max | |
Tann | 8.55±3.68a | -0.96 | 14.77 | 7.02±2.51b | 1.38 | 14.15 | 7.49±2.30ab | 1.53 | 14.15 | 5.40±3.47c | -3.84 | 12.73 | 6.41±2.65bc | -0.73 | 12.62 |
WI | 85.34±19.73a | 47.40 | 125.27 | 74.97±13.49b | 47.64 | 117.36 | 77.01±13.22b | 42.85 | 117.36 | 54.42±25.73c | 4.90 | 94.80 | 74.42±14.28b | 31.24 | 111.60 |
CI | -42.70±25.81a | -122.70 | -6.40 | -50.76±18.29ab | -100.60 | -7.62 | -47.13±15.49a | -84.55 | -7.62 | -49.59±20.07ab | -111.00 | -2.10 | -57.55±20.64b | -118.20 | -20.18 |
MTWM | 23.21±2.21a | 17.80 | 28.87 | 22.13±1.90b | 17.50 | 28.87 | 22.30±1.91b | 17.21 | 28.87 | 17.69±4.86c | 7.50 | 24.10 | 22.18±2.00b | 13.75 | 26.60 |
MTCM | -8.21±6.05a | -25.10 | 1.50 | -10.19±4.05ab | -20.80 | 1.42 | -9.32±3.45a | -18.10 | 1.42 | -8.77±3.89a | -16.80 | 3.90 | -11.84±4.43b | -23.40 | -3.45 |
ART | 31.41±4.74a | 21.50 | 45.10 | 32.32±3.47ac | 24.70 | 41.90 | 31.62±2.76a | 24.64 | 41.40 | 26.46±5.48b | 16.00 | 36.00 | 34.03±4.37c | 24.01 | 44.50 |
BT | 10.43±2.09a | 6.35 | 14.77 | 9.34±1.34b | 6.62 | 14.15 | 9.54±1.35b | 6.15 | 14.15 | 7.51±2.55c | 2.08 | 12.73 | 9.21±1.39b | 5.44 | 13.05 |
MAX | 37.80±2.38a | 27.60 | 43.30 | 37.56±2.34a | 31.40 | 45.60 | 36.94±2.33a | 29.90 | 41.70 | 33.37±4.80b | 22.40 | 41.10 | 37.60±2.62a | 27.90 | 42.70 |
MIN | -25.39±7.57a | -42.30 | -9.10 | -28.60±5.28bc | -39.70 | -9.10 | -28.02±5.12b | -39.40 | -9.10 | -27.36±6.27ab | -48.10 | -10.60 | -30.54±5.36c | -41.50 | -19.70 |
Pann | 476.29±153.04a | 173.63 | 1042.70 | 322.96±132.10bc | 113.00 | 889.12 | 313.39±163.49bc | 42.40 | 889.12 | 364.87±185.80b | 16.10 | 904.70 | 274.13±117.99c | 53.60 | 536.84 |
HI | 5.67±1.78a | 2.06 | 19.75 | 4.46±1.88b | 1.33 | 7.67 | 4.21±2.13b | 0.46 | 7.97 | 12.41±16.14c | 0.37 | 82.75 | 3.97±2.37b | 0.59 | 17.00 |
S | 40.35±12.30a | 14.83 | 109.50 | 29.22±11.81b | 9.32 | 70.26 | 28.18±14.34b | 3.64 | 70.26 | 39.75±24.48ac | 1.68 | 104.02 | 25.89±11.49b | 4.82 | 63.60 |
PER | 1.40±0.49a | 0.41 | 3.44 | 2.05±1.07b | 0.94 | 5.27 | 2.70±2.59b | 0.94 | 15.28 | 2.06±2.90ab | 0.27 | 22.79 | 2.60±1.93b | 0.60 | 11.78 |
P5-9 | 388.65±113.04a | 141.68 | 836.20 | 267.97±102.16bc | 95.00 | 644.98 | 257.62±126.28bc | 33.40 | 644.98 | 302.40±144.76b | 14.80 | 638.90 | 225.54±105.00c | 40.60 | 462.22 |
P10-4 | 87.64±49.57a | 20.30 | 244.14 | 54.99±34.14b | 14.90 | 244.14 | 55.77±41.56b | 9.00 | 244.14 | 62.47±49.21b | 1.30 | 344.60 | 48.59±29.29b | 13.00 | 166.00 |
表1 5种锦鸡儿分布的气候指标
Table 1 Climatic indexes of 5 Caragana species
气候 指标 Climatic indexes | 小叶锦鸡儿C. microphylla | 中间锦鸡儿C. intermedia | 柠条锦鸡儿C. korshinskii | 藏锦鸡儿C. tibetica | 狭叶锦鸡儿C. stenophylla | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean±SD | Min | Max | Mean±SD | Min | Max | Mean±SD | Min | Max | Mean±SD | Min | Max | Mean±SD | Min | Max | |
Tann | 8.55±3.68a | -0.96 | 14.77 | 7.02±2.51b | 1.38 | 14.15 | 7.49±2.30ab | 1.53 | 14.15 | 5.40±3.47c | -3.84 | 12.73 | 6.41±2.65bc | -0.73 | 12.62 |
WI | 85.34±19.73a | 47.40 | 125.27 | 74.97±13.49b | 47.64 | 117.36 | 77.01±13.22b | 42.85 | 117.36 | 54.42±25.73c | 4.90 | 94.80 | 74.42±14.28b | 31.24 | 111.60 |
CI | -42.70±25.81a | -122.70 | -6.40 | -50.76±18.29ab | -100.60 | -7.62 | -47.13±15.49a | -84.55 | -7.62 | -49.59±20.07ab | -111.00 | -2.10 | -57.55±20.64b | -118.20 | -20.18 |
MTWM | 23.21±2.21a | 17.80 | 28.87 | 22.13±1.90b | 17.50 | 28.87 | 22.30±1.91b | 17.21 | 28.87 | 17.69±4.86c | 7.50 | 24.10 | 22.18±2.00b | 13.75 | 26.60 |
MTCM | -8.21±6.05a | -25.10 | 1.50 | -10.19±4.05ab | -20.80 | 1.42 | -9.32±3.45a | -18.10 | 1.42 | -8.77±3.89a | -16.80 | 3.90 | -11.84±4.43b | -23.40 | -3.45 |
ART | 31.41±4.74a | 21.50 | 45.10 | 32.32±3.47ac | 24.70 | 41.90 | 31.62±2.76a | 24.64 | 41.40 | 26.46±5.48b | 16.00 | 36.00 | 34.03±4.37c | 24.01 | 44.50 |
BT | 10.43±2.09a | 6.35 | 14.77 | 9.34±1.34b | 6.62 | 14.15 | 9.54±1.35b | 6.15 | 14.15 | 7.51±2.55c | 2.08 | 12.73 | 9.21±1.39b | 5.44 | 13.05 |
MAX | 37.80±2.38a | 27.60 | 43.30 | 37.56±2.34a | 31.40 | 45.60 | 36.94±2.33a | 29.90 | 41.70 | 33.37±4.80b | 22.40 | 41.10 | 37.60±2.62a | 27.90 | 42.70 |
MIN | -25.39±7.57a | -42.30 | -9.10 | -28.60±5.28bc | -39.70 | -9.10 | -28.02±5.12b | -39.40 | -9.10 | -27.36±6.27ab | -48.10 | -10.60 | -30.54±5.36c | -41.50 | -19.70 |
Pann | 476.29±153.04a | 173.63 | 1042.70 | 322.96±132.10bc | 113.00 | 889.12 | 313.39±163.49bc | 42.40 | 889.12 | 364.87±185.80b | 16.10 | 904.70 | 274.13±117.99c | 53.60 | 536.84 |
HI | 5.67±1.78a | 2.06 | 19.75 | 4.46±1.88b | 1.33 | 7.67 | 4.21±2.13b | 0.46 | 7.97 | 12.41±16.14c | 0.37 | 82.75 | 3.97±2.37b | 0.59 | 17.00 |
S | 40.35±12.30a | 14.83 | 109.50 | 29.22±11.81b | 9.32 | 70.26 | 28.18±14.34b | 3.64 | 70.26 | 39.75±24.48ac | 1.68 | 104.02 | 25.89±11.49b | 4.82 | 63.60 |
PER | 1.40±0.49a | 0.41 | 3.44 | 2.05±1.07b | 0.94 | 5.27 | 2.70±2.59b | 0.94 | 15.28 | 2.06±2.90ab | 0.27 | 22.79 | 2.60±1.93b | 0.60 | 11.78 |
P5-9 | 388.65±113.04a | 141.68 | 836.20 | 267.97±102.16bc | 95.00 | 644.98 | 257.62±126.28bc | 33.40 | 644.98 | 302.40±144.76b | 14.80 | 638.90 | 225.54±105.00c | 40.60 | 462.22 |
P10-4 | 87.64±49.57a | 20.30 | 244.14 | 54.99±34.14b | 14.90 | 244.14 | 55.77±41.56b | 9.00 | 244.14 | 62.47±49.21b | 1.30 | 344.60 | 48.59±29.29b | 13.00 | 166.00 |
图3 北方温带地区5种锦鸡儿的现状潜在分布及未来变化图 左侧为植物种的现状潜在分布区, 右侧为植物种的未来潜在分布区。一共4个灰度等级 (0~5%, 5%~10%, 10%~20%, 20%~35%), 颜色越深表示分布的可能性越大
Fig. 3 Present and future potential distribution maps of 5 Caragana species in temperate northern China, predicted by DIVA-GIS The left part of the figure is the present potential distribution range and the right one is the future potential distribution range. Four grey degrees (0-5%, 5%-10%, 10%-20%, 20%-35%) indicate that more darker the color, more probable the species distribution
ROC曲线 (曲线下面积AUC) ROC curve (Area Under Curve) | Kappa统计量 (k值) Kappa statistic (k value) | |
---|---|---|
小叶锦鸡儿 Caragana microphylla | 0.950 | 0.877 |
中间锦鸡儿 C. intermedia | 0.985 | 0.964 |
柠条锦鸡儿 C. korshinskii | 0.982 | 0.940 |
藏锦鸡儿 C. tibetica | 0.959 | 0.892 |
狭叶锦鸡儿 C. stenophylla | 0.946 | 0.858 |
表2 BIOCLIM模型的评估结果
Table 2 Evaluation of BIOCLIM
ROC曲线 (曲线下面积AUC) ROC curve (Area Under Curve) | Kappa统计量 (k值) Kappa statistic (k value) | |
---|---|---|
小叶锦鸡儿 Caragana microphylla | 0.950 | 0.877 |
中间锦鸡儿 C. intermedia | 0.985 | 0.964 |
柠条锦鸡儿 C. korshinskii | 0.982 | 0.940 |
藏锦鸡儿 C. tibetica | 0.959 | 0.892 |
狭叶锦鸡儿 C. stenophylla | 0.946 | 0.858 |
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