植物生态学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (11): 1274-1282.DOI: 10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2010.11.004
收稿日期:
2010-01-13
接受日期:
2010-05-16
出版日期:
2010-01-13
发布日期:
2010-10-31
通讯作者:
戴君虎
作者简介:
(E-mail: daijh@igsnrr.ac.cn)
BAI Jie1,2, GE Quan-Sheng1, DAI Jun-Hu1,*(), WANG Ying3
Received:
2010-01-13
Accepted:
2010-05-16
Online:
2010-01-13
Published:
2010-10-31
Contact:
DAI Jun-Hu
摘要:
根据1963-2007年中国物候观测网西安观测站的物候和气温、降水资料, 分析了西安站34种木本植物春季展叶始期、展叶盛期、始花期和盛花期等4个关键物候期的变化趋势、对气候变化的阶段响应特点及其与气温、降水变化的关系。结果表明, 1963年以来, 西安地区气温呈显著上升趋势, 特别是1994年前后, 气温发生明显突变, 上升趋势更加明显; 西安春季物候变化主要呈现提前趋势。在45年中, 观测到的34种植物的展叶始期平均提前1天, 展叶盛期平均提前1.4天, 始花期平均提前9天, 盛花期平均提前12天; 以突变点为界, 34个物种1995-2007年的4种物候期比1963-1994年平均提前了4.34±0.77天; 春季物候期的早晚主要受春季气温的影响, 特别是春季物候期发生当月和上一月的平均气温对物候期的影响最为显著。叶物候和物候发生期前一月的降水量有较为明显的相关关系, 花物候期和降水的关系不明显。
白洁, 葛全胜, 戴君虎, 王英. 西安木本植物物候与气候要素的关系. 植物生态学报, 2010, 34(11): 1274-1282. DOI: 10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2010.11.004
BAI Jie, GE Quan-Sheng, DAI Jun-Hu, WANG Ying. Relationship between woody plants phenology and climate factors in Xi’an, China. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2010, 34(11): 1274-1282. DOI: 10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2010.11.004
图1 西安1971-2000年的气候图解。垂直影线是相对湿润期; x轴下方的黑色部分是日平均最低温度在0 ℃以下的月份, 斜阴影是绝对最低温度低于0 ℃的月份。
Fig. 1 Climate diagram of Xi’an from 1971 to 2000. Vertical hatching represents the relative humid season. Black areas below x-axis indicate months with daily mean minimum temperature below 0 ℃, and diagonally hatched bars indicate months with absolute minimum temperature below 0 ℃.
图2 西安1963-2007年年平均气温和春季平均气温的变化趋势及突变。上层图曲线为气温变化曲线, 直线为拟合趋势线; 下层图实曲线为正序列曲线(UF)值, 虚曲线为反序列曲线(UB)值, 虚直线为α = 0.05的信度线。A、B、C分别是年平均气温、2-4月和3-5月月平均气温的变化图。
Fig. 2 The trends and abrupt changes of annual mean air temperature and spring mean air temperature in Xi’an from 1963 to 2007. Upper panel: the jagged segment is the annual mean temperature; the straight line is the linear fit; Lower portion: the solid curve is the positive sequence (UF) value, the dot curve is the negative sequence (UB) value, and the dotted line shows the significance level of 0.05. A, B and C show the variations and trends of annual mean air temperature, monthly mean air temperature from February to April and from March to May.
序号 No. | 展叶始期 Leaf unfolding | 展叶盛期 Full unfolding | 始花期 First flowering | 盛花期 Blossoming | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
趋势 Trend | 显著性 Sig. | 趋势 Trend | 显著性 Sig. | 趋势 Trend | 显著性 Sig. | 趋势 Trend | 显著性 Sig. | ||||||
1 | 0.176 | 0.087? | 0.146 | 0.225 | -0.204 | 0.028* | -0.284 | 0.007** | |||||
2 | -0.066 | 0.492 | -0.115 | 0.258 | -0.202 | 0.277 | -0.371 | 0.025* | |||||
3 | 0.076 | 0.534 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.127 | 0.266 | 0.074 | 0.544 | |||||
4 | -0.037 | 0.685 | -0.047 | 0.617 | -0.240 | 0.045* | -0.282 | 0.003** | |||||
5 | -0.108 | 0.465 | 0.018 | 0.912 | -0.379 | 0.002** | -0.417 | 0.001** | |||||
6 | -0.022 | 0.849 | -0.051 | 0.704 | -0.395 | 0** | -0.452 | 0** | |||||
7 | 0.099 | 0.339 | 0.072 | 0.554 | -0.477 | 0** | -0.498 | 0.007** | |||||
8 | -0.061 | 0.604 | -0.122 | 0.360 | -0.115 | 0.295 | -0.149 | 0.207 | |||||
9 | 0.136 | 0.216 | 0.090 | 0.458 | -0.671 | 0.001** | -0.580 | 0.005** | |||||
10 | 0.184 | 0.132 | 0.203 | 0.082? | 0.299 | 0.084? | 0.246 | 0.094? | |||||
11 | -0.136 | 0.221 | -0.099 | 0.446 | -0.425 | 0.001** | -0.458 | 0.003** | |||||
12 | -0.261 | 0.005** | -0.304 | 0.001** | -0.152 | 0.417 | -0.244 | 0.254 | |||||
13 | 0.044 | 0.576 | 0.038 | 0.662 | -0.139 | 0.241 | -0.186 | 0.111 | |||||
14 | 0.027 | 0.781 | 0.068 | 0.496 | -0.077 | 0.359 | -0.141 | 0.116 | |||||
15 | -0.158 | 0.386 | -0.012 | 0.941 | 0.014 | 0.927 | -0.007 | 0.966 | |||||
16 | -0.173 | 0.015* | -0.219 | 0.009** | -0.570 | 0.069? | -0.687 | 0.031* | |||||
17 | -0.183 | 0.098? | -0.216 | 0.055? | -0.100 | 0.551 | -0.276 | 0.078? | |||||
18 | 0.028 | 0.855 | 0.056 | 0.739 | -0.475 | 0.018* | -0.521 | 0.014* | |||||
19 | 0.008 | 0.940 | 0.016 | 0.897 | -0.005 | 0.965 | -0.081 | 0.45 | |||||
20 | 0.096 | 0.370 | -0.049 | 0.654 | -0.128 | 0.167 | -0.149 | 0.088? | |||||
21 | 0.086 | 0.407 | 0.086 | 0.435 | -0.194 | 0.210 | -0.238 | 0.14 | |||||
22 | -0.060 | 0.504 | -0.080 | 0.375 | -0.160 | 0.065? | -0.235 | 0.012* | |||||
23 | 0.052 | 0.734 | 0.030 | 0.869 | 0.065 | 0.610 | 0.069 | 0.601 | |||||
24 | -0.021 | 0.849 | 0.003 | 0.979 | -0.118 | 0.301 | -0.129 | 0.204 | |||||
25 | -0.009 | 0.957 | -0.085 | 0.498 | -0.216 | 0.139 | -0.285 | 0.055? | |||||
26 | 0.093 | 0.447 | 0.347 | 0.035* | 0.029 | 0.757 | -0.107 | 0.285 | |||||
27 | -0.124 | 0.349 | -0.194 | 0.153 | -0.128 | 0.458 | -0.170 | 0.326 | |||||
28 | -0.130 | 0.104 | -0.086 | 0.297 | -0.175 | 0.055? | -0.217 | 0.024* | |||||
29 | -0.201 | 0.044* | -0.205 | 0.052? | -0.087 | 0.447 | -0.095 | 0.391 | |||||
30 | 0.381 | 0.003** | 0.175 | 0.218 | -0.186 | 0.316 | -0.520 | 0** | |||||
31 | -0.118 | 0.316 | -0.146 | 0.194 | -0.200 | 0.009** | -0.250 | 0.002** | |||||
32 | -0.005 | 0.952 | -0.021 | 0.836 | -0.158 | 0.116 | -0.186 | 0.077? | |||||
33 | -0.287 | 0.002** | -0.323 | 0.001** | -0.350 | 0.001** | -0.431 | 0** | |||||
34 | -0.096 | 0.223 | -0.047 | 0.620 | -0.570 | 0.056? | -0.773 | 0.031* |
表2 西安木本植物春季物候期线性变化趋势
Table 2 The linear trends of spring phenophases of woody plants in Xi’an
序号 No. | 展叶始期 Leaf unfolding | 展叶盛期 Full unfolding | 始花期 First flowering | 盛花期 Blossoming | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
趋势 Trend | 显著性 Sig. | 趋势 Trend | 显著性 Sig. | 趋势 Trend | 显著性 Sig. | 趋势 Trend | 显著性 Sig. | ||||||
1 | 0.176 | 0.087? | 0.146 | 0.225 | -0.204 | 0.028* | -0.284 | 0.007** | |||||
2 | -0.066 | 0.492 | -0.115 | 0.258 | -0.202 | 0.277 | -0.371 | 0.025* | |||||
3 | 0.076 | 0.534 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.127 | 0.266 | 0.074 | 0.544 | |||||
4 | -0.037 | 0.685 | -0.047 | 0.617 | -0.240 | 0.045* | -0.282 | 0.003** | |||||
5 | -0.108 | 0.465 | 0.018 | 0.912 | -0.379 | 0.002** | -0.417 | 0.001** | |||||
6 | -0.022 | 0.849 | -0.051 | 0.704 | -0.395 | 0** | -0.452 | 0** | |||||
7 | 0.099 | 0.339 | 0.072 | 0.554 | -0.477 | 0** | -0.498 | 0.007** | |||||
8 | -0.061 | 0.604 | -0.122 | 0.360 | -0.115 | 0.295 | -0.149 | 0.207 | |||||
9 | 0.136 | 0.216 | 0.090 | 0.458 | -0.671 | 0.001** | -0.580 | 0.005** | |||||
10 | 0.184 | 0.132 | 0.203 | 0.082? | 0.299 | 0.084? | 0.246 | 0.094? | |||||
11 | -0.136 | 0.221 | -0.099 | 0.446 | -0.425 | 0.001** | -0.458 | 0.003** | |||||
12 | -0.261 | 0.005** | -0.304 | 0.001** | -0.152 | 0.417 | -0.244 | 0.254 | |||||
13 | 0.044 | 0.576 | 0.038 | 0.662 | -0.139 | 0.241 | -0.186 | 0.111 | |||||
14 | 0.027 | 0.781 | 0.068 | 0.496 | -0.077 | 0.359 | -0.141 | 0.116 | |||||
15 | -0.158 | 0.386 | -0.012 | 0.941 | 0.014 | 0.927 | -0.007 | 0.966 | |||||
16 | -0.173 | 0.015* | -0.219 | 0.009** | -0.570 | 0.069? | -0.687 | 0.031* | |||||
17 | -0.183 | 0.098? | -0.216 | 0.055? | -0.100 | 0.551 | -0.276 | 0.078? | |||||
18 | 0.028 | 0.855 | 0.056 | 0.739 | -0.475 | 0.018* | -0.521 | 0.014* | |||||
19 | 0.008 | 0.940 | 0.016 | 0.897 | -0.005 | 0.965 | -0.081 | 0.45 | |||||
20 | 0.096 | 0.370 | -0.049 | 0.654 | -0.128 | 0.167 | -0.149 | 0.088? | |||||
21 | 0.086 | 0.407 | 0.086 | 0.435 | -0.194 | 0.210 | -0.238 | 0.14 | |||||
22 | -0.060 | 0.504 | -0.080 | 0.375 | -0.160 | 0.065? | -0.235 | 0.012* | |||||
23 | 0.052 | 0.734 | 0.030 | 0.869 | 0.065 | 0.610 | 0.069 | 0.601 | |||||
24 | -0.021 | 0.849 | 0.003 | 0.979 | -0.118 | 0.301 | -0.129 | 0.204 | |||||
25 | -0.009 | 0.957 | -0.085 | 0.498 | -0.216 | 0.139 | -0.285 | 0.055? | |||||
26 | 0.093 | 0.447 | 0.347 | 0.035* | 0.029 | 0.757 | -0.107 | 0.285 | |||||
27 | -0.124 | 0.349 | -0.194 | 0.153 | -0.128 | 0.458 | -0.170 | 0.326 | |||||
28 | -0.130 | 0.104 | -0.086 | 0.297 | -0.175 | 0.055? | -0.217 | 0.024* | |||||
29 | -0.201 | 0.044* | -0.205 | 0.052? | -0.087 | 0.447 | -0.095 | 0.391 | |||||
30 | 0.381 | 0.003** | 0.175 | 0.218 | -0.186 | 0.316 | -0.520 | 0** | |||||
31 | -0.118 | 0.316 | -0.146 | 0.194 | -0.200 | 0.009** | -0.250 | 0.002** | |||||
32 | -0.005 | 0.952 | -0.021 | 0.836 | -0.158 | 0.116 | -0.186 | 0.077? | |||||
33 | -0.287 | 0.002** | -0.323 | 0.001** | -0.350 | 0.001** | -0.431 | 0** | |||||
34 | -0.096 | 0.223 | -0.047 | 0.620 | -0.570 | 0.056? | -0.773 | 0.031* |
物候期 Phenophase | 1990-2007比1963-1989 1990-2007 vs 1963-1989 | 1995-2007比1963-1994 1995-2007 vs 1963-1994 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
提前个数 (百分比) No. of advance (%) | 平均值 Mean | 标准误差 SE | 提前个数 (百分比) No. of advance (%) | 平均值 Mean | 标准误差 SE | ||
展叶始期 Leaf unfolding | 16 (47) | 0.17 | 0.51 | 27 (79) | -1.81 | 0.67 | |
展叶盛期 Full unfolding | 12 (35) | 1.07 | 0.53 | 25 (74) | -1.35 | 0.66 | |
始花期 First flowering | 29 (85) | -3.52 | 0.74 | 30 (88) | -6.36 | 0.88 | |
盛花期 Blossoming | 29 (85) | -4.05 | 0.76 | 31 (91) | -7.82 | 0.85 |
表3 1963-2007年间不同子时段物候期的平均偏差
Table 3 Mean phenological differences between the subintervals during the period from 1963 to 2007
物候期 Phenophase | 1990-2007比1963-1989 1990-2007 vs 1963-1989 | 1995-2007比1963-1994 1995-2007 vs 1963-1994 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
提前个数 (百分比) No. of advance (%) | 平均值 Mean | 标准误差 SE | 提前个数 (百分比) No. of advance (%) | 平均值 Mean | 标准误差 SE | ||
展叶始期 Leaf unfolding | 16 (47) | 0.17 | 0.51 | 27 (79) | -1.81 | 0.67 | |
展叶盛期 Full unfolding | 12 (35) | 1.07 | 0.53 | 25 (74) | -1.35 | 0.66 | |
始花期 First flowering | 29 (85) | -3.52 | 0.74 | 30 (88) | -6.36 | 0.88 | |
盛花期 Blossoming | 29 (85) | -4.05 | 0.76 | 31 (91) | -7.82 | 0.85 |
图3 1995-2007年对1963-1994年物候期的偏差频率分布图(A、B、C、D分别为展叶始期、展叶盛期、始花期和盛花期)。
Fig. 3 Frequency distribution of phenological deviations from the mean in four phenophases from 1995-2007 compared to 1963-1994. A, B, C, and D are leaf unfolding, full leaf unfolding, first flowering and blossoming, respectively.
物候期 Phenophase | 月份 Month | r2/n2 | s2 | r1/n1 | s1 | r/n | s |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
展叶始期 Leaf unfolding | 3月(8) Mar. (8) | - | - | -0.56/5 | -2.40 | -0.56/8 | -2.80 |
4月(26) Apr. (26) | -0.48/5 | -1.76 | -0.6/24 | -2.45 | -0.48/11 | -1.79 | |
展叶盛期 Full unfolding | 3月(6) Mar. (6) | - | - | -0.49/5 | -2.12 | -0.59/6 | -2.96 |
4月(26) Apr. (26) | -0.45/5 | -1.76 | -0.58/24 | -2.54 | -0.49/11 | -1.98 | |
5月(2) May (2) | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
始花期 First flowering | 2月(1) Feb. (1) | - | - | -0.54/1 | -4.22 | -0.78/1 | -4.41 |
3月(8) Mar. (8) | -0.41/2 | -2.33 | -0.62/7 | -2.63 | -0.60/7 | -2.85 | |
4月(14) Apr. (14) | -0.48/7 | -1.66 | -0.68/14 | -2.68 | -0.58/11 | -2.15 | |
5月(4) May (4) | -0.58/2 | -2.93 | -0.72/3 | -3.73 | -0.53/4 | -2.92 | |
6月(3) Jun. (3) | -0.78/1 | -4.4 | -0.81/2 | -4.40 | -0.52/2 | -3.31 | |
7月(3) Jul. (3) | -0.56/3 | -5.91 | -0.66/1 | -3.97 | |||
8月(1) Aug. (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
盛花期 Blossoming | 3月(8) Mar. (8) | -0.50/2 | -3.53 | -0.66/6 | -3.10 | -0.58/7 | -2.92 |
4月(15) Apr. (15) | -0.49/10 | -1.83 | -0.69/15 | -2.87 | -0.62/14 | -2.37 | |
5月(3) May (3) | -0.54/3 | -3.16 | -0.78/3 | -4.27 | -0.62/3 | -3.33 | |
6月(4) Jun. (4) | -0.68/2 | -4.28 | -0.71/3 | -5.04 | -0.46/1 | -4.46 | |
7月(3) Jul. (3) | -0.68/3 | -5.54 | -0.48/1 | -5.92 | |||
9月(1) Sept. (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
表4 4种物候期与气温的统计关系
Table 4 Statistic relationship between four phenophases and air temperature
物候期 Phenophase | 月份 Month | r2/n2 | s2 | r1/n1 | s1 | r/n | s |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
展叶始期 Leaf unfolding | 3月(8) Mar. (8) | - | - | -0.56/5 | -2.40 | -0.56/8 | -2.80 |
4月(26) Apr. (26) | -0.48/5 | -1.76 | -0.6/24 | -2.45 | -0.48/11 | -1.79 | |
展叶盛期 Full unfolding | 3月(6) Mar. (6) | - | - | -0.49/5 | -2.12 | -0.59/6 | -2.96 |
4月(26) Apr. (26) | -0.45/5 | -1.76 | -0.58/24 | -2.54 | -0.49/11 | -1.98 | |
5月(2) May (2) | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
始花期 First flowering | 2月(1) Feb. (1) | - | - | -0.54/1 | -4.22 | -0.78/1 | -4.41 |
3月(8) Mar. (8) | -0.41/2 | -2.33 | -0.62/7 | -2.63 | -0.60/7 | -2.85 | |
4月(14) Apr. (14) | -0.48/7 | -1.66 | -0.68/14 | -2.68 | -0.58/11 | -2.15 | |
5月(4) May (4) | -0.58/2 | -2.93 | -0.72/3 | -3.73 | -0.53/4 | -2.92 | |
6月(3) Jun. (3) | -0.78/1 | -4.4 | -0.81/2 | -4.40 | -0.52/2 | -3.31 | |
7月(3) Jul. (3) | -0.56/3 | -5.91 | -0.66/1 | -3.97 | |||
8月(1) Aug. (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
盛花期 Blossoming | 3月(8) Mar. (8) | -0.50/2 | -3.53 | -0.66/6 | -3.10 | -0.58/7 | -2.92 |
4月(15) Apr. (15) | -0.49/10 | -1.83 | -0.69/15 | -2.87 | -0.62/14 | -2.37 | |
5月(3) May (3) | -0.54/3 | -3.16 | -0.78/3 | -4.27 | -0.62/3 | -3.33 | |
6月(4) Jun. (4) | -0.68/2 | -4.28 | -0.71/3 | -5.04 | -0.46/1 | -4.46 | |
7月(3) Jul. (3) | -0.68/3 | -5.54 | -0.48/1 | -5.92 | |||
9月(1) Sept. (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
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